Will Cam Newton make the Pro Football Hall of Fame?

Will Cam Newton make the Pro Football Hall of Fame?

Quarterback Cam Newton has expressed interest in returning to the NFL. But if the former Auburn All-American doesn’t play another game, he will become eligible for consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame with its Class of 2027.

Will Cam Newton make the Hall of Fame?

For the College Football Hall of Fame, that’s not even a question. Newton received a golden ticket for induction when he won the 2010 Heisman Trophy with Auburn’s undefeated BCS national-championship team. Every Heisman Trophy winner from 1935 through 2002 has been enshrined in the College Football Hall of Fame, and three players from beyond that block already are in – 2004 winner Matt Leinart, 2005 winner Reggie Bush and 2007 winner Tim Tebow.

But what about the Pro Football Hall of Fame?

During an appearance on “The Dan Patrick Show” last week, Newton was asked: “Are you a Hall of Famer?”

“Hell, yeah,” Newton answered.

Newton seemed to be concerned that his lack of an NFL championship would be something Hall of Fame electors would hold against him.

“I only played in one Super Bowl,” Newton said. “I lost.”

Newton reached Super Bowl 50 to cap the 2015 season, when he won the NFL Most Valuable Player Award. The Carolina Panthers had reached the NFL title contest by winning 17 of their 18 games, but the Denver Broncos won 24-10 in Super Bowl 50.

To explain his Hall of Fame credentials, Newton used a comparison from the NBA involving former Andalusia High School and Alabama standout Robert Horry and Allen Iverson.

During 16 seasons, Horry played for seven NBA championship teams but was never an all-star. Iverson was selected for the NBA All-Star Game 11 times and led the league in scoring four times at 6-feet tall. But he made it to the NBA Finals only once – in 2001, when the Los Angeles Lakers swept Iverson’s Philadelphia 76ers.

“What’s more important – impact or championships?” Newton said. “Would you rather have Robert Horry’s career or an Allen Iverson career? …

“My impact to this game is without a doubt seen.”

When Newton ran for 706 yards as a rookie in 2011, he became the fourth NFL quarterback with 700 rushing yards in a season – joining Bobby Douglass in 1972, Randall Cunningham in 1990 and Michael Vick in 2002, 2004 and 2006.

Of those three players, Cunningham had the only 3,000-yard passing season to go with the 700-plus rushing yards. With 4,051 passing yards, Newton broke the NFL rookie record.

In the 12 full seasons since Newton’s rookie campaign, nine quarterbacks have combined for 15 seasons with least 700 rushing yards, including Newton in 2012 and 2017. Among the others, Robert Griffin III is the only one not currently in the NFL. The other 700-yard QBs are the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields, Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, New York Giants’ Daniel Jones, Arizona Cardinals’ Kyler Murray and Denver Broncos’ Russell Wilson.

Allen surpassed 4,000 passing yards in both of his seasons with at least 700 rushing yards, and nine of the other seasons featured at least 3,100 passing yards for the quarterback.

When Newton ran for 14 touchdowns as a rookie, he set the NFL single-season record for a quarterback. Before that time, six NFL quarterbacks had run for at least 10 touchdowns in a season, starting with Johnny Lujack and his 10 TD runs for the Chicago Bears in 1950, with Steve Grogan’s 12 for the New England Patriots in 1976 establishing the record broken by Newton.

Since Newton’s rookie season, there have been six seasons in which a quarterback has run for at least 10 touchdowns, including by Newton in 2015 and 2020. Hurts has done so in three straight seasons, almost getting to the record with 13 in 2022 and up to 11 with six games left in the 2023 regular season.

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Twenty-nine players who fit the modern profile for the quarterback position have been enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

With 32,382 career passing yards, Newton has more than 16 of those players. With 194 career touchdown passes, Newton has more than 10 of those players (and the same number as Ken Stabler).

With 5,628 rushing yards, Newton has more than any of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks, and with 75 rushing touchdowns, he has more than any quarterback in NFL history. Steve Young is the leader in rushing yards among the Hall of Fame quarterbacks with 4,239, and Otto Graham has the most touchdown runs with 44.

Profootballreference.com’s Hall of Fame monitor ranks Newton 29th among the quarterbacks in NFL history, right between Hall of Famers Warren Moon and Joe Namath. The Hall of Fame monitor is a metric designed to estimate a player’s chances of reaching the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Seventeen of the players rated as more Hall of Fame-worthy than Newton already are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. That leaves 11 quarterbacks who could be lining up for votes with Newton.

Of those 11, Ken Anderson retired after the 1986 season and has moved from the modern-era ballot to become the responsibility of the Seniors Committee, and Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson are active players.

Eli Manning becomes eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame with the Class of 2025. Drew Brees and Philip Rivers will first be considered with the Class of 2026. Ben Roethlisberger’s first Hall of Fame opportunity comes with Newton in 2027. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan could be members of the Class of 2028.

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Will the lack of a championship on his resume keep Newton out of the Pro Football Hall of Fame? It didn’t for Moon, Dan Fouts, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino and Fran Tarkenton.

The length of Newton’s career might concern Hall of Fame voters more than his lack of a title, although seven of the current Hall of Fame quarterbacks played fewer regular-season games than Newton’s 148. Of the 11 quarterbacks ahead of Newton on the Hall of Fame monitor, all but one has played more regular-season games than Newton, with eight past the 200-game milestone.

Newton’s MVP Award is not the reserved seat in the Pro Football Hall of Fame that his Heisman Trophy is for the College Football Hall of Fame. Anderson won The Associated Press MVP Award for the 1981 season and is still awaiting enshrinement. Nine other quarterbacks who won the AP NFL MVP Award are eligible for induction but are not members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame – Earl Morrall, Roman Gabriel, John Brodie, Bert Jones, Brian Sipe, Joe Theisman, Boomer Esiason, Rich Gannon and Steve McNair.

But Newton is a member of a smaller MVP subset that has a 100 percent enshrinement rate so far. Ten players have won the AP NFL MVP Award and the AP NFL Rookie of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year or Defensive Rookie of the Year Award during their careers. Seven are Pro Football Hall of Fame members – Jim Brown, Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, Lawrence Taylor, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and Marshall Faulk.

The other three players with both an MVP and a Rookie of the Year award are not yet eligible for consideration for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, with Newton joining Ryan and Adrian Peterson.

Two former Auburn players are members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Center Frank Gatski was inducted with the Class of 1985, and outside linebacker Kevin Greene was inducted with the Class of 2016.

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Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter at @AMarkG1.