Harris vs. Trump latest presidential poll: Changing numbers show lead widening

Democrat Kamala Harris has wondered her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the latest national poll.

Morning Consult’s poll of more than 11,000 registered voters shows Vice President Harris up 4 percentage points over former President Trump – 48% to 44% with 4% remaining undecided. The latest numbers show a 1 percentage point improvement for Harris from the prior week’s poll.

Harris has not trailed Trump in a single day daily tracking survey since President Joe Biden backed out of the race at the end of July.

Both candidates have strong support from their respective parties with 90% of Democrats backing Harris and 89% of Republicans supporting Trump. Independents are now favoring Harris, however, 42% to 38% with 20% either supporting someone else or listed as undecided.

More voters than not hold favorable opinions of Harris – 50% to 45%, a record high net favorability for the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to Morning Consult. Trump’s net favorability improved to a negative 5, the latest in an upward trend over the past two weeks.

Vice presidential candidate approval

Approval numbers for Tim Walz, Harris’ vice presidential running mate, and Trump’s vice presidential pick JD Vance, are the same – 39%. Vance’s disapproval rating is higher, however, at 41% compared to 36% for Walz. Vance has seen his net favorability approve in recent weeks, up from a low point of a negative 13.

The Morning Consult poll was conducted Aug. 16-18 among 11,501 registered voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 1 percentage point.

National average

FiveThirtyEight.com’s average of nationals polls, including the Morning Consult poll, has Harris up by just under 3 percentage points – 46.7% to 43.8%. Ninety-five percent of poll averages tracked by FiveThirtyEight.com are projected to fall in this range.