Will tropical disturbance in Gulf affect Alabama?

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday continued to track Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and tropical storm warnings were in effect for the Texas coast as well as Mexico.

The disturbance, which could make landfall in Mexico in the next few days, could strengthen to Tropical Storm Alberto by Wednesday, forecasters said. If it does, that will be the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Here’s the forecast path for the storm:

Potential Tropical Cyclone One could strengthen to Tropical Storm Alberto on Wednesday.NHC

The hurricane center will also continue to keep an eye on the Gulf for the possible development of a second system by this weekend. That would-be system has a low chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next seven days.

And there’s a third disturbance forecasters are monitoring in the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas. That disturbance, which also has a low chance of development, could affect the Atlantic coast of the Southeast U.S. by Friday.

None of the systems is expected to directly affect Alabama. However, the stormy weather from Potential Tropical Cyclone One is to blame for causing rip currents along Alabama’s beaches as well as northwest Florida, and there will be a high rip current risk in place through Friday night.

The National Weather Service in Mobile is also warning about high surf, and a high surf advisory will also be in place through Thursday night.

Alabama coastal hazards

A stormy Gulf will bring a high risk of rip currents and rough surf to Alabama’s beaches this week. Swimmers beware.NWS

Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located about 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, as of 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday and was moving to the north at 6 mph, according to the hurricane center.

The disturbance had winds of 40 mph, which is tropical storm strength. However, it is still not organized enough to be classified as a tropical storm, according to forecasters.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande River and the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

According to the hurricane center a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

The disturbance is expected to be a big rainmaker above all else and could spread deadly flash flooding far from where it makes landfall.

Forecasts from the hurricane center show parts of Texas getting 5 to 10 inches of rain or more from the system through the end of the work week:

Tropical rainfall

Here’s where most of the rain from the tropical disturbance in the Gulf is expected. Parts of Texas could get 8 inches or more. Alabama is not expected to get rain from the storm.NHC

The rain from the tropical disturbance is expected to miss Alabama, but some scattered rain and storms will be possible over the next few days, mainly near the coast, according to the weather service in Mobile.

It’s too soon to say what could evolve with the second Gulf disturbance, which could develop this weekend. The hurricane center expects it to also track slowly to the north or northwest, and the weather service said it could stay to the south of Alabama.

However, forecasters will be keeping a close eye on it in case that changes.

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and will last until Nov. 30. A very active season is expected with 17-25 named storms possible, according to NOAA forecasters.