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There aren’t many games by this stage of the NFL season that don’t have big playoff implications. This one certainly does as the 8-6 Houston Texans battle the 9-5 Cleveland Browns in a massive clash on Christmas Eve Sunday. Cleveland could virtually seal a postseason spot with a win, while a Houston W could blow the AFC wildcard race wide open.

Here, we preview the game and offer some best game bets and prop picks.

NFL Week 16 Browns vs. Texans odds preview

Last week, the Texans got a big dose of euphoria as they stormed back from 13-0 down to beat the divisional rival Tennessee Titans 19-16 without star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, top receiver Nico Collins, right tackle George Fant, and other starting players.

Making his first start since Week 17 of the 2021 season, Case Keenum threw for 229 yards on 23-of-36 passing (63.9%) with one touchdown and one interception, while Devin Singletary had 26 carries for 121 yards (4.7 yards per carry) and added four receptions for 49 yards.

The Texans are now tied with both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South with a 9-6 record, although Houston does not hold the edge in either tiebreaker. Even though they won without him, Stroud’s continued absence would be a huge blow if reports this week that he will miss Sunday’s game prove correct.

Meanwhile, the Browns’ ferocious defense and a touchdown each from Noah Brown and Amari Cooper led them to a nailbiting 20-17 win over the Chicago Bears.

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, the Browns’ fourth starting QB this year, had three interceptions to go along with a pair of TDs but Cleveland’s elite defense always gives them a fighting shot of grabbing a win, and so it proved again.

That victory keeps Cleveland in the AFC’s first wildcard position. They will be intent on staying there.

Kickoff at NRG Stadium in Houston is at noon CT. The Texans opened as 2.5-point home favorites but those odds flipped on their head with the news of Stroud’s likely absence.

NFL Week 16 Browns vs. Texans best bet: Texans +2.5 (-110 or better)

Sure, the main reason that the Texans were the opening-odds favorites here was Stroud, who was having one of the best rookie QB seasons in recent memory before he entered concussion protocol ahead of Week 15. But, while it’s understandable that the odds have swung in the favor of the Browns, who have a better overall record than the Texans, there’s enough reason to take Houston on the spread here.

Firstly, Sunday’s hosts are unbeaten ATS at home (2-0) and 6-1 ATS overall as 2.5-point underdogs or greater this year. Last week, they swatted away the suggestion that they would be hamstrung without Stroud by winning at the first time of asking with Keenum at QB. What’s more, the Browns’ road record is 2-4 compared to 7-1 at home, while the Texans are 5-2 in Houston. In a battle of two backup QBs, Houston has what it takes to at least keep this to within a field goal as Flacco’s three interceptions against the Bears showed signs of wear and tear in the vet’s game.

NFL Week 16 Browns vs. Texans best bet: Under 40 total points (-110)

For all the talk about Stroud’s importance and the Browns’ revolving door at QB, both Keenum and Flacco are adept backups and there’s the potential for points on the board. But we’re still backing the under here.

The Texans and Browns are each averaging 22 points per game but that’s with Stroud in the saddle for Houston and an array of rotating QBs for the Browns. Over the past five home games, the Texans’ underrated defense has held opponents to under 20 points four times, and five of their last six on home turf have gone under the total. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Browns road games this year but has hit the under in six of their last seven trips to Houston.

NFL Week 16 Browns vs. Texans best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

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