Alabama has long been an anti-abortion state where voters overwhelmingly enshrined the “rights of the unborn” in 2018, and where the state has had a near abortion ban in place since the overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022.

But in newly-drawn and majority Black 2nd congressional district – home to a rare competitive congressional race in Alabama – are the dynamics different than on the statewide level?

It’s a question that, among other issues, looms over the race between Democratic candidate Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is hammering Dobson for what they say is an “extremist” position on the issue.

In a mass email last month, the DCCC charged that Dobson – if elected – would “use Alabama’s draconian abortion restrictions as a model for the nation,” that includes banning the procedure “even in cases of rape or incest” and for “jailing doctors for up to 99 years for performing abortions.”

Candidate positions

The Dobson campaign countered last week by claiming that the DCCC is circulating an article written by the American Journal News. A spokesperson for the Dobson campaign said the DCCC and Figures campaign are “completely fabricating” Dobson’s position and relying on “partisan Democrat websites disguised as ‘news blogs’ as their ‘sources.’”

“My position has always been that abortion is an issue better left for each state to decide, and exemptions should be put in place for cases of rape, incest, and the life of the mother,” Dobson said in a statement to AL.com. “The DCCC is proving that it will tell any lie, spread any falsehood, and distort any position in order to win this seat. The voters of the Second District deserve a representative who will shoot straight and tell them the truth, not one that hides behind the distortions of D.C. insiders.”

Figures said that relying on a state like Alabama to decide the fate of abortion will erode women’s reproductive healthcare.

“Every person should have the freedom to make their own reproductive healthcare decisions without the government or politicians telling them what to do,” he said. “I am for protecting women’s freedoms. Alabama Republicans are fighting to restrict women’s access to reproductive healthcare – banning abortion without exception, even in the cases where a pregnancy results from a woman being brutally raped.”

Figures also linked abortion rights and IVF together, saying the collective policymaking and decision-making by GOP officials is curbing healthcare access for women. Republican leaders have criticized Democrats for months for attempting to link the two issues together.

“Their obsession with controlling women has contributed to the closure of birthing facilities across the state, the lack of reproductive health practitioners in Alabama, and has even limited families’ access to IVF,” Figures said. “Contraception will undoubtedly by next (to be restricted).”

He added, “This November, women in the Second District will choose between basic freedoms for themselves and their families or turning their power over to extremists in Washington who want to govern their bodies. I stand with women to make their own healthcare decisions.”

Dobson, on Monday, said she is “absolutely pro-IVF,” saying that one in six babies in Alabama are born through IVF or other fertility treatments.

“I truly believe IVF and the IVF process allows the miracle of life for those who never though they’d ever be able to have children or have a family,” Dobson said.

The issue facing Figures is whether abortion and reproductive rights – issues that poll strongest for Democrats nationally – will emerge as a top issue on Nov. 5 within the 2nd congressional district.

Republicans question issue

To GOP strategists, other issues are likely to rise above the fray to include the economy, health care, immigration control, President Joe Biden’s fitness for re-election and former President Donald Trump’s criminal cases and polarization on the electorate.

The 2nd district is an open contest after the U.S. Supreme Court last June ruled that an Alabama Republican-drawn map was in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It was redrawn to give Black voters a better opportunity to elect a candidate of their choosing, which turns out to be in the 2nd district. The new district – which stretches from Montgomery to Mobile and includes a host of rural and mostly Black counties in Southwest Alabama – has a Black voting age population of 49%.

The congressional district was a +12 advantage for Biden during the 2020 election. Alabama, as a state, was a +25.4 advantage for Trump.

“I don’t see abortion being the issue defining the race,” said Montgomery-based GOP pollster Brent Buchanan who estimates gun control as a more important issue for the majority-Black district. “This is a heavily minority district, and African-American voters, according to our most recent national survey, deprioritize the issue significantly over inflation and the economy.”

Jon Gray, a Mobile-based GOP strategist, said he believes the fate of the U.S. House majority will come into play as the campaign moves forward. The House is a 219-213 advantage for Republicans, though a host of national pundits believe the Democratic Party has an opportunity to retake it.

Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both label the 2nd district as “likely Democrat,” giving the advantage to Figures. Gray, though, said the district is a “true battleground,” fought in a state with a historically weak Democratic Party.

Gray said he believes Alabama Republicans should be proud over how they handled the IVF issue during the legislative session by tweaking concerns over legal liability and ensuring the practice remains within the state. It’s a move Dobson said she was grateful to see state lawmakers address rapidly.

Gray also said that the state GOP’s position isn’t necessarily aligned with other conservatives, namely the Southern Baptist Convention, which passed a resolution last month opposing IVF.

“(The Democrats) wax and wane over the sanctity of life but that is not the crux of IVF issue,” Gray said. “It’s less about sanctity of life and more (about) liability and protections. I think Alabama handled (that issue) well and quickly.”

Strong Democratic polling

Democratic analysts believe abortion and reproductive rights are a strong issue even in ruby red Alabama which has become Ground Zero over the fate of in vitro fertilization.

Polling suggests they are right. A majority of Alabamians (55%) say abortion should be legal in most or all cases, according to a poll released in February by the Public Religion Research Institute. Only seven states, including neighboring Mississippi (49%) and Tennessee (49%), included a minority of residents who said abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

Only 12% of Alabamians polled by PRRI said abortion should be illegal in all cases, and only 37% of Alabama residents supported the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

“Anyone who believes abortion access is not an important issue in Alabama is living in a time warp before Roe v. Wade was overturned,” said Democratic pollster Zac McCrary. “Certainly, voters in the 2nd district place a high priority on their pocketbook. But voters can walk and chew gum at the same time and be focused on multiple issues.”

He added, “Fundamentally, any candidate who supports the current Alabama abortion law that denies access to abortion even to victims of rape and incest is deeply out of step with voters and should be expected to be held accountable for such an unpopular position in November.”

Mary Zeigler, a professor at the University of California-Davis School of Law and an expert on the politics of reproduction, said the statements from the candidates mirrors what is going on nationally.

“You’ve seen some Republicans, most notably Trump, saying this is an issue of state’s rights and that there is no need to worry because it’s something that neither the president nor Congress will do anything about,” she said. “But Democrats are pushing back saying there are threats and Republicans are sweeping them under the rug.”

Related content: ‘Very dangerous issue for them’: How Republicans regroup after Alabama court’s IVF ruling

Zeigler said the most concern raised of late is the potential repeal of the Comstock Act of 1873. The law prevents the shipment of articles intended for producing an abortion, and Democratic lawmakers are attempting to rescind the law’s abortion provisions.

The question isn’t so much who is better capturing where voters are at because it seems to be the Democrats, Zeigler said. “The question is whether Republicans will convince voters they won’t do anything that voters dislike enough and that they can vote Republican.”

Turnout and unpredictability

Jess Brown, a longtime state political observer and retired professor of politics at Athens State University, said the biggest issue facing Figures and Dobson is who can develop the best get-out-the-vote efforts and “organizational muscle” than any particular issue like abortion and immigration.

“This race will be so close that it will come down to who will win the turnout fight,” said Brown. “The issues and the partisan stuff is just frozen in place.”

Zeigler, though, said the abortion and reproductive rights issue might be out of the candidates’ hands. She said Alabama courts could be at the center of the IVF debate again after families at the center of the state Supreme Court ruling over frozen embryos asked a judge to declare the new state law granting legal immunity to IVF providers as unconstitutional.

“That’s one of the features of abortion politics now,” Zeigler said. “The candidates don’t control the terms of the debate. The Republicans may be trying to say, ‘this is what you need to focus on,’ but then you have other actors like the U.S. Supreme Court, the Alabama State Supreme Court who could get involved anytime and could shake up what the race might mean.”