Comparing Alabama’s resume to College Football Playoff contenders
If Alabama football is going to win the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2020, it’ll need some help in the remaining two weeks of the season.
The CFP selection committee released its latest rankings on Tuesday night, and like in the Associated Press and Coaches Polls, the Tide remained at No. 8. Here’s how the Tide ranks among the other CFP contenders.
Alabama’s resume
Record: 10-1, 7-0 SEC
Ranked wins: No. 12 Ole Miss, No. 14 LSU, No. 21 Tennessee
Losses: No. 7 Texas
Strength of schedule: 28
ESPN Football Power Index: 4
Ranked opponents remaining: No. 1 Georgia
Texas
10-1, 7-1 Big 12
Ranked wins: at No. 8 Alabama, No. 19 Kansas State
Losses: No. 13 Oklahoma
SOS: 9
FPI: 8
The biggest deterrent to Alabama’s path is the Longhorns. That Week 2 win is arguably the best victory in the country any team could have on its resume. And though there’s a healthy debate to be had about who would be favored in a rematch, the committee can only deal with the facts. Should Texas beat Texas Tech, it’ll clinch a spot in its conference title game and likely have another ranked opponent in either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State.
Oregon
10-1, 7-1 Pac-12
Ranked wins: None
Losses: at No. 4 Washington
SOS: 63
FPI: 5
Ranked opponents remaining: No. 16 Oregon State
Dan Lanning’s squad led by Bo Nix could play Washington in the Pac-12 title game with a win over the Beavers or an Arizona loss to three-win Arizona State. This would allow the Ducks to have a similar argument to Texas: “We beat every team on our schedule, including a top-10 program.”
Florida State
11-0, 8-0 ACC
Ranked wins: No. 14 LSU, No. 24 Clemson
SOS: 62
FPI: 9
Ranked opponents remaining: No. 10 Louisville
The first shakeup in the top eight comes with the Huskies jumping FSU at No. 4 days after Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury. Tate Rodemaker will step in as the Seminoles still are likely a pair of wins away from an undefeated season under Mike Norvell. Beating the Cardinals would also bookend the season with marquee victories.
Washington
11-0, 8-0 Pac-12
Ranked wins: at No. 15 Arizona, No. 6 Oregon, at No. 16 Oregon State
SOS: 35
FPI: 13
The Huskies haven’t won in the prettiest ways, but quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and co. have stayed perfect. They’ll get a chance to lock their newly earned playoff spot with a rivalry matchup against Washington State and then either a ranked Arizona or Oregon in the Pac-12 championship. Washington is No. 1 in ESPN’s “strength of record” stat, a measure of how well you’ve done compared to your strength of schedule.
If the favorites prevail in the Pac-12 and Big-10 championships, one of Oregon-Washington and Michigan-Ohio State will comprise half of the four-team field. Alabama’s resume likely trumps that of a Travis-less FSU, but can the committee turn away an undefeated conference champion? An FSU loss either against Florida or the Cardinals likely goes a long way to help.
It’s fitting that the limits of a four-team structure are being tested in the final year of the system. Because of the Sept. 9 defeat to Texas, Alabama likely needs two spots to open up to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday assuming UA knocks off Georgia — becoming the first team to beat Kirby Smart since the 2021 Tide — and the Longhorns win out.
The Tide can’t afford to lose the Iron Bowl this weekend, but there are shades of the 2017 run appearing in that Alabama may sit on the outside of every CFP poll until the one that matters most.