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The 2023-24 college football season comes down to Michigan vs. Washington in the National Championship Monday night at NRG Stadium in Houston.

Michigan vs. Washington odds preview

Despite playing in a third-straight CFP semifinal, the Wolverines didn’t seem focused in the early stages of the Alabama game.

On the opening play, J.J. McCarthy threw a near interception that was overturned by replay review. Then, when the Crimson Tide went three-and-out and punted on its first drive, Michigan muffed the kick, later resulting in a touchdown for Alabama.

The Wolverines went on to mishandle the snap on an extra point try, miss a field goal, and mishandle another punt that almost cost Big Blue the game. Instead, Michigan overcame each blunder to notch an overtime win and advance to the National Championship.

There’s no telling if the Wolverines have more boneheaded plays in store on Monday night, but if they can eliminate the costly mistakes, it will make life much easier for Michigan.

Meanwhile, Washington head coach Kalen DeBoer has a roster filled with players who have never competed in the CFP, yet the Huskies handled the moment like veterans. Michael Penix Jr. and Co. found the end zone on two of its first three drives, and Washington’s defense forced punts on three of Texas’ opening four possessions.

Penix had one of the most outstanding College Football Playoff performances we’ve seen. The Indiana transfer recorded 430 yards and two touchdowns, connecting on 7/11 passes that traveled 15+ yards downfield.

Penix’s deep-pass accuracy has been on point since Week 1. The Heisman runner-up’s 50 pass plays of 20+ air yards lead the nation by a wide margin, and he averages 5.2 explosive plays per game.

Now, he’s tasked with finding success through the air against the second-best pass defense in FBS.

Michigan vs. Washington best bets: Washington +4.5 (-110 or better)

Michigan and Washington’s offensive styles couldn’t be more different. The Wolverines establish the run to set up the pass, while the Huskies rely on its aerial attack to get the defense on its toes before handing it off to Dillon Johnson.

Here’s the million-dollar question: which team will better implement their clashing style of play?

Big Blue has a massive advantage because Washington is statistically the worst passing defense Michigan has faced this season. However, the safer option for the Wolverines is to continue pounding the rock with Blake Corum and trust the defense will get enough stops to come out on top.

But if Penix has another performance like fans were treated to in the semifinals, Washington will hang with Michigan and possibly win outright. Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk’s best games have come on the biggest stages, and the lights don’t get brighter than the National Championship.

Michigan vs. Washington best bets: Roman Wilson over 47.5 receiving yards (-115 or better)

Roman Wilson hadn’t gotten much work in previous weeks because Michigan’s run game had been so potent that there was minimal need to air it out. But that changed against Alabama when Wilson caught four passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, just his second 70+ yard outing in the last four matchups.

With Washington likely to commit heavily to stopping the Wolverine’s physical rushing attack, Wilson will undoubtedly get targets from McCarthy.

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