A rise in inflation means Social Security beneficiaries are on track for a higher-than-earlier-projected cost of living adjustment for 2025. That’s not necessarily good news for recipients, however, who continue to see any increases disappear due to rising costs.

Nonpartisan advocacy group The Senior Citizens League has increased its prediction for the long-term cost-of-living-adjustment, or COLA, for 2025 to 2.6%, up from the previous month’s 1.75%. That increase is due to figures from the March Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers which came in at 3.5%.

A 2.6% increase would represent about $45 more a month for the average beneficiary. Last year’s increase was 3.2%, which boosted benefits by about $50 per month.

The problem is, senior citizens and other beneficiaries are paying inflated prices now, with any increase not being felt until January 2025.

“The time value of money isn’t your friend with Social Security COLAs. Any money you receive in the future isn’t worth as much as money in your hands now,” analysts at finance website The Motley Fool wrote. “This is a chronic issue with Social Security COLAs. It’s more problematic, though, when inflation is higher. Unfortunately, inflation is now rising instead of declining.”

COLA estimates change monthly, based on the latest CPI data. The final amount for 2025 will likely differ from the estimates because it’s computed based on the average inflation rate during the third quarter – July, August, and September – and then compared to the same period a year prior.

Six months’ worth of data still needs to be collected, leaving plenty of room for change, TSCL pointed out.