Trump vs. Biden: Who’s ahead in the national polls? Latest predictions

The latest national poll shows President Joe Biden taking the lead over former President Donald Trump. The numbers reflect the first time in a month the presumptive Democratic nominee has led his Republican rival.

Morning Consult’s poll, conducted June 7-9, shows 44% of voters said they would cast their ballots for Biden compared to 43% who planned to vote for Trump. Eight percent said they would vote for someone else; 5% were unsure.

Among Democrats, 86% said they would vote for Biden compared to 87% of Republicans who backed Trump. Trump held a slim lead among independents – 37% – compared to 34% who backed Biden and 18% who favored someone else.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 10,260 registered voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 1 percentage point.

The razor-thin margin of error in the latest poll is reflected across the board, according to tracking by 538.com. An average of national polls shows Trump as the choice of 40.9% of voters compared to Biden’s 40%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is tracking at 9.4%, a percentage that’s remained fairly consistent in recent weeks.

Only one of the polls used in the 538.com average shows more than a 2 percentage point difference between the candidates. That was a June 4-5 poll by Emerson College that had Trump leading Biden by 6 percentage points when Kennedy was factored in the race. In a head-to-head matchup, the Emerson poll showed Biden and Trump locked at 50% each.