AL.com NFL mock draft 3: Trades shake up first round

Whether NFL mock drafts are seeking to predict which player each team will pick or impart which player each team should pick, most of them begin with a built-in flaw: They don’t have trades – and the first round will have trades.

Last year’s draft featured seven first-round trades. Four of the top six picks were traded, including one twice.

With each of the first three teams scheduled to select on April 25 in Detroit in urgent need of a quarterback, the willingness to move one of the top picks would seem limited. But the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots aren’t the only teams that need quarterbacks, so there will be moving and shaking going on.

Two weeks before the first pick is made, here’s a first round with seven trade possibilities included:

1. Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams by the Chicago Bears

The Bears cleared the way for their new quarterback by sending Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

2. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels by the Minnesota Vikings (from the Washington Commanders)

Washington needs a quarterback. The Commanders traded last year’s starter, Sam Howell, to the Seattle Seahawks last month. But Washington needs a lot more, too. The Commanders will get a quarterback, but Minnesota didn’t trade for an extra first-round pick this offseason to draft 11th and 23rd. Because the Vikings don’t pick again in 2024 until No. 108, Minnesota will need to part with two of its three 2025 second-round selections, as well as 2024′s 11th and 23rd picks, to make this trade, For that, Minnesota gets its choice of the non-Caleb Williams quarterbacks.

3. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye by the New England Patriots

New England jumps on the quarterback train again – three years after selecting Alabama QB Mac Jones in the first round. The Patriots traded Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier last month for next-to-nothing, and now have the opportunity to select another quarterback from Michigan. That worked out well for New England, but the Patriots aren’t picking off a pro-day performance.

4. Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. by the Chicago Bears (from the Arizona Cardinals)

The Houston Texans provide a blueprint at last year’s draft when they took Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud at No. 2, then traded with the Cardinals to take Alabama pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3. Houston got the NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, a division title and a playoff victory a year after being bad enough to pick second.

Chicago has only four picks in this year’s draft. But the Bears already have 11 choices in the 2025 draft, so they can overpay to give their rookie quarterback a wide-receiver corps of Harrison, Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. The ninth selection in this year’s draft and Chicago’s two second-rounders in next year’s draft get that done.

5. LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers by the Buffalo Bills (from the Los Angeles Chargers)

Do the Chargers start the Jim Harbaugh era with LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers or the top offensive tackle? Neither. Instead, Los Angeles has a team with 10 picks in this year’s draft and four picks in next year’s first two rounds that is desperate for a difference-making wide receiver and isn’t going to sit around for Georgia’s Ladd McConkey at No. 28.

For the 28th and 60th selections in this year’s draft and Buffalo’s 2025 first-round pick, the Chargers allow the Bills to get what they want. And Los Angeles still will get a first-round offensive tackle.

6. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers by the New York Giants

The Giants yielded 85 sacks in 2023, so why not make the first offensive-tackle pick? For one thing, the Giants signed five free-agent offensive linemen. For another, if Daniel Jones is the quarterback, as coach Brian Daboll has asserted, here’s a big helping hand for him.

7. Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt by the Tennessee Titans

The Titans’ offseason makeover continues in the draft with their new left offensive tackle.

8. Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner by the Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are out of the quarterback sweepstakes after signing Kirk Cousins in free agency. Atlanta also signed wide receiver Darnell Mooney, a former Gadsden City High School standout, as a wide-receiver upgrade. That gives the Falcons the opportunity to make the first selection on defense of the 2024 draft.

9. Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell by Arizona Cardinals (from the Chicago Bears)

With one of the choices gained by trading the No. 4 pick to the Bears, Arizona gets the first cornerback of the 2024 draft.

10. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy by the Denver Broncos (from the New York Jets)

With the Washington Commanders now set to pick 11th because of their trade with the Minnesota Vikings, the Broncos get a little panicked at No. 12 about losing their quarterback target. That prompts them to swap first-round picks with the Jets, who also get the 76th selection for their cooperation.

11. Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold by the Washington Commanders (from the Minnesota Vikings)

Washington yielded the most passing yards and touchdown passes in the NFL last season.

12. Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze by the New York Jets (from the Denver Broncos)

New York gets the player it would have picked at No. 10 and a third-round selection as a bonus. Aaron Rodgers throwing to wide receivers Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Odunze? The Jets won’t have the fewest yards in the AFC again in 2024.

13. Oregon State offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga by the Cincinnati Bengals (from the Las Vegas Raiders)

Is signing Trent Brown to a one-year contract in free agency the answer to filling the vacancy left at right tackle when former Alabama standout Jonah Williams departed for the Arizona Cardinals in free agency? Here’s the answer.

The Bengals have 10 picks in this year’s draft. The Raiders could use some extra capital to trade into the late first round or high second round for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon quarterback Bo Nix.

A five-spot move costs Cincinnati the 18th, 80th and 97th choices and allows the Bengals to make the next offensive-tackle selection instead of the New Orleans Saints.

14. Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu by the New Orleans Saints

Which team is going to mix up first-round tackles Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fautanu and Olumuyiwa Fashanu on their draft card? With uncertainty about the health of Ryan Ramczyk, the Saints go with Fashanu.

15. Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins by the Indianapolis Colts

The Colts gave up the most points in the AFC last season, so it’s either Wiggins or pass-rushers Jared Verse of Florida State or Laiatu Latu of UCLA here.

16. Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse by the Seattle Seahawks

After the Colts pass on a pass-rusher, the Seahawks go with one over Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham, a decision made a little easier by the return of tackle George Fant via free agency.

17. LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. by the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency, but they signed wide receiver Gabriel Davis. Jacksonville needs more to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence moving forward again.

18. Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry by Las Vegas Raiders (by the Cincinnati Bengals)

Las Vegas did not have a cornerback play at least 70 percent of its defensive snaps in 2023, and the Raiders have not addressed their secondary in free agency. With McKinstry getting a good report on his NFL Scouting Combine medical re-check this week, Las Vegas can feel safe with its choice.

19. Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson by the Dallas Cowboys (from the Los Angeles Rams)

The Cowboys took some hits on the offensive line in free agency, including losing center Tyler Biadasz to division rival Washington. But trading up for a center?

Dallas figured it could pick Powers-Johnson at No. 24, but the Cowboys have gotten cold feet about what the Pittsburgh Steelers might do at No. 21.

For the 24th and 87th selections, Dallas gets its man, and with 12 picks now in the 2024 draft, the Rams gain the ability to move as needed in the next two days.

20. Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Which does Pittsburgh need more to make its signing of quarterback Russell Wilson a success: A stronger offensive line or a receiver to pair with former Hoover High School standout George Pickens? After dumping wide receiver Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, the Steelers go with the pass-catcher. Wilson still has good mobility.

21. UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu by the Miami Dolphins

Free agency and the injury to Jaelan Phillips hit the Miami defense hard. Finding Latu here will help.

22. Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean by the Philadelphia Eagles

Are the seasons starting to catch up to Philadelphia cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry, a former Pleasant Grove High School and Samford standout? The Eagles gave up more passing yards and more TD passes than every team except the Washington Commanders in 2023.

23. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix by the Washington Commanders (from the Minnesota Vikings)

Washington gets a quarterback, not at No. 2 but at No. 23. The number here is 61, though, as in the number of college starts made by the former Pinson Valley High School standout.

24. Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II by Los Angeles Rams (from the Dallas Cowboys)

Can the Rams get lightning to strike twice? They hit the Hall of Fame jackpot with an undersized defensive lineman when they drafted Aaron Donald. He retired this offseason as a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

25. Alabama offensive tackle J.C. Latham by the Green Bay Packers

The Packers have been renewing their historic connection with the Crimson Tide this offseason with the acquisition of running back Josh Jacobs and safety Xavier McKinney in free agency. After bidding adieu to tackle David Bakhtiari this offseason, Green Bay gets another Alabama building block.

26. Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Barton’s position versatility and ability make him a plug-and-play pick.

27. Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson by the Arizona Cardinals

Robinson joins Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell back at No. 9 as Arizona’s first-round upgrades on defense.

28. Washington offensive tackle Troy Fautanu by the Los Angeles Chargers (from the Buffalo Bills)

The Chargers are tickled to find Fautanu available this late after trading down.

29. Illinois defensive tackle Johnny Newton by the Detroit Lions

The Lions mastered the draft last year, and they start off right this time around with help where they need it.

30. Georgia offensive tackle Amarius Mims by the Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens lost right tackle Morgan Moses in free agency and have left tackle Ronnie Stanley entering the final season of his contract.

31. Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. by the Las Vegas Raiders (from the San Francisco 49ers)

To get back in the first round, the Raiders use their 44th selection and the 80th pick that they received when they traded out of No. 13. Could Las Vegas have sat tight and gotten Penix at No. 44? Possibly, maybe even probably. But the Raiders don’t chance it.

Las Vegas now has a fully stocked quarterbacks room. But do they have a QB that can make them competitive with the Kansas City Chiefs?

32. Oklahoma offensive tackle Tyler Guyton by the Kansas City Chiefs

Obviously, the Chiefs are going to take a replacement for cornerback L’Jarius Sneed or bring in Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, a guy even Patrick Mahomes can’t overthrow. Kansas City has been making picks to prepare for Sneed’s departure for the past two years, and the signing of free agent Hollywood Brown filled the speed receiver role. Kansas City makes a practical pick.

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Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter at @AMarkG1.