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What does Christmas Eve mean to you? For the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it means an intra-state rivalry clash with huge playoff implications. The 8-6 Jags travel south to Tampa Bay on a three-game losing skid that has seen their AFC South lead evaporate entirely. The hosting Bucs have surged from 4-7 to 7-7 and are now tied for the NFC South lead.

The context and the stakes make this a hugely watchable clash, and we’ve highlighted some best betting picks and props for the game.

NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Buccaneers odds preview

These teams come into this game in diametrically opposite form. Jacksonville may be sliding but they still lead the AFC South by the skin of their teeth despite losing 23-7 to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night while allowing 251 rushing yards, 204 of which came in the second half.

If that wasn’t bad enough, quarterback Trevor Lawrence exited with an injury after throwing for 264 yards and going 25-for-43 (58.1%) with one touchdown and no interceptions and adding four carries for 41 yards. Lawrence began the week in the concussion protocol and if he cannot start on Christmas Eve, veteran CJ Beathard will step in.

Meanwhile, the Bucs return home for the first time since the start of the month after their stunning 34-20 win over the Green Bay Packers, which was their third W on the spin. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was superb, racking up 381 yards on 22-of-28 passing (78.6%) with four touchdowns and no interceptions for a perfect passer rating.

Rachaad White carried the ball 21 times for 89 yards (4.2 yards per carry) and added two receptions for 50 yards and one touchdown, while Chris Godwin had 155 yards on 10 catches. The fact that this game is a matchup of two star runners in White and Etienne only adds to its allure. Etienne carried the ball 10 times for 31 yards (3.1 yards per attempt) for the Jaguars against the Ravens, with four catches for 28 yards.

Both teams are tied for the lead in their respective divisions but either or both of them may be second by the time they kick off. That illustrates just how vital this game is. It’s a must-win, a cannot-lose.

Kickoff at Raymond James Stadium is at 3:05 p.m. CT. The Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites. The sportsbooks have it as too close to call in the opening odds, with the Jaguars at -1 with some and the Bucs at -1 with others.

NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Buccaneers best bet: Bucs moneyline (-118 or better)

First up, with a one-point spread at most sportsbooks, you might as well take your pick on the moneyline. And there’s enough here to back the Bucs. The Jaguars have not only lost three in a row but failed to cover in each of those and an already mixed offense will be further hamstrung if Lawrence misses out, as looks likely.

Tampa Bay won back-to-back road games coming into this one and are riding what just might have been the best game of Baker Mayfield’s Bucs career. If there’s one thing this Bucs team does well, its impress against the spread, having gone 9-5 ATS this year. They’ve covered in six of their last eight games, including the last two in a row.

FanDuel had the best price on the Bucs moneyline at the time of writing, at -108.

NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Buccaneers player prop: Baker Mayfield over 235.5 passing yards (-115 or better) or over 246.5 passing & rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Mayfield hit dizzying heights last week, but he’s putting up consistently good numbers over the course of the season. He has 3,315 passing yards through 14 games this year, averaging 236.8 per game with a 63.5% completion percentage and 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions.

Against the Jags’ loose pass defense (29th in the league at 256.6 yards conceded per game), Mayfield has plenty of great targets to aim for. Chris Goodwin was his favorite target last week with 10 catches for 155 yards, while the likes of top-class receivers Mike Evans and Rachaad White and fellow catchers Ko Kieft and David Moore all grabbed TD passes.

Meanwhile, Mayfield has also seen some joy on the ground, rushing for 152 yards (second on the Buccaneers) at an average of 10.9 per game and adding one TD on the ground. He could have fun here.

NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Buccaneers player prop: Calvin Ridley over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 or better)

On the flip side, Jacksonville also has the all-around weaponry to do some damage here. Lawrence or no Lawrence, the Jags have something going for them on Sunday: the Bucs are even worse than they are defending the pass. Tampa Bay ranks second-worst in the NFL with an average of 263.9 passing yards allowed per game. Given that Jacksonville relies heavily on its ninth-ranked passing game to get down the field, this bodes well for the visitors putting points on the board.

Adding to the likes of Travis Etienne as a two-way threat on the ground and Evan Engram putting up some impressive numbers, Calvin Ridley looks primed to be a main threat against a porous pass rearguard; he has 781 receiving yards from 60 catches this year, averaging 4.3 receptions per game, and has scored five touchdowns through the air.

NFL Week 16 Jaguars vs. Buccaneers best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus for Christmas, best NFL promotions

Taking advantage of one of our sportsbook welcome promos to place your bet on the game couldn’t be easier. All you need to do is follow this handy guide:

• Click one of our promo code links and sign up using our code where applicable.
• Make a first deposit of the qualifying amount through an approved method.
• Place a qualifying first bet on the market of your choice.

Once you’ve signed up and claimed your welcome bonus at your sportsbook(s) of choice, all the top sportsbooks also offer a range of ongoing bonuses, promotions, and perks for members, such as:

• Odds boosts: Receive enhanced odds on select markets.
• Referral bonus: Collect a bonus for each friend who opens a new account and makes a deposit through your exclusive referral link.

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