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It may only be Week 12, but Sunday at NRG Stadium could well end up deciding the AFC South. The 6-4 Houston Texans are a game behind the 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars as they host their divisional rivals in a massive game with far-reaching ramifications. We outline some best bets and picks for the game below.

NFL Week 12 Jaguars vs. Texans odds preview

Labelling this as a key battle in the race for AFC South supremacy seems fair enough. The hosting Texans will either end this week tied for the divisional lead and having clinched the tiebreaker against the Jaguars, or two games back and trailing in the tiebreaker. So Houston probably needs to win this to be in with a shout of ending an expectedly competitive season with a divisional title.

Houston comes into this titanic clash in better form, riding a three-game win streak after beating the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11. Even though this year’s best rookie quarterback and one of the best in the league period, C.J. Stroud, had an off-day by his high standards, his team rallied around him to secure a five-point victory.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville got the wheels back on the tracks after their savage defeat to the San Francisco 49ers by sweeping aside the Tennessee Titans 34-14. Trevor Lawrence stepped up big time

Houston has already beaten Jacksonville this year, springing a surprise with a 37-17 win in Week 3, a win here would cement their position as firmly in the playoff picture. But the Jags are better away from home than in Florida, a perfect 5-0 on the road in 2023, and are 6–1 since that defeat. They also have the fiery motivation of building a two-game lead over Houston with the season’s home stretch ahead and defending their divisional crown.

Kickoff in Houston is at noon CT live on CBS. The Texans have twice as many wins as the Jaguars in this series (28-14 all-time) but Jacksonville (-1.5) is the slim favorite. It should be great viewing.

NFL Week 12 Jaguars vs. Texans best bet: Over 47.5 points (-112 or better)

This game is tied for the highest over/under total of Week 12, and it’s for good reason. They each have offense that are high-powered more often than not, and both have defenses that are suspect against the pass.

The Texans still put up decent numbers even when, like last week, Stroud has a down game, while the Jags got Lawrence dancing again last time out. We think it’s more likely we get plenty of attacking chaos than it is that each team will find a way to lock down the other, so we’re backing the total to sneak into the over, even while the under reigns supreme league-wide this year.

NFL Week 12 Jaguars vs. Texans player prop: Stroud over 267.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Even when Stroud has a poor game, the Texans are finding ways to win right now. Whether or not that’s the outcome this week, the standout rookie is primed for a rebound game of the highest order.

Over the past three games alone, Stroud has thrown for 1,162 yards, the most ever for a rookie over a three-game span in NFL history. Now, he gets to face a Jaguars defense that struggles desperately to stop the pass. The Jags’ weak spot has been their pass defense, with their 254.4 average yards against ranking 29th. The Texans, meanwhile, rank second in the league for passing yards on the strength of Stroud’s arm and range.

All three of the Jaguars’ losses this season have come when their opponent threw at least 275 yards. It’s well within Stroud’s capabilities to fly past that number here. Most sportsbooks have Stroud’s mark at 271.5 but FanDuel has it set lower at 267.5.

NFL Week 12 Jaguars vs. Texans best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

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