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Two 6-5 teams meet on Sunday in a battle with big repercussions for the AFC wildcard race. The Houston Texans fell out of the wildcard places with a last-minute defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, while the Denver Broncos have surged into the playoff picture with five straight wins.

Here, we outline some best bets and picks to consider, as well as how best to bet on the game.

NFL Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans odds preview

The Broncos have been one of the big surprises of 2023. They were a horrid 1-5 in mid-Otober; now, they have the longest active winning streak in the NFL after beating an injury-hit Cleveland Browns in Week 12 to take them to 6-5. Russell Wilson’s renaissance continues and Sean Payton has this Denver team flying. They’ve beaten the Chiefs and the Bills across that 5-0 stretch.

What it all means is that they have a serious and unexpected opportunity to put themselves firmly in command in the AFC wildcard race with a win here.

This week’s matchup with a young Texans team with the year’s star rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is mouthwatering, particularly with so much on the line.

Houston suffered an agonizing 24-21 defeat against the Jaguars that not only brought a three-game winning streak to an end but saw them slip out of the wildcard spot and miss a chance to get a hand on first place in the AFC South. But they’re still firmly in the hunt and with Stroud, they are never out of a game.

Not many early observers this year would have expected these two teams to be firmly in the mix for a playoff spot come December. But here were are.

Kickoff at NRG Stadium in Houston is at noon CT live on CBS. The Texans are 3.5-point favorites at home at the time of writing.

NFL Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans best bet: Broncos +3.5 (-118 or better)

No team in football will be more confident right now than the streaking Broncos. This one is a tough matchup for them but on balance it looks pretty evenly matched, which gives value to taking the Broncos on the road.

The Texans haven’t had a lot of success covering spreads as a favorite this season, with their few wins from that position coming by a point or two. On each of their two previous occasions at least 3.5-point favorites, as they are here, they have failed to cover. Plus, for all of Stroud’s explosive play and hugely impressive numbers, the rookie is 0-4 ATS in his career as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Broncos have found both their fuel, scoring 20+ points in the last four games, and their resilience, conceding just 16 points per game along their five-game win stretch, tied for second-best in the NFL in that period.

NFL Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans best bet: Under 47.5 (-112 or better)

Both defenses here match up pretty well against the respective offenses. We’ve already talked about Denver’s much-improved secondary, which should stack up reasonably to Houston’s prolific offense, having forced 16 turnovers during its winning streak. On the offensive side, the Broncos tend to prefer to run the ball, doing so on 45% of their plays, seventh overall. The Texans are third in opponent rush yards per attempt (3.6).

Though the likes of Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence had nice good days recently against Houston, even an improved Wilson may struggle to replicate that success. Both teams have consistently hit the under lately, and this game will be a grinding battle between one of the best offenses in the league and arguably the league’s most-improved defense.

NFL Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans player prop: Stroud under 264.5 passing yards (-115)

Stroud’s credentials and numbers don’t need rehashing; the rookie could even have a shout for MVP, let alone Rookie of the Year, if Houston does make the postseason. Second in the NFL for passing yards with 3,266 at 296.9 per game, even in defeat last week he put up 304 passing yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. So there’s no avoiding the fact that betting on his under is always a risk.

But we haven’t seen Stroud come off a big divisional loss yet, and the Broncos are a top-10 team at pressuring the quarterback over their five-game win stretch. Stroud has generally protected the ball well but he’s an aggressive QB facing a surging defense. Even stars have down days, and the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love have all struggled against Denver’s defense in November.

NFL Week 13 Broncos vs. Texans best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

Taking advantage of one of our sportsbook welcome promos to place your bet on the game couldn’t be easier. All you need to do is follow this handy guide:

• Click one of our promo code links and sign up using our code where applicable.
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