Week 13 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Week 12 picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Week 13 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.
Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
6-0 CHALLENGE
Happy Thanksgiving, fellow sports donks, and congrats to former AL.com sports editor Josh Bean for going 6-0 for the second time this season. Josh says that Kliff Kingsbury will be the next coach at Texas A&M, and we tend to believe him based on Josh being a certified college football genius. We also had two other perfect entries last week, so hats off to Dave Judd and Mike Johnson for believing in New Mexico State. Dave says Urban Meyer will be coaching the Aggies next season and Mike went with the “Guy from UTSA” or Jeff Traylor. If Traylor is indeed hired, hopefully he’ll be introduced as the “Guy from UTSA.”
Our total number of winners of the 6-0 Challenge this season is up to 42.
This week’s quiz question is all about the future of the SEC. We’ll analyze the answers in next week’s newsletter, so sign up for the newsletter here.
Click the link here to make your picks for Week 13 of the 6-0 Challenge.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 3-3 straight up, 3-2 against the spread
Pro: 4-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread
Hero: 3-3 straight up, 2-3 against the spread
Notes: Hero nailed the UAB’s 10-point victory against Louisiana. He’s just showing off now. Congrats to the Pro for nailing Yale’s victory over Harvard.
THIS SEASON
Joe: 44-27 straight up, 27-42-2 against the spread
Pro: 47-25 straight up, 31-37-2 against the spread
Hero: 51-15 straight up, 39-30-2 against the spread
Notes: Hero has the season in the bag. Joe is eating cranberry sauce out of a can for Thanksgiving. No turkey or anything else. Just straight cranberry sauce out of a can. On to the picks!
No.8 Alabama (10-1, 7-0 SEC) at Auburn (6-5, 3-4 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.
TV: CBS
Series: Alabama leads 49-37-1.
Spread: Alabama by 14.5.
Trendy: Alabama has won the Iron Bowl three times in a row.
Joe says: This is the 10-year anniversary of Kick Six. You might have heard about it. Auburn’s steady improvement this season took a nosedive last week, but the way this season has gone in the SEC I’m fully expecting a great Iron Bowl. It’s going to be a wild one, but that’s usually the case when the game is in Auburn. Don’t be surprised if Auburn takes an early lead here. The key is going to come down to Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s ability to link together first downs. First-year Auburn coaches are 2-3 in Iron Bowls played in Auburn. Hugh Freeze has been looking forward to this one (maybe too much) and he was hired for ability to win big games against Nick Saban. Auburn gets it done and spoils Alabama’s bid for the College Football Playoff.
Joe’s pick: Auburn 34, Alabama 33
Pro says: You probably get four to five points added to the spread just because Auburn got upset last week. The series favors the host in one of the most intense rivalries in all of college football. Alabama may be on a roll of late but just a little over a month ago there was talk that this Bama team wasn’t anything special. Series host is 8-2-1 against the spread and the Tigers are 5-2 against the spread at home in their last seven games. To the wire!
Pro’s pick: Alabama 35, Auburn 28
Hero says: Auburn followed up their best performance of the season with their worst performance last week. Alabama is probably wondering if last week was part of some mind game that the Tigers are pulling on the 10th anniversary of the Kick Six in Jordan-Hare. My guess is that Coach Saban will not have any problem getting his Tide team up for the Iron Bowl. The Alabama offense brings a lot of momentum into the game and Auburn will have difficulty stopping the dual threat attack led by Jalen Milroe. Auburn’s best chance to keep the game close is to reestablish their run game that went missing last week. Tiger running back Jarquez Hunter should have some success running the football on the Bama defense but as long as the Tide does not turn the ball over or kill momentum with penalties, they should roll into the SEC championship game with a shot at making the college football playoff.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 27, Auburn 17
No.2 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) at No.3 Michigan (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten)
When: 9 a.m., Sat.
Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
TV: Fox
Series: Michigan leads 60-51-6.
Spread: Michigan by 3.5.
Joe says: The bizarre sign-stealing saga at Michigan sets the stage for the game of the year in college football. But at 9 a.m.? The weirdness continues. Ohio State is suddenly wearing the white hat, and everyone outside of Michigan is rooting for the Buckeyes. For me, that all plays into Michigan’s hands for this game. The Big Ten and NCAA have given Michigan all the bulletin-board material it needs to prove a point that it can win a big game without cheating. Ohio State might still be a playoff team with a loss in the Big House, but they’ll have to keep it close.
Joe’s pick: Michigan 22, Ohio State 18
Pro says: Even with a closer than anticipated 31-24 win by Michigan over Maryland last week the Wolverines have still outscored their opposition 294-76 the last seven games. Buckeyes WR Marvin Harrison might be the best player on the field, but Michigan clearly has the better offensive and defensive lines and home field advantage. Hail to the Victors!
Pro’s pick: Michigan 27, Ohio State 20
Hero says: The hate fest in Ann Arbor is must see TV this Saturday morning. The Buckeyes and Wolverines have again dominated the so-called Big Ten. Both teams win in a similar manner with stifling defenses and offenses that can control the time of possession with their running game or hit big plays in the passing game. So far, Michigan has not paid a price for their head coach being suspended in five games already this season. Game six of not having Jim Harbaugh on the sideline may be the difference in allowing Ohio State to get revenge for losing the last two games to Michigan.
Hero’s pick: Ohio State 24, Michigan 20
No.16 Oregon State (8-3, 5-3 Pac-12) at No.6 Oregon (10-1, 7-1 Pac-12)
When: 5:30 p.m., Fri..
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.
TV: Fox
Series: Oregon leads 67-49-10.
Spread: Oregon by 13.5.
Joe says: It says something about the strength of the Pac-12 this season that we’re featuring Oregon State two weeks in a row (and that OSU is still ranked so high after three losses). This is a tough turnaround for the Beavers after their battle against Washington last week. There’s so much on the line for the Ducks in this one and it’s all going to come down to how well they play under pressure. I’ll ride with the experience of former Auburn and Ducks quarterback Bo Nix. He has played in so many big games throughout his career at this point.
Joe’s pick: Oregon 42, Oregon State 21
Pro says: Last year a Bo Nix injury and coach Dan Lanning making poor in-game decisions cost them the game in Corvallis. Nix had six touchdown passes last week in the first half alone as the Ducks torched Sparky 49-13. Ducks could be the hottest team in college football the last month. Not bucking them now.
Pro’s pick: Oregon 45, Oregon State 24
Hero says: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix could have a real shot at winning the Heisman Trophy with a huge game this weekend and next weekend in the Pac-12 championship game. The Beavers would like nothing more than to knock off the Ducks and deny them a chance at the Pac-12 championship game and the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have the better team and are playing at home, but 13.5 points is a big spread in a rivalry game.
Hero’s pick: Oregon 35, Oregon State 24
Jacksonville State (8-3, 6-1) at New Mexico State (9-3, 6-1)
When: 1 p.m., Sat.
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, N.M.
TV: ESPN+
Series: First meeting.
Spread: NMSU by 1.5.
Joe says: This game got way more interesting really fast. I’m excited for Jacksonville State and its early success in Conference USA. Hiring coach Rich Rodriguez was such a major win for the Gamecocks. JSU is the kind of team that can make real noise at the FBS level. The fanbase is dedicated and there is plenty of generational tradition. JSU has flown under the radar this season compared to James Madison, but the long-term success favors the Cocks. All that said, New Mexico State has been one of the great Group of 5 success stories this season, as well, and I like the Aggies at home to end the season.
Joe’s pick: New Mexico State 38, Jacksonville State 25
Pro says: The Aggies caught Auburn in the ultimate sandwich game last week when the Tigers were coming off becoming bowl eligible and had Alabama on deck. While the game versus Jacksonville State looks big based on win-loss records and standings, Jacksonville State is ineligible to play for the championship. The unique run-heavy Jacksonville State attack could present real problems to the Aggies who could still be celebrating their first-ever win over an SEC opponent.
Pro’s pick: Jacksonville State 35, New Mexico State 20
Hero says: This is the ultimate trap game for the New Mexico State Aggies. After beating Auburn last week on the road, they travel to Liberty next week for the Conference USA championship game. Rich Rodriguez brings in his Gamecocks looking to finish off a great season at 9-3 and since they are not eligible for the postseason, this will be JSU’s bowl game. The Gamecocks will give the Aggies a better game than Auburn last week, but it will be a challenge to win on the road against this very well coached New Mexico State team.
Hero’s pick: New Mexico State 31, Troy 27
No.5 Florida State (11-0) at Florida (5-6)
When: 4 p.m., Sat.
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.
TV: ESPN
Series: Florida leads 37-27-2.
Spread: FSU by 6.5.
Joe says: The Gators can salvage their disappointing season by spoiling FSU’s undefeated record. Let’s be real, though. FSU is far ahead of the Gators (and Miami) at this point and the Noles are positioned for even bigger things in January backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker. This team has been playing great all season and I handicapped them only second in the country to Georgia before the injury to starting quarterback Jordan Travis. I don’t trust UF’s backup quarterback to have a clean game and the Noles’ balanced offense should pull away in the fourth quarter.
Joe’s pick: Florida State 39, Florida 27
Pro says: The Gators played one of their top three games of the year last week but still came up short at Missouri by two points. Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks but FSU has the better offensive and defensive lines and a defense that is head and shoulders above what the Gators will trot onto the field. Depth and coaching edge also for the Seminoles.
Pro’s pick: Florida State 28, Florida 20
Hero says: The Gators are trying to get bowl eligible while the Seminoles are trying to make the College Football Playoff. Both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks for this rivalry game. FSU has been finding ways to win all season while Florida has been finding ways to lose close games. Gators coach Billy Napier needs this win badly and I am tempted to call for the upset in Gainesville, but the Seminoles still have an outstanding team even without quarterback Jordan Travis.
Hero’s pick: FSU 28, Florida 24
No.24 Clemson (7-4) at South Carolina (5-6)
When: 4:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, S.C.
TV: SEC Network
Series: Clemson leads 72-43-4.
Spread: Clemson by 7.
Joe says: Give Clemson coach Dabo Swinney credit for salvaging this season after his infamous clapback at a radio caller before the Tigers’ game against Notre Dame. On second thought, maybe we should give all the credit to Tyler from Spartanburg. Ever since Dabo’s meltdown on his own weekly call-in show, Clemson has played with an edge like Dabo’s championship-caliber teams from a few years back. It took criticism from its own fanbase to motivate this team, but whatever works. This is a revenge game for the Tigers so they’ll pour it on in the fourth quarter.
Joe’s pick: Clemson 48, South Carolina 28
Pro says: Clemson seems to be finally putting it all together. I’m aware the Gamecocks need to win to get to a bowl but they really don’t have much of an edge except for a slight one at QB and home-field advantage. The Tigers are 10th and eight in total and passing defense, respectively. They should be able to clamp down on Gamecock QB Spencer Rattler.
Pro’s pick: Clemson 34, South Carolina 20
Hero says: Earlier this season, Clemson looked like they would be lucky to finish over .500, but thanks to that “smart***” kid” Tyler from Spartanburg, Dabo Swinney turned this season around. Tiger quarterback Cade Klubnik is playing with much more confidence now and he is facing a Gamecock secondary that has given up too many passing yards. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler could lead the Gamecocks to another upset in his last home game in Columbia, but Clemson has the much better defense in this game.
Hero’s pick: Clemson 28, South Carolina 23