Alabama’s the ultimate Final Four underdog and doesn’t seem to mind

There was something cathartic about Alabama’s Elite Eight win Saturday night.

That emotional release carried over into Sunday as the Crimson Tide returned to Tuscaloosa like conquering heroes. Coach Nate Oats clutched that regional title trophy like an offspring.

This proud program with a history of March meltdowns was finally getting to play in April. So much of the celebration was about making the program’s first Final Four rather than the idea of playing in it.

All understandable given the history and the satisfaction of removing its rival’s five-year-old bragging right regarding the Final Four. And there was something unique about watching a fanbase so accustomed to football celebrations find a new itch to be scratched — a new joy where there had been varying degrees and disappointment and apathy.

The job, however, is not over.

If making the Final Four was previously unthinkable, wrap your mind around being two wins away from a national title.

That’s also where some of the reality sets in for what’s already an overachieving team.

While beating North Carolina in the Sweet 16 felt unlikely on paper, the Tar Heels entered Thursday night’s game favored by just 4.5 points.

UConn is a whole different monster.

The defending national champions are an absolute machine right now and Vegas isn’t giving Alabama much of a shot.

The Huskies (35-3) opened as an 11.5-point favorite to beat Alabama at 7:49 p.m. CT Saturday in Glendale, Arizona. That’s a bigger spread than Purdue (-10) to beat a No. 11 seed like North Carolina State.

In fact, it’s one of the biggest spreads in the last 20-plus years of the Final Four.

Since 2003, only one semifinal game had a wider spread. Gonzaga was a 14-point favorite over UCLA (team that bounced Alabama) in the 2021 Final Four. The Bulldogs needed a buzzer beater from just inside halfcourt to escape a 93-90 overtime winner that afternoon but there would be no upset that day.

Over the past three years, Final Four favorites won five of the six semifinal games and covered the spread half of the time. And in the past 20 years, four teams entered as underdogs getting 8 or more points. None have won but three covered the spread.

“When people keep doubting us,” Alabama star guard Mark Sears said Monday on the Paul Finebaum Show, “that’s what we feed off of.”

Good, well there’s more.

A few quick bullet points:

  • UConn is 26-12 against the spread, covering 68.4% of the time. Alabama, on the other hand, is 21-15 against the spread (58.3% cover rate).
  • ESPN’s BPI gives UConn a 71.6% chance of winning this one.
  • Even worse on KenPom as Alabama is given just a 23% chance of victory.

Speaking of KenPom, its ranking off offensive and defensive efficiencies has UConn somewhere in the realm of perfection. It is No. 1 in offensive efficiency (Alabama is No. 3) and No. 4 on the defensive side (Alabama is No. 104).

The defending champs are on an 11-game winning streak with their only real postseason scare coming in a 95-90 win over St. John’s in the Big East semifinal. The 30-0 run in Saturday’s 77-52 emasculation of Illinois is downright freakish.

They have the size that’s troubled Alabama earlier in the season with 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan creating mismatches on both ends of the floor. The sophomore is making 68% of his shots in the NCAA tournament, averaging 10 rebounds while recording five blocks against Illinois and eight against Northwestern.

He’s one of five Huskies with double-figure scoring averages.

They’re balanced.

And they’re really good.

Alabama (25-11) has more experience in closer games, if there’s a silver lining visible with a squint. It won dog fights in each of the last three NCAA tournament games with different heroes emerging each time.

Perhaps there’s something to playing with little to lose or with house money, so to speak.

There will be some adjusting to the setting and the moment for Alabama. This is all new territory for the challenger while the defending champs not only know this stage, but they’ve also already conquered it.

And that physical stage presents its own challenge since this program hasn’t played in an NFL stadium converted to a center-stage basketball venue. That changes the perspective for shooters and this Crimson Tide team is going to need accuracy from the 3-point line to make this a fight.

But in the buildup to Saturday, few have given Alabama a prayer against UConn. All the talk is about the anticipated titanic showdown between the Huskies and Purdue in Monday night’s final.

Spoiling that would defy most logical thinking and precedent, but logical thinking and precedent didn’t send Alabama to its first Final Four.

So, who knows?

Because this tournament isn’t built on sure things and this Alabama team hasn’t been one to cooperate with preconceived storylines.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.