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Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins have sprinted out of the gates this season, making Tua a legitimate MVP and Comeback Player of the Year candidate.

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NFL future betting picks: Tua Tagovailoa MVP and Comeback Player of the Year odds

Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP (+525 or better)

Across the industry-leading sportsbooks, Tua trails only Patrick Mahomes in the MVP odds market despite Tagovailoa having more passing yards and touchdowns. The former Alabama star’s 1,614 yards are the most in the NFL through Week 5, and it’s not a close race, as Kirk Cousin ranks second, trailing by 116 yards.

The key to Tagovailoa’s dominance is the assortment of weapons at his disposal. Miami has the fastest offense in the NFL, headlined by Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Raheem Mostert.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins’ trio has accounted for the top-five fastest plays by ball carriers this season, as all ran 21 MPH and above on chunk-yardage plays. Hill and Mostert’s success is unsurprising, but Achane’s playmaking abilities have added another layer to Miami’s offense.

Achane got just one carry for five yards in Week 1, but his stock has skyrocketed since, as the rookie’s 460 rushing yards are the second-most in the NFL. With defenses forced to focus on Achane, Jaylen Waddle will also benefit as he aims to notch a third-straight season with 1,000+ receiving yards.

The Dolphins offense is as good as it gets in the NFL, with a league-leading 36 points per game. If Tua and his array of playmakers can stay healthy throughout the year, Tagovailoa will be on a short list of players fighting to win NFL MVP.

Tua Tagovailoa to win Comeback Player of the Year (+1000 or better)

Tagovailoa had similar success in 2022, but injuries limited the 25-year-old to just 13 games, and he was also sidelined in Miami’s postseason loss to the Buffalo Bills. One thing the Dolphins are doing to maintain Tua’s health is keeping him in the pocket, as the QB has only rushed the ball 13 times for 21 yards.

If Tagovailoa can maintain his health, his passing stats should only improve as the season chugs along. But Tua trails Damar Hamlin heavily in the CPOY odds market, as the Bills safety’s odds are as low as -200 to claim the award.

Hamlin has been inactive in four games this season, and his lone appearance came in Buffalo’s Week 4 win vs. Miami. Hamlin was elevated to the Bills’ game-day roster due to injuries in the secondary.

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