NOAAâs 2023-2024 winter outlook: Any snow in Alabamaâs forecast?
The big question with any winter forecast in Alabama is: Is there a chance for snow?
There’s always a chance. But most of the time it’s not a great chance.
What about this winter?
Alabama could have more chances for precipitation this winter, according to the 2023-2024 winter outlook from NOAA, which was released on Thursday.
Now, whether those higher precipitation chances coincide with colder air and generate snow is anyone’s guess.
The winter outlook covers meteorological winter, or the months of December, January and February.
El Nino will be a strong influence on this winter’s weather, according to forecasters.
The Climate Prediction Center suggests there will be an increased probability of above-average precipitation for much of Alabama — and a large part of the southern U.S. as well.
There will be equal chances of above-average or below-average temperatures for Alabama this winter, according to the outlook.
The precipitation outlook is at the top of this post. Below is the temperature outlook:
Alabama’s temperatures this winter have equal chances of being above or below average, according to this outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
For the U.S. as a whole, NOAA is predicting wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, parts of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic. Drier-than-average conditions will be possible across the northern tier of the U.S.
“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino is a climate phenomenon which is signaled by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Those warmer waters can influence weather patterns worldwide.
This El Nino could last through the winter. It could be a strong one, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
The winter outlook doesn’t guarantee that Alabama will have snow over the winter months, however.
NOAA said its seasonal outlooks do not project seasonal snowfall accumulations because snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
But above-average precipitation could help in the drought department. Drought conditions have persisted — and worsened — across parts of the state this week.
Drought conditions backed off a bit in a few spots but expanded in others in the past week. Not much if any improvement is expected in the coming week with little rain in the forecast.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, released Thursday, shows that a good part of the state is in moderate to severe drought, and parts of south Alabama are in extreme drought. (It also should be noted that October is typically one of Alabama’s driest months.)
Some things to look for this fall and winter:
* The time changes Nov. 5.
* The Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
* Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1.
* Astronomical winter begins Dec. 21.
* Meteorological spring begins March 1, 2024.
* Daylight-saving time begins March 10, 2024.
* Astronomical spring begins March 19, 2024.