Alabama Crimson Tide March Madness odds: Can Bama win its first men’s basketball national title?
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The Madness of March is upon us, and the University of Alabama men’s basketball team only has three games remaining in the regular season.
Will the Crimson Tide win a second consecutive SEC regular season title, what seed will they garner in the NCAA Tournament and can they possibly turn it into their first-ever Final Four berth and a national championship?
Below we examine Alabama’s Final Four/national title odds and March Madness prospects.
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Alabama March Madness odds: To reach Final Four (best: +550)
After Wednesday night’s 103-88 victory at Ole Miss, the 14th-ranked Tide (20-8) has now won eight of its last 10 games and remains deadlocked with No. 4 Tennessee (22-6) atop the SEC at 12-3.
The two rivals meet Saturday night in Tuscaloosa (8 p.m. ESPN) to close out their home-and-home series. The Volunteers rolled to as 91-71 win in Knoxville on Jan. 20.
No. 18 South Carolina (23-5) is game off the SEC pace at 11-4 while No. 11 Auburn (21-7), No. 16 Kentucky (20-8) and No. 24 Florida (20-8) all are two games back at 10-5.
In ESPN guru Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology projections for the NCAA Tournament, Alabama garnered a No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region.
In all, Lunardi had seven SEC teams in the bracket — second only to the Big 12′s nine. Tennessee is his projected SEC tournament winner/automatic qualifier and was given a No. 2 seed in the South Region.
As for the consensus Final Four odds, coach Nate Oats’ squad has the 10th-best aggregate odds at +500, trailing Connecticut (+115), Purdue (+165), Houston (+165), Arizona (+275), Tennessee (+280), Auburn (+410), North Carolina (+410), Iowa State (+415) and Marquette (+445).
Do note, though, that the NCAA’s NET rankings and college hoops maven Ken Pomeroy do hold Bama in a higher regard at sixth and seventh, respectively, in their national rankings as of Thursday.
But if Alabama does wind up as a 3-seed in the Big Dance, it would be the program’s fifth-highest seed in 25 NCAA tourney appearances.
The Tide’s deepest NCAA run came in 2003-04 when it lost to eventual national-champion UConn in the West Regional final as a No. 8 seed.
Alabama, of course, was the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed a season ago but was upended by fifth-seeded San Diego State 71-64 in the South Regional semifinals.
In the 38 NCAA Tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams for the 1984-85 season, 17 3-seeds have made it to the Final Four. That includes three (2017, ‘18 and ‘19) of the five most recent tourneys.
That’s only an 11.2 percent chance based on the raw data above, so temper your expectations and bet Bama’s Final Four futures with a decent degree of caution.
In comparison, No. 2 seeds have had nearly double the Big Dance success, with 32 of the 152 total since 1985 (21.1%) making it to the Final Four.
Alabama March Madness odds: To win national championship (best: +2500)
Alabama’s top-ranked offense — No. 1 nationally in both points per game (91.5) and Pomeroy’s offensive efficiency (128.1 points per 100 possessions) ratings — certainly gives it a chance of cutting down the nets this April in Arizona.
But the Tide’s 99th-ranked defense (102.6 via Pomeroy) and its struggles (3-7) against top-level (Quadrant 1) NET foes, though, could bring about an early March end if the SEC’s second-leading scorer, Mark Sears (20.6 ppg), and the attack have an off-game.
As of Thursday, Alabama owned the ninth-highest national title consensus odds at +2200. Two SEC foes — Tennessee (fifth at +1400) and Auburn (seventh at +1975) — ranked higher.
Going back to modern NCAA tourney seed performance, 12 3-seeds have reached the national championship game over the last 38 tournaments with four — UConn in 2011, Florida in 2006, Syracuse in 2003 and Michigan in 1989 — winning it all.
Interestingly, that’s almost exactly the same number of No. 2 seeds to gain the title game (12) and cut down the final nets (5) during that same span.
So, as usual, Big Dance success will boil down to a matter of matchups, favorable/unfavorable draws and clutch performances in crunch time.
But, any way you slice it, winning its first national men’s hoops title is going to be a monumental task for an Alabama program that has advanced past the Sweet 16 in only one of its previous 24 NCAA tourney appearances.