The math is pretty simple for the Troy Trojans— don’t lose twice in their final three games, and they will probably host the Sun Belt Conference championship game for the second straight year.

The Trojans (7-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) are 21.5-point favorites in Saturday’s game at Louisiana-Monroe (2-7, 0-6) and will likely be at least a double-digit bet in the regular-season finale at Southern Miss (2-7, 1-5) on Nov. 25. In between is a home game against decidedly friskier Louisiana, though the Ragin’ Cajuns just lost their starting quarterback indefinitely with a leg injury.

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Troy also holds the Sun Belt West Division tiebreaker over the two teams tied for second place, having already beaten Arkansas State and Texas State this year. Thus, it would take a major breakdown in the final three weeks of the season for Jon Sumrall’s Trojans not to be playing for the conference title on Dec. 2.

Nevertheless, the Trojans are taking a business-like approach headed down the stretch. After all, it’s gotten them this far.

“We go week-by-week around here,” Troy linebacker Raymond Cutts said. “We don’t really worry about what’s in front of us, because we know we’re going to get there eventually. We’re just putting in the work for the weeks leading up to the conference championship or whatever it is. We don’t really care about hosting (the Sun Belt championship game) and all that stuff. We just want to do what we’ve got to do, finish the season how we’re supposed to and we’ll get the outcome we’re supposed to at the end of the season.”

Troy — which has won six straight games since a 16-14 loss to James Madison on Sept. 16 — got to this point by playing dominant second-half football over the last five weeks in particular. In wins over Arkansas State, Georgia State, Army, Texas State and South Alabama, the Trojans have outscored their opponents 80-9 over the final two quarters.

The South Alabama game was emblematic of the way Troy has closed out games during its recent run. The Jaguars kicked a field goal to pull within 14-10 with 11:47 left in the game, but the Trojans then held the ball for nearly eight minutes before scoring a clinching touchdown with 3:21 to play, then tacked on another to win going away.

“It was just about staying locked into the game and not flinching,” said Troy wide receiver Chris Lewis, who had three touchdown catches in the game. “On the sideline, the message was just to keep going and keep our heads down. We knew that South has a good offense and they have playmakers. So we knew we had to put more points on the board to put them away.”

Louisiana-Monroe has lost seven straight since a 2-0 start, mixing in close calls with blowouts. The Warhawks came within a point of beating Appalachian State (losing 41-40) and Texas State (21-20), but were thoroughly dominated by Texas A&M (47-3) and South Alabama (55-7) and lost by double-digits to Georgia Southern (38-28), Arkansas State (34-24) and Southern Miss (24-7).

The Southern Miss loss was particularly disheartening, as the Golden Eagles also came in winless in Sun Belt play. But Southern Miss jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter and ULM never seriously challenged.

“That’s the hardest part about coaching — when you lose, you’ve got to keep the motivation up,” ULM coach Terry Bowden said. “You’ve got to find ways to inspire guys to be their best. But you look at games every week, and here’s a team that’s having a tough year and maybe loses a quarterback, and all of a sudden, they rise up to the occasion and knock off a Top 10 team or they knock off one of the best teams in the conference. It happens every single week.

“… But the object of being a head coach, you become a little bit of cheerleader, you become a little of a soothing psychologist, to try and motivate those guys.”

Not that the opponent has mattered much for Troy the last two years. The Trojans have won 16 of 18 games dating back to last September, and are 12-2 in Sun Belt play under Sumrall.

Included in that ledger is a perfect 9-0 mark against the Sun Belt West. The Trojans have beaten the three Sun Belt teams they’ve faced this year by an average score of 32-9.

“It’s huge,” Sumrall said. “This is a tough league, man. Louisiana’s got players. South Alabama’s got maybe as much talent as anyone in our league roster-wise. Texas State is much-improved. Arkansas State is playing good. Monroe has got players — they beat us on a bunch of recruits last year. Southern Miss has got good players. So to win our league is very hard. I think back to when I was coaching in the SEC, and this is like a Group of 5 version of being in the SEC every week. It’s a slugfest.”

Troy’s defense has been outstanding all year, and leads the Sun Belt in scoring defense (16.1 points per game), total defense (295.6 yards per game), passing defense (189.6 ypg) and third-down defense (29.2%) and ranks second in rushing defense (106.0 ypg). The Trojans have allowed just four touchdowns against conference teams this season, none in the second half.

But it is on offense that Troy has shown the most improvement this year, with the passing game beginning to catch up with the rushing attack. Kimani Vidal ranks second nationally in rushing yards with 1,118, but quarterback Gunnar Watson has been playing the best football of his career of late — including a string of 124 consecutive passes without an interception.

“He’s played really well, really clean the last couple of weeks,” Sumrall said. “I didn’t think we protected him as good (vs. South Alabama) as we have the previous couple, but he played like a veteran. He’s just been steady and really sound. I tell people all the team, I don’t know if Gunnar’s going to win a beauty pageant, but he’s going to win football games because he does all the right things. He takes care of the football and makes good decisions. He’s the ultimate team guy and he leads this team really well.”

Kickoff for Troy-ULM on Saturday is set for 1 p.m. at Malone Stadium in Monroe, La. The game will stream live via ESPN+.