Hurricane Beryl gets stronger: Here’s the forecast path
Hurricane Beryl — a rare, history-making Category 5 storm — got even stronger overnight and Tuesday morning as it headed across the Caribbean toward Jamaica.
A hurricane warning remained in effect for Jamaica on Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center said Beryl, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2024 and the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, could move very close to or over the island on Wednesday, potentially bringing “life-threatening wind and storm surge.”
Beryl’s winds were sustained at 165 mph on Tuesday morning. Beryl attained Category 5 status late Monday night, then got even stronger overnight.
The storm moved through the Windward Islands on Monday morning, causing devastating damage to the island of Carriacou, which is part of Grenada, and other areas in the island chain.
Beryl was a top-end Category 4 hurricane at that point with 150 mph winds.
The hurricane center expects Beryl to begin to weaken today as wind shear increases in the Caribbean, but Beryl could still be a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) when it approaches Jamaica on Wednesday.
As of 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday, Category 5 Hurricane Beryl was located about 625 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and was on a path to the west-northwest at 22 mph.
On the hurricane center’s official forecast track, Beryl will pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday.
The forecast then shows Beryl continuing westward and potentially making landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday as a hurricane — but not a major hurricane.
The long-range track, which is more uncertain, suggests Beryl will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and head into the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. The end of the forecast period is early Sunday, and it suggests Beryl, still a tropical storm — will be crossing the southern Gulf with a potential final landfall on Mexico’s Gulf Coast.
However, the so-called “cone of uncertainty” has grown in the past few forecast periods and now touches the very southernmost part of Texas.
Beryl is not expected to be a threat to the Alabama coast.
A hurricane warning remained in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch has been issued for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A tropical storm warning continues for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, and the south coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault.
Beryl could bring a 4- to 6-foot storm surge along the coast of Jamaica, and 1 to 3 feet in Hispaniola and the Caymans.
Four to 8 inches of rain will be possible across Jamaica, and 2 to 6 inches will be possible for the southern part of Hispaniola.
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
The hurricane center also continued to track a tropical wave following in the footsteps of Beryl. On Tuesday morning it was in the central Atlantic.
Forecasters had originally thought it could become a tropical depression by midweek, but its chances of developing have dwindled in the past few days and as of Tuesday morning were at only 30 percent.
There were no other systems being watched for development as of Tuesday.
The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.