Harris vs. Trump: New poll shows 7 point swing in presidential race
A recent poll shows a massive swing in the 2024 race for the White House.
The poll, conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst from July 29-Aug. 1, showed 43% of those asked said they would back presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris compared to 40% who were supporting former President Donald Trump. The numbers reflect a 7 point pro-Harris swing from a January 2024 poll when Trump led then challenger President Joe Biden 39% to 36%.
READ MORE: Harris vs. Trump: Latest polling numbers show major change in race
“Harris’s entry has really shaken up the presidential race,” Jesse Rhodes, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll said in a statement. “Where Donald Trump was once heavily favored over Joe Biden, we now see Harris with a narrow lead. This appears to be driven by big shifts among young voters, African Americans and Latinx Americans toward Harris. Moderates also appear to have shifted dramatically to Harris.
“The 2024 presidential election is still extremely close, but it’s an entirely different race than it was a month ago,” Rhodes added.
Of those who are backing Trump, 75% said they were doing so because of his first-term accomplishments followed by 48% who said he will save America. Twenty-seven percent, each, said he was the best president America has ever had or are casting their vote because he is the Republican nominee. Those who aren’t voting for Trump said he was a threat to America (66%) followed by 41% who said he was responsible for the Jan. 6 insurrection.
Sixty-six percent of Harris supporters said they are voting for the vice president because she represents a new generation. Thirty-seven percent said she will strengthen America’s global standing. Twenty-seven percent said they are backing Harris because she is the Democratic pick for the White House. The majority of people who said they weren’t voting for Harris – 77% – said it was because they thought she would consider the policies of the Biden administration; 49% said she would weaken America’s global standing.
When asked to compare who would handle issues the best, Trump received his highest scores for the economy, taxes, crime and immigration (all 53%) as well as the Israel-Hamas War (54%) and Ukraine-Russia War (52%). Harris received her highest marks for reproductive rights (61%), handling climate change (60%), healthcare (58%) and education (56%).
The poll included a nationwide sample of 1,000. It has a margin of error of 3.8%.