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Wild Card weekend kicks off in Houston on Saturday afternoon as the unlikely AFC South-winning Texans host the AFC North runners-up the Cleveland Browns to get a bumper weekend of play-in postseason action started.

Here, we detail some best betting tips and picks for the big game.

NFL Wild Card Browns vs. Texans odds preview

Two of the NFL’s surprise packages in 2023 meet in the first round of the playoffs in a tantalizing matchup of old and new at quarterback as the fifth-seeded Browns visit the fourth-seeded Texans.

First up, the Texans’ reward for beating the Indianapolis Colts a week ago and winning the AFC South is a bout with a daunting Browns team.

Rookie C.J. Stroud led Houston to the divisional crown in his first season in the NFL in a Rookie of the Year-candidate campaign. The 22-year-old threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions this season, completely turning the Texans’ fortunes around after their 3-13 record last year. His latest starring display came in that Colts clash, in which he threw for 264 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in a 23-19 win that clinched both a playoff berth and the division title.

However, a strong end to the regular season came at a cost for Houston. Star pass rusher Will Anderson only played 43 snaps in the final two games after missing several weeks with a high ankle sprain and without him, veteran QB Joe Flacco may have more room to maneuver.

Flacco’s end to 2023 highlights a similarly remarkable story for the Browns, who lost Deshaun Watson, cycled backup QBs, and landed on a 38-year-old vet. Flacco has gone 4-1 in his five starts since being brought out of retirement in November to lead the Browns to the playoffs, amassing 1,616 passing yards and 13 touchdowns.

Sure, Cleveland lost 31-14 to the Bengals last week, but they rested multiple starters. Don’t let that result fool you into thinking they’re not riding a wave into this Wild Card clash, after they ran up four straight wins before that shorthanded loss.

The Browns have already won at NRG Stadium in Houston this year, the lone loss in the Texans’ last four games, but their 36-22 win on Christmas Eve came in a game that Stroud missed due to injury. This will be a different kettle of fish altogether.

There’s a 17-year age gap between the two QBs here. But each has the capacity to lead their team to victory.

Kickoff in this one is at 3:30 p.m. CT. The impressive 11-win Browns are two-point road favorites on the road.

NFL Wild Card Browns vs. Texans best bet: Browns -2 (-120 or better)

And they‘re faves for a reason. Flacco has been superb and comes in with an extra week’s rest and prep time, as well as a free-firing Amari Cooper and great alternative options in the likes of David Njoku. The Texans’ pass defense is bottom 10 this season and has allowed opponents to score between 24 and 37 points in five of their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, Defensive Player of the Year candidate Myles Garrett and the Browns’ defense deserve huge plaudits for Cleveland’s success in the season’s home stretch, amassing 11 takeaways in their final four wins and holding opponents to under 284 total yards per game on average during that run. The Browns are also 5-1-1 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season. It should all add up to the Browns against the spread.

NFL Wild Card Browns vs. Texans best bet: Over 44.5 total points (-110)

This game has one of the lowest totals for Wild Card Weekend, presumably based heavily on the Browns No. 1-ranked pass defense and the Texans No. 6-ranked run defense.

But both Flacco and Stroud have the talents and the arsenal to unlock stiff defenses. The Browns have averaged 31 points per game with Flacco and their past five road games have all gone over the total mark, while on home turf the Texans are scoring 24.6 points per game but shipping over 20 too. Plus, with these games being played indoors, wind and inclement weather won’t be a factor in disrupting or complicating plays.

NFL Wild Card Browns vs. Texans player prop: Stroud under 21.5 passing completions (-105 at Caesars)

Against Cleveland, Stroud will face one of the league’s top passing defenses and one he is yet to play against and have a chance to figure out.

Cleveland’s success has been built on an imperious rearguard that leads the league in total yards allowed per game (270.2), passing yards allowed per game (164.7), and yards per passing attempt (5.9) this year. It also ranks top for completion percentage (57.4%).

If the Texans don’t want Stroud to wilt, they’ll need star running back Devin Singletary to share the load as the Browns’ nasty defense will look to come after the QB at every chance. There’s no Tank Dell for Houston and Nico Collins is arguably Stroud’s only dependable pass-catcher. Stroud, who averages 21.3 completions per game, will have a tough time profiting against this defense and it’ll tell on Saturday.

NFL Wild Card Browns vs. Texans best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

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