Why 2023 Alabama-Tennessee will look so different from last year
In the moment, there was so much to digest.
Seeing Chase McGrath’s 40-yard knuckleball field goal clear the crossbar unleashed a wave of emotions still echoing through the hollers of East Tennessee. The scoreboard left in its wake was fascinating.
Tennessee 52, Alabama 49.
Just so much to ponder.
A year later, the reunion feels more like an orientation and those numbers look more like multiples of what you’ll see in Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Not saying this will be another 12-10 game that requires Terrance Cody confronting a field goal, but the third Saturday of this October won’t look much like the last one.
The guys in the desert agree as the over-under for this one sits in the 48.5-point range. That’s the total, combined score — one that doesn’t even equal the loser’s output from last year.
A rock fight it will be.
These two enter the 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday game ranked sixth (Alabama’s 28.5) and ninth (Tennessee’s 25.7) among scoring offenses in the SEC. A year ago, Tennessee led the league with 43.4 points a game followed by No. 2 Alabama at 39.6.
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Last season, the two brought leading Heisman candidates to Neyland Stadium last Oct. 15.
This season, their replacements are still figuring things out.
Where Hendon Hooker and Bryce Young were two of the top three SEC quarterbacks in terms of passing yards, Jalen Milroe is No. 7 this year and Joe Milton is No. 9. Both have big arms capable of game-changing moments of all varieties.
Alabama’s got the 82nd-best passing offense this year compared to Tennessee at No. 88.
The best news for Alabama: Jalin Hyatt is a New York Giant and can’t hurt you anymore. Visions of five touchdowns in six catches that totaled 207 yards will live in the nightmares of a few members of the secondary.
Last week’s appetizers were enough to kill some of the anticipation of Saturday’s game. The Vols scored one offensive touchdown and threw for exactly 100 yards in 20-13 win over Texas A&M that appeared to be played in quicksand.
It was frankly hard to watch — another example of the difference between good games and close games. So was Alabama’s weekly dose of adrenaline-induced anxiety as a comfortable 24-6 lead over Arkansas turned into a 27-24 cheek-clincher.
On a positive note, these two have vastly improved defenses. They are Nos. 3 and 4 in total defense in league play in total defense led by Tennessee and second/fourth in scoring defense paced by the Tide.
Both teams get after the quarterback as Tennessee ranks fourth nationally in sacks per game (4.00) followed by Alabama in fifth (3.71). The Tide is 129th in sacks allowed but it’s also worth noting seven of the 24 total sacks from the Vols came against FCS-level Austin Peay.
Ultimately, so much of this will come down to how the battles up front shake out. Last year, Alabama couldn’t get to Hooker, allowing the deep-ball passer to carve up the secondary. The Vols also controlled the line of scrimmage in the running game as Jaylen Wright averaged 5.9 yards a carry. The Vols have the nation’s No. 6 rushing offense this year — crossing the 230-yard mark in each of its last two wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M.
Alabama’s ground game has been inconsistent but showed signs of life early in the second half against Arkansas. Tennessee hasn’t faced many ground-oriented attacks but allowed 183 yards (4.3 per carry) and three rushing touchdowns in its only loss of the year, a 29-16 final at Florida. Alabama managed just 23 rushing yards two weeks ago at Texas A&M (0.9 average) before going for 177 last week (4.2 average) against Arkansas.
Bottom line: Who knows?
If Alabama hits a few big passes like it has the past few weeks, it could be a good day for the home team. But if there ever was a game where a turnover or two could swing it, here it is.
But if I’m sure of anything, it’s this game won’t be a shootout.
Neither has the offensive potential for anything in the 52-49 range. The fact both have improved defenses only drives home that truth.
And if we’re being honest, this has the potential to be a classically ugly game.
It’ll have all the pomp and pageantry of a perfect third Saturday of October afternoon, but this sportswriter isn’t overly disappointed to attend a family wedding instead.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.