Government report shows economic upsides of immigration despite voter sentiment
A new report by the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the recent surge of immigration will have positive effects on the U.S. economy even ten years into the future.
CBO analyzed the estimated surge in migrants (about 8.7 million) from 2021 to 2026 and the incremental impacts it will have as it boosts economic activity through 2034. The report’s findings contrast with several recent polls that show rising anti-immigrant sentiment across the country as Election Day approaches.
“With fewer than 100 days left in the presidential campaign, the stakes could not be higher and the contrasts couldn’t be more sharp or consequential,” said Vanessa Cárdenas, the executive director of the nonprofit America’s Voice. “The right wing portrayal of immigration and immigrants as a national extinction-level crisis is telling and ugly. As an organization, our ‘candidate’ is immigration reform and fighting for an America that recognizes immigrants and immigration as national strengths.”
The report mirrored already-existing studies that show how immigration boosts the American economy and wages. According to CBO’s reasoning, migrant taxes outweigh the cost of social services and will increase federal revenue by $1.2 trillion, stimulating the economy in addition to mandatory spending and interest on debt.
“This is a very good time to expand legal immigration, make it a more orderly and an employment-driven process and benefit from it,” University of California, Davis researcher Giovanni Peri told Forbes.
But a new poll shows that more U.S. adults want to decrease immigration. It is the first time since 2005 that the majority of respondents (55 percent) indicated that sentiment. According to a February Gallup poll, nearly 30 percent of Americans rank immigration as their top issue this election.
Gallup researchers said the shift in attitude may be attributable to unauthorized border crossings reaching record-breaking numbers late last year. Though levels have dropped significantly, they still remain above pre-pandemic levels. Anti-immigrant sentiment was highest in the early to mid-1990s when California received a surge of migrants and after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
Polling shows 64 percent of Americans presently view immigration negatively — down from 77 percent in 2020 but higher than 52 percent in 2001. Researchers said negative views have largely been driven by Republicans.
One-quarter of registered voters said a candidate must share their views on immigration to gain their vote, with Republicans more likely to feel this way.
“The evidence is overwhelming that immigrants make our communities grow and flourish. Immigrants participate and contribute to their communities, grow the economy, pay taxes and make our neighborhoods stronger,” said Heidi Altman, the director of federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center. “We need policymakers to reject rhetoric around immigration that is rooted in fear; this rhetoric is not only dangerous, it leads to bad policy that causes grave harm and exacerbates existing problems.”
The CBO report also found that increases in immigration tend to raise state and local governments’ spending — mostly on education, health care, and housing — more than their revenues, but also found that most new arrivals are under 55 years old and thus of working age. They are likely to participate in the labor force, which will increase local economic growth, according to the CBO. In total, migrants in the surge population will pay about $788 billion in income and payroll taxes through the 10-year period.
The agency anticipates that the effects on revenues and mandatory spending will continue growing well beyond 2034.