Tropical Storm Vince could form soon; any US threat?

Tropical Storm Vince could form soon; any US threat?

There will likely be a new tropical storm in the Caribbean soon: Tropical Storm Vince.

It’s not a tropical storm just yet, though. The National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 on Thursday afternoon and said it would likely strengthen to Tropical Storm Vince on Friday.

The potential Vince is forecast to track to the northeast. That would put several Caribbean islands in its path but not the continental U.S.

Tropical storm watches were issued on Thursday for Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

As of 3 p.m. CST Thursday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 was located about 365 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and was tracking to the north-northeast at 9 mph.

The system had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It needs a defined center of circulation and winds of at least 39 mph to become a tropical storm. The next name on the 2023 Atlantic storm list — and the second from the last — is Vince.

The hurricane center’s official forecast track steers the storm to the northeast, which could take it across Jamaica, part of Cuba and into the Bahamas by Saturday. Then the storm could pick up speed and continue on a path northeast, tracking to the south of Bermuda by Sunday. If that forecast track holds then there will be no threat to the continental U.S. from the system.

The hurricane center’s forecast doesn’t show the storm strengthening into a hurricane.

Tropical storm wind and rain could make it to Jamaica by Friday, reach Cuba and Haiti Friday night and the Bahamas on Saturday.

The storm could bring 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized areas up to 16 inches to parts of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola through Monday.

Some storm surge will also be possible along the south coast of Cuba as well as the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.

The hurricane center is also tracking a non-tropical disturbance near Florida’s east coast, which has been bringing flooding rain to parts of the Sunshine State over the past few days. That disturbance isn’t expected to become a tropical system and is forecast to track to the northeast.

A non-tropical low near South Florida is not expected to become a tropical storm.NHC