Week 11 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Week 11 picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Week 11 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.
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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
6-0 CHALLENGE
Once again, readers showed Joe the ways of real college football experts. We had eight perfect entries of the 6-0 Challenge for Week 10 of the 2023 college football season.
The eight geniuses for Week 10 were A.J. Arico, Dennis Hopper, Richard Botts of Raleigh, N.C., The Kevinator of Kennesaw, Ga., Elaine Eggars of Hoover, Noah Coslov of New York, Dave Judd of Hoover and Chris Dorris of Hoover.
Dave Judd and Chris Dorris both emphasized in emails how much they love seeing the Hero take Joe to school most every week with his picks. Well, all we can say to that is this has certainly been the season of Dave and Chris’ dreams. Our total number of winners of the 6-0 Challenge this season is up to 30.
There are no wrong answers for this week’s quiz question, so enjoy going through memory lane for your favorite answer. We received some hilarious responses for last week’s quiz question about Jim Harbaugh’s pet dog, and we’ll put together a Top 10 list for this week’s newsletter. “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour” is emailed to inboxes at 4:20 p.m. every Thursday. Sign up for the newsletter here.
Click the link here to make your picks for Week 11 of the 6-0 Challenge.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 6-0 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Pro: 5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread
Hero: 6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the spread
Notes: The Pro isn’t out of the competition yet after a great week, but there is no possible way Joe can come anywhere close to catching the Hero. Joe’s picks record is about as painful to look at as Dallas Turner in an opposing backfield.
THIS SEASON
Joe: 38-21 straight up, 22-36-2 against the spread
Pro: 39-21 straight up, 26-32-2 against the spread
Hero: 47-13 straight up, 34-24-2 against the spread
Notes: Hero is 16-7-1 against the spread over the last four weeks. On to the picks!
No.3 Michigan (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) at No.11 Penn State (8-1, 5-1 Big Ten)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.
TV: Fox
Series: Michigan leads 16-10.
Spread: Michigan by 3.5
Trendy: Wolverines are 3-0 against the spread this season in away games.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Michigan has scored over 40 points in victory straight games against Big Ten opponents.
Joe says: Sign Stealer U has been on a roll these last couple years and now it’s easy to see why. Michigan was apparently cheating the entire time. We’ll see how Michigan plays on the road against a good team without knowing what plays are coming. Penn State has an excellent defense and should keep this one close.
Joe’s pick: Penn State 28, Michigan 27
Pro says: Going on the road as a top-three ranked team for Penn State turned into a nightmare at Ohio State as the Nittany Lions didn’t convert a third down conversion on each of their first 15 tries. Now the roles are reversed and Michigan hits the road with a top-three ranked squad to face a No.2-ranked defense in the country with revenge for a 41-17 beat down last year in Ann Arbor. The shoe is on the other foot. Revenge will taste really sweet on Saturday.
Pro’s pick: Penn State 24, Michigan 21
Hero says: This important Big Ten game is being overshadowed by the Michigan scouting- and sign-stealing scandal. On the field, the Wolverines have been dominant led by the No.1-ranked defense in college football. Penn State has also been dominant and is ranked No.2 in total defense. The key to this game will be which offense can create a few big plays. The Michigan offense, led by a proven big-game quarterback in JJ McCarthy, seems to have the advantage compared to the Penn State offense led by unproven Drew Allar, who struggled against Ohio State. Even though the game will be played in Happy Valley, I think Big Blue will pull together to hand the Nittany Lions their second loss.
Hero’s pick: Michigan 24, Penn State 17
No.18 Utah (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12) at No.5 Washington (9-0, 6-0 Pac-12)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle
TV: Fox
Series: Washington leads 13-2.
Spread: Washington by 9
Trendy: Washington was 0-4 against the spread in consecutive games before covering the points last week against USC.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Washington quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., is tied for the Pac-12 lead in passes intercepted with seven.
Joe says: I’ve been impressed with the mettle of Utah this season, but every time the Utes have been tested by a good team they’ve shown their weaknesses on offense. Washington had its hiccups with pressure last season, but this time around I can’t see the Huskies faltering against inferior competition. Huskies quarterback Michael Penix, Jr., leads the nation with 26 passing touchdowns. The ride continues in Seattle.
Joe’s pick: Washington 35, Utah 14
Pro says: The Huskies have the No.1 passing offense in the country but this is the time of year the pressure on undefeated teams goes way up. Two weeks ago Utah’s defense had trouble with Oregon’s offense getting plays off quickly, but then again almost everyone else does too. Washington doesn’t get offensive plays off as quickly and Utes wide receiver Devaughn Vele has caught fire with 14 receptions the last two games. Utes on a 19-10 against-the-spread run as a dog and an even better 15-7 ATS run as a road underdog. Utes keep it close enough to cover!
Pro’s pick: Washington 38, Utah 34
Hero says: Washington outscored USC last week 52-42 last week while the Utes bounced back to dominate Arizona State 55-3. Utah generated a lot of offense under the direction of quarterback Bryson Barnes. They will need that trend to continue this week against the high scoring Huskies led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr and an outstanding group of wide receivers including Rome Odunze. There is some concern that Washington may struggle coming off last week’s huge win facing a strong Utah defense, but I think the Huskies will handle business at home and stay undefeated.
Hero’s pick: Washington 35, Utah 24
No.13 Tennessee (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No.14 Missouri (7-2, 3-2 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo.
TV: CBS
Series: Tennessee leads 6-5.
Spread: Tennessee by 1.5
Trendy: Missouri has covered the spread three weeks in a row.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Missouri running back Cody Shrader leads the SEC in rushing with 102.11 yards per game.
Joe says: Missouri’s defense held up well against Georgia last week, but the Bulldogs’ depth has been the difference in the SEC East this season. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook struggled against Georgia and Tennessee’s defense isn’t far off. The question for me is whether or not Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III can put together another strong performance like he did last week against Kentucky. It’ll be close, but I’m with the home dog in a team of evenly matched teams.
Joe’s pick: Missouri 30, Tennessee 27
Pro says: The Vols have dominated the Tigers to the tune of 62-24 and 66-24 the last two seasons. I can’t remember a ranked team losing worse in back-to-back seasons. Great effort by Missouri in taking Georgia down to the wire. Now the question is can Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz get his team back up to face a team with schemes and talent that seem to be too much to handle? I doubt they can.
Pro’s pick: Tennessee 35, Missouri 31
Hero says: This appears to be a very evenly matched game that is the battle for second place in the SEC East. Mizzou missed an opportunity to end Georgia’s winning streak last Saturday, but they look like one of the best teams in the SEC. The Vols have continued to improve and earned a big SEC win on the road at Kentucky two weeks ago. Both teams feature strong defenses and effective running games. The key to winning this game may come down to which quarterback makes more good plays than bad. Missouri quarterback Brady Cook has the advantage of throwing to the best player on the field, Luther Burden III so that gives the Tigers a slight advantage at home in Columbia.
Hero’s pick: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27
No.9 Ole Miss (8-1, 5-1 SEC) at No.2 Georgia (9-0, 6-0 SEC)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.
TV: ESPN
Series: Georgia leads 32-12-1.
Spread: Georgia by 11.5
Trendy: Georgia has won 23 consecutive home games.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The Bulldogs can tie their all-time record of consecutive home victories (24) with a win against Ole Miss. The record dates back to 1983.
Joe says: The biggest game of the week in the SEC will be a test between two former assistants of Nick Saban, one offense (Lane Kiffin) and one defense (Kirby Smart). It’ll come down to Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart being able to manage the pressure in the second half. I’ve come around on Ole Miss since it’s collapse against Alabama. Look for Quinshon Judkins to have a solid game. I’m riding with Ole Miss to deliver the upset of the season in the SEC. Down goes Georgia.
Joe’s pick: Ole Miss 33, Georgia 31
Pro says: The Ole Miss offense needs to run to be successful against Top 10 defenses. They had trouble against Alabama with only 56 rushing yards and Georgia has the best run defense in the SEC. Lane Kiffin has a propensity to gamble on almost every four down once his team falls behind by double digits. He’s in it to win it and not cover the point spread. I’m not willing to back the “Lane Train.”
Pro’s pick: Georgia 34, Mississippi 17
Hero says: Both teams are coming off tough SEC road wins last week. The Bulldogs have not been as dominant this year, but they continue to win led by a strong defense and an effective passing game. The Ole Miss offense mixes the run and pass as good as any team in the league and Rebels coach Lane Kiffin will have some wrinkles that could generate big plays. This should be an entertaining game, but I don’t have confidence that a good Ole Miss defense can stop the Bulldogs offense enough to win the game on the road in Athens.
Hero’s pick: Georgia 37, Ole Miss 27
Auburn (5-4, 2-4 SEC) at Arkansas (3-6, 1-5 SEC)
When: 3 p.m., Sat.
Where: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark.
TV: SEC Network
Series: Auburn leads 19-12-1.
Spread: Arkansas by 3
Trendy: Arkansas has failed to cover the spread at home this season against FBS opponents (0-3).
Joe says: Arkansas is on the rebound after kicking former offensive coordinator Dan Enos to the curb. How does that guy keep getting jobs? Arkansas is a much better team than its record indicates. The Hogs have faced a tough schedule, losing close games to quality opponents Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and BYU. Auburn is gaining confidence, but I’m not buying the Tigers based on a win against Vanderbilt. Hard for me to pick against KJ Jefferson at home in this one.
Joe’s pick: Arkansas 42, Auburn 38
Pro says: Improvement for the Hogs offense last week with a new offensive coordinator in the fold and running Rahim Sanders returned from injury with 103 yards on 18 carries. Putting up 39 points against Florida is a start, but Auburn’s defense is on a much more talented unit. A win here by the Tigers and then a cruise control win next week vs New Mexico State gets them in a more desirable bowl game. Wrong team favored!
Pro’s pick: Auburn 26, Arkansas 22
Hero says: Auburn has found a winning formula in the last two SEC games led by an improving running game and strong defense. The Hogs finally broke through on the road last week to win a close game in the Swamp. It will be interesting to see if a rejuvenated Arkansas offense led by dual threat quarterback KJ Jefferson can help the Razorbacks win out and make a bowl game. The Tigers want to make a bowl game as well and can qualify with a victory in Fayetteville. This game should be very competitive but the home field advantage for the Hogs could be the difference.
Hero’s pick: Arkansas 27, Auburn 23
No.8 Alabama (8-1, 6-0 SEC) at Kentucky (6-3, 3-3 SEC)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 38-2-1.
Spread: Alabama by 10.5
Trendy: Four of Alabama’s last five games have been over in total points. The narrow victory against Arkansas was a push at 45 total points. The points total for Alabama at Kentucky is 48.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe rushed for 155 yards against LSU. It was the fifth-most rushing yards by an Alabama quarterback in school history.
Joe says: All the buzz is surrounding Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, but can we talk about something first? I’m happy for former Kentucky quarterback Will Levis, who is now the new starting quarterback of the Tennessee Titans. Everyone was laughing at Levis on draft day for falling out of the first round, but Levis has been excellent. Kentucky? They miss him after all. Cats quarterback Devin Leary hasn’t been a great fit and he’s probably going to have trouble with Alabama’s surging defense. Expect a big game from Milroe. Tide’s back up.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 48, Kentucky 14
Pro says: For the third time this season Alabama didn’t turn the ball over on offense and won. The first two times that happened Alabama turned it over two times in their next game. Getting revenge on LSU was huge. I don’t expect Alabama to muck it up enough to cover. Toughest game of the six pack to handicap.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 30, Kentucky 20
Hero says: Coming off a huge victory over LSU last Saturday, the Tide better not overlook the Wildcats in Lexington. As long as the Alabama offense stays in the creative mode they displayed against LSU, quarterback Jalen Milroe and crew should be able to create big plays against a good Kentucky defense. To have a chance at the upset, the Wildcat offense led by quarterback Devin Leary will need to have success in the passing game to complement strong running back Ray Davis. This game could turn into a nervous finish for the Tide, but they seem to be riding some late-season momentum to the SEC championship game.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 34, Kentucky 21