Republican Caroleene Dobson is running in a congressional district that was drawn last year “for a Democrat” but which could be competitive for Republicans, according to the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Richard Hudson, chair of the NRCC, in his first public comments about the 2nd district congressional race in Alabama, told Punchbowl News that “if only a few” of the district’s Black voters backed Dobson, then the Republicans could be competitive.

He also called Democratic challenger Shormari Figures as “fairly weak.”

The piece is headlined, “Hudson feeling bullish on redistricted Alabama seat that leans Democratic.” The seat, in fact, remains labeled “likely Democratic” by Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics at the University of Virigina.

The lack of shifting in the 2nd district is notable, amid struggles by President Joe Biden in polling following a poor performance during last month’s presidential debate.

Cook Political Report moved six states toward Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in its presidential predictions, including Arizona and Nevada, which feature key House and Senate races. It has not shifted congressional contests from Democratic to Republican.

David Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst for The Cook Political Report, said there is less unpredictability in the 2nd congressional district in Alabama due to the state’s history of racial polarized voting.

“Our sense is that the racially polarized voting in this seat makes it less flippable for Republicans than other seats where there are more independent voters, but if Republicans begin to spend more resources here, we could reevaluate,” Wasserman told AL.com.

Hudson’s comments to Punchbowl News did not indicate the NRCC’s commitment to investing into the 2nd district contest. Dobson, according to the latest campaign finance filings, outraised Figures in the second quarter.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added the 2nd congressional district to its “Red to Blue” program in May. It was the first time in 16 years an Alabama Democratic congressional race had gotten the DCCC’s attention for a program aimed at helping candidates with fundraising and organizational support.

Justin Chermol, a DCCC spokesperson, said in the Punchbowl News piece, “Is anyone surprised Richard Hudson wants another abortion banning, Project 2025 loving, Freedom Caucus wannabe to join the GOP Conference?”

The seat is an open contest after the U.S. Supreme Court, in June 2023, ruled Alabama’s congressional map violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It was redrawn to give Black voters a better opportunity to elect a candidate of their choosing.

In October, a federal court approved the newly drawn congressional map for Alabama that changed the 2nd District from one that was solidly Republican to one where a Democrat can win.

The Black voting age population of the district is 49%, and analysis submitted to the court showed that Black-preferred candidates – who are Democrats – received more votes in the district than their Republican opponents in 16 of 17 recent elections.

The redrawn district, which takes in all or part of 13 counties from Montgomery to Mobile, from the Georgia line to the Mississippi line.