Abortion politics could come up during the fourth GOP presidential primary debate tonight at the University of Alabama.

Foreign policy issues surrounding Israel and Ukraine most certainly will be brought up. Stricter immigration and border policies that animate Republican voters are also likely fair game.

But what about more localized questions? Could the candidates be asked about a Biden administration decision to keep Space Command’s headquarters in Colorado, and not move it Huntsville?

And what do the four candidates think about U.S. Senator Tommy Tuberville’s persistent hold on military promotions out of protest over the Pentagon’s abortion policy? Tuberville announced Tuesday he was releasing his months-long hold on promoting military officers at the 3-star level and below, but would keep the hold in place for roughly 10 nominations for 4-star generals and officers.

Few hints have been given in the weeks leading up to Alabama’s first-ever presidential debate. But political experts have some thoughts ahead of a debate that will be broadcast live from 7-9 p.m. on NewsNation and will take place inside the 1,100-seat Frank Moody Music Hall. It will also broadcast in the Central time zone on the company’s broadcast television network, The CW.

Abortion policy

NewsNation anchor Elizabeth Vargas, one of the three debate moderators, told AL.com that abortion policy is an issue that could come up during tonight’s debate.

There is little doubt that the issue is one Republicans are struggling to address following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade that erased the constitutional right to abortion. Since then, 21 states – including Alabama – either ban abortion or restrict the procedure earlier in the pregnancy than the standard set in Roe v. Wade.

The issue has been difficult for Republicans at the polls. Ballot initiatives in states that typically vote Republican have typically backed a woman’s right to choose. The more recent example occurred in Ohio, where close to 57% of the votes backed a state constitutional amendment that gives women the ability to make their own reproductive decisions.

Alabama does not have citizen initiatives that can be brought forward through petitioning voters without the support of the Legislature. The most recent time voters weighed in on abortion was in 2018, when 59% of voters backed a legislative amendment to the state Constitution outlawing abortions.

A NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll released last week shows the difficulty of the issue among Republicans – nearly 30% of Republicans screened believe the party is doing too much to restrict abortion, compared to only 9% who believe the party is doing too little.

Other issues

Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, said he anticipates questions on the following issues:

• Foreign policy issues surrounding Israel and Ukraine
• Stricter immigration and border control measures
• Impeachment inquiries into President Joe Biden

NewsNation’s poll shows that focusing on the border is strong, with a 52% majority of Republicans signaling that the border should be the GOP’s top priority if Republicans win the presidency and both chambers of Congress in 2024.

Biden remains popular with this own party, with 80% of Democrats approving of his job performance, according to the NewsNation poll. Conversely, 90% of Republicans disapprove.

The group Death Penalty Action is urging the moderators to ask at least one question related to the death penalty and related criminal justice matters.

Youth issues

The setting at the University of Alabama marks the first time a primary debate is being held on a college campus this year. But whether that sparks questions about pertinent to youth voters remains to be seen.

Kall noted that during the first presidential primary debate in Milwaukee in August, a student from Catholic University asked a question about climate change.

“That could again be a possibility,” he said.

Other issues: Student loan forgiveness and federal debt, and spending which are “two major topics associated with younger voters and their futures.”

Local issues

Kall said that there could be some localized topics that come up for debate. Tuberville’s military holds are possible, but so could be a question to the candidates about the future of Space Command.

Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado was named as the permanent headquarters for the U.S. Space Command earlier this year, but Alabama lawmakers have fought back on a decision they have blasted as political.

Former President Donald Trump, before he left office in 2021, vowed to have the U.S. military’s Space Command located to Huntsville’s Redstone Arsenal.

GOP lawmakers claim that opposition over Alabama’s strict abortion law was a factor behind a decision made by the Biden administration.

Another potential Alabama-based issues to keep a watch on, Kall said, include the future production and manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries.

College football

Though the issue seems ripe for asking. Don’t expect it to come up.

Megyn Kelly, one of the three moderators, has been vocal in her criticism about some of questions pitched by moderators in previous debates. For instance, she chastised the Fox News debate in Milwaukee for including a question about UFOs. She also said the moderators during the NBC debate last month in Miami seemed ill-prepared.

“I know that DeSantis, Rick Scott, Jared Moskowitz, Matt Gaetz, Byron Donalds, etc., are all trying to make political hay out of the issue,” Kall said, referring the Florida congressmen who have blasted the NCAA and the College Football Playoff committee in recent days over a decision to leave undefeated Florida State out of the College Football Playoff.

“Trump even blamed the Florida State snub on DeSantis via his social media accounts,” Kall said. “DeSantis and Clemson graduate Haley would probably enjoy the question, but a rabid University of Alabama audience would have no interest in hearing from presidential candidates that Florida State was more deserving. Politicians generally kowtow to the partisan home crowd. There will be no constituency that wants to hear further debate about this issue they feel was firmly settled on the field and by the committee.”

DeSantis announced on Tuesday that his 2024-2025 state budget request would include a $1 million set aside to support litigation based on the decision to exclude FSU from the playoff.

Monitoring the candidates

Mark Mellman, who served as a pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, wrote an Op-Ed last month that the previous debates are not improving the horse race polling for the candidates trailing former President Donald Trump.

According to a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll last month, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was the winner of the third presidential primary debate with 34% selecting her as the best performer, and only 5% identifying her as the worst. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished second, with 23% saying he was the best and 6% saying he was the worst.

Haley, as Mellman pointed out, only saw a 1.5% bump in polling.

Trump currently maintains a 46-percentage point advantage over DeSantis and a 48.7 percentage point lead over Haley, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker.

Still, observers believe the debate will come down to Haley and DeSantis. The winner will have momentum ahead of the Jan. 15 Iowa Caucuses and the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary.

Haley got some pre-debate momentum after an announcement last month that the political network financed largely by the billionaire Charles Koch is endorsing her candidacy.

Some political observers say Haley will be ready to defend herself on the debate stage.

“Haley is well suited for this kind of stage,” said Daniel Bennett, associate professor of political sciences at John Brown University, a Christian college in Northwest Arkansas. “She appears unflappable in the face of criticism from candidates like Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramswamy and seems prepared to consolidate the small but steady share of Republican voters who won’t vote for Biden but have real problems with Trump.”

Matt Dallek, professor of political management at George Washington University, also agrees that Haley has the best shot of consolidating the Republican supporters looking for a Trump alternative.

“The debates have been her friend and this is another chance for her to really solidify her standing as one of the two alternatives,” Dallek said.

Dallek and Bennett say that DeSantis has struggled in how to criticize Trump while affirming the Trump style of politics.

Kall, the professor at Michigan, calls tonight a possible “do or die proposition for DeSantis.” He noted that DeSantis got “a great warm-up debate” when he faced Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom during a debate Thursday on Fox News.

“He entered the race with so much hype and promise following a successful midterm election,” he said. “Haley has benefited the most to date from the previous debates and has stolen a lot of DeSantis’ limelight and momentum. He’s in danger of losing the battle to see who will emerge as the most viable alternative to Trump in case something unexpected occurs before the Republican nominating convention in July.”

But does that even matter?

Said Bennett, “This is all probably a moot point anyway with Trump’s hold on the party seemingly growing by the week. But I was going to put money on any non-Trump candidate emerging as the nominee, it would be Haley.”

DeSantis (11%) and Haley (10%) are almost locked in a tie among Republican voters asked in the NewsNation poll about their first choice for president. Trump is easily ahead with 60% of support.

Asked who their second choice is for president, 36% say DeSantis while Haley is at 14%. Ramaswamy scores at 15%.

DeSantis and Haley are likely to go at it. The DeSantis campaign is blasting Haley for accepting donations from “liberal Democrat billionaires,” based on recent New York Times reporting.

Ramaswamy and Christie

Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who is polling in third place, and Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, will also be on stage. Christie has been Trump’s fiercest critic during the debates, while Ramaswamy has gain debate attention for going after the candidates on stage.

Haley and Ramaswamy spared at the last debate when, during a discussion over TikTok, Ramaswamy brought up Haley’s daughter. Haley shot back, calling Ramswamy “scum.”

“Clearly, there is a lot of bad blood between Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy,” said Dallek, who calls Ramaswamy more of a “sideshow” who has likely peaked in polling.

Kall said that Christie, who badly trails in polling, and the other three candidates will likely stay clear of criticizing Trump.

“Chris Christie attempted to make the argument that Trump was disqualified from being commander-in-chief during the Milwaukee debate, but the raucous crowd quickly made it clear they had no interest in relitigating this issue,” he said.

Ramaswamy versus the moderators?

Dallek said it will be difficult for Ramaswamy to “go off” on the moderators during the NewsNation debate. Two of the three moderators are known conservatives – former Fox News and NBC anchor Megyn Kelly, and Eliana Johnson, editor-in-chief of the right-leaning Washington Free Beacon.

“It was easy for Ramaswamy to go off on the NBC commentators, but it might be harder (in Alabama),” he said. “The moderators are more in line with conservative views.”

Kelly’s debate questioning generated headlines in 2015 when she asked then-candidate Trump to explain his comments about women.

“You’ve called women you don’t like ‘fat pigs,’ ‘dogs,’ ‘slobs,’ and ‘disgusting animals.’ Does that sound to you like the temperament of a man we should elect as president?”

The question sparked a years-long feud between Trump and Kelly.

“It would be more interesting if Trump was there,” Dallek said.

Trump’s no-show

It appears the ex-president will not be in Alabama today. He will be in Florida for a fundraiser.

Kelly, though, has made a last minute pledge to reunite with Trump in the debate stage.

A boost for Alabama?

The debate is the first-ever for the state. It’s being held inside an ornate concert hall in the middle of the University of Alabama.

The event will generate rare national attention to the state for a modern political gathering.

“I’m not sure there’s a ton of historical significance to Alabama hosting the debate, other than it being the first time its happened,” said Bennett. “This isn’t a case of the RNC seeking to appeal to new sorts of Republican voters.”

Phillip Rawls, a former longtime political journalist in Alabama with The Associated Press, said he doesn’t believe the debate will amount to much for Alabama “unless something embarrassing or tragic happens.”

“ESPN could program a corn hole tournament against the Tuscaloosa debate and get strong ratings,” Rawls said.

Angi Horn, a longtime Republican Party strategist based in Montgomery, disagrees and believes the state is missing out on an opportunity to better promote itself while the national cameras are in Tuscaloosa.

“This is an opportunity for us, as a state, to break the Saturday Night Live stereotype of what Alabama is and showcase our state at this beautiful building at an institution of higher learning,” Horn said.

She said the debate setting offers the state to change perceptions.

“There is no secret that there is a stereotype of Alabama that we are uneducated, and we don’t have things,” Horn said. “People all the country, if not the world, will see images (the next day in media coverage) of an incredible building at an incredible campus in Alabama.”

She added, “It’s like when people find out we have beaches, or that we are home to NASA. It’s an understanding that Alabama is not what they think it is.”