The first tropical system of 2024 may form in the Gulf of Mexico this week — but Alabama is not the likely target.

The National Hurricane Center has been forecasting the development of a tropical disturbance for several days now, and as of Sunday afternoon it had indeed formed and was broad, spanning parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, Central America and the northwest Caribbean.

An area of low pressure is expected to form next — by Monday or Tuesday — over the southwestern Gulf.

The hurricane center said conditions were favorable for it to continue to develop and said a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by the middle of the week.

The system is expected to track to the west or west-northwest, in the general direction of Mexico’s Gulf Coast.

However, as with many early-season systems it is expected to be very broad and could spread very heavy rainfall, and flash flooding, as far away as Texas and Louisiana by midweek.

Those areas could see 7 inches of rainfall or so over the next week, according to forecasts from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center:

The hurricane center on Sunday afternoon raised the probability of a tropical depression forming to high, 70 percent.

The system is not expected to directly impact Alabama, but Alabama beaches already are facing a high risk of rip currents and rough seas, and that could continue through at least Thursday morning.

That’s not the only potential system the hurricane center is monitoring. On Sunday forecasters added an area to watch in the southwestern Atlantic a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas.

Forecasters said an area of low pressure is expected to form in that vicinity by midweek.

The hurricane center said some slow development of that system could be possible as it tracks to the west or west-northwest.

As of Sunday afternoon it had a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next seven days.

The Atlantic basin has not had a named storm so far in 2024. The first two names on the storm list are Alberto and Beryl.