CFP National Championship passing prop odds: Betting tips for Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy

CFP National Championship passing prop odds: Betting tips for Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy

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Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy are two of the best quarterbacks in the nation, yet they play entirely differently.

The Huskies have the best passing offense in FBS, while the Wolverines lean on its rushing attack to set up playmaking opportunities for McCarthy.

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Michigan vs. Washington passing prop predictions: Best bets for Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Alex Orji

Michael Penix Jr. 300+ passing yards (+105 or better)

In his first taste of College Football Playoff action, Penix put on a show in Washington’s 37-31 victory over Texas. Penix’s career day included a 76% completion rate for 430 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, connecting on seven of 11 passes that traveled 15+ yards.

The Heisman runner-up was also impactful on the ground, rushing three times for 31 yards. This element of his game was rarely used this season, likely to avoid injury.

But with the National Championship on the line, Penix could once again use his legs if the opportunity presents itself. Doing so could open more passing lanes if Michigan defenders are forced to play closer to the line of scrimmage to stop Penix from scampering for chunk yards.

The Wolverines sacked Jalen Milroe six times and surrendered an anemic 116 passing yards. Michigan’s pass rush was in Milroe’s face for much of the game, and Alabama’s offensive line was no match for the Wolverines.

Keeping Milroe protected was an issue for the Crimson Tide throughout the season. Jalen’s 44 sacks were the most of any SEC QB.

Washington won the Joe Moore Award for the top offensive line in college football, and Penix was sacked only 10 times. Penix also deserves praise for the low sack total thanks to his ability to maneuver in the pocket and buy extra time to hit Washington’s pass catchers.

With more time to throw, Penix should be able to find the fantastic WR duo of Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.

J.J. McCarthy under 196.5 passing yards (-115 or better)

Michigan’s offensive line started taking control in the second half of the Rose Bowl, specifically in overtime when Blake Corum ran for 25 yards and a touchdown in only two plays. But for much of the game, the Wolverines weren’t getting its typical push at the line of scrimmage.

With the rushing attack seeing only moderate success, McCarthy got an expanded workload and surpassed 200 yards for the first time since early November. The Huskies have struggled against the run this season, allowing 134 yards per game.

Texas found success on the ground vs. Washington, tallying 180 yards and three touchdowns. With Michigan bound to pound the rock against Washington, expect McCarthy to play a diminished role in the National Championship.

Alex Orji anytime touchdown scorer (+1000 or better)

Alex Orji is McCarthy’s backup, though, in his five games played, the sophomore attempted no passes. Orji is insanely athletic and at 6-foot-3, 236 pounds, he can juke a defender out of his shoes or plow through them.

The Texas native ran the ball 13 times for 71 yards, and his only touchdown came in garbage time of Michigan’s 49-0 demolishing of Michigan State. Unless the Wolverines go up big and sub McCarthy out of the game, it’s unlikely Orji will get any snaps near the red zone.

With the National Championship on the line, it’s hard to imagine Jim Harbaugh turning to Orji during critical moments of the game when the Wolverines get close to the end zone.

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