Week 10 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 13th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms. Joe is the reigning king of the picks, but we could only find a jester’s cap ‘n’ bells for him to wear.
Perhaps it is true, then, what William Shakespeare wrote in “King Lear.”
“Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard.
What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than the Hero. Nobody. Abercrombie played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
REGISTER NOW FOR “3.2 FOR BEN”
We’re putting together a team of elite sports heroes.
You don’t have to be fast. You don’t have to be strong. You don’t have to be skilled in the ways of pickleball and mall-cop karate like Joe. You just have to sign up and join “Team Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero” for the Hero’s annual benefit run, 3.2 for Ben.
It’s a virtual event, so you can participate from anywhere in the world.
The Hero loves picking games for this feature and beating Joe just about every week. Ben is Joe’s Hero. Paralyzed but working hard every day to maintain his body while also going to Harvard, Ben uses a keyboard adapted to his eyesight to write. He breathes with the help of a ventilator. He wins every single day of his life.
Join Joe in celebrating the Hero by participating in 3.2 for Ben. Sign up to join Joe’s team for the event. The team name is “Team Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Register now and be a hero for our Hero.
Before we get started, check out last week!
LAST WEEK
Joe: 2-4 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Pro: 5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread
Hero: 5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread
Notes: Huge week for Hero, and Pro was the only player to pick Alabama State’s victory against Alabama A&M in the Magic City Classic. Joe’s week of upsets didn’t kill against the spread, but he’s not complaining because Carnell Williams is now the head coach at Auburn.
OVERALL
Joe: 35-19 straight up, 27-26-1 against the spread
Pro: 37-17 straight up, 26-27-1 against the spread
Hero: 42-12 straight up, 28-25-1 against the spread
Notes: Hero had the big come up. He’s now in the lead across the board. Joe built a nice hole for himself in Week 9, and he’s now seven games behind Hero straight up. Joe will continue to take chances here in the grand experiment, but it’s a 100 percent guarantee that he will give every person a shoutout in print who joins Team Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero for the Hero’s annual benefit race. The 3.2 for Ben is a virtual event so everyone can either participate in the 3.2-mile run or donate. Follow the link and join Joe’s team. On to the picks!
No.4 Clemson (8-0) at Notre Dame (5-3)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.
TV: NBC/Peacock
Series: Clemson leads 4-2.
Spread: Clemson by 4.
Trendy: Notre Dame is 0-4 against the spread in home games.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Five blocked punts for Notre Dame gives the Irish a tie for the lead nationally in that category with South Carolina.
Joe says: Notre Dame has been all over the place this season. The Irish lost to Marshall, but Notre Dame is the only team with a win against North Carolina. Notre Dame looked pretty bad in its rivalry loss to Stanford, but last week the Irish were good in a win against Syracuse. The book on ND isn’t a mystery. When Notre Dame runs the ball well they usually win games because the defense is elite. Clemson has the defensive line to make things difficult, but this one seems like a fair fight. I’ll take the upset under the lights of Notre Dame Stadium.
Joe’s pick: Notre Dame 23, Clemson 20
Pro says: Notre Dame has won five of their last six games playing smash ball and quarterback Drew Pyne throwing underneath to future NFL tight end Michael Mayer. Even with that game plan, the last three weeks Pyne has completed just 36 of 74 passes and doesn’t appear to be the type of quarterback that can lead his team to a win over a Top 10 team. Clemson is more diverse on offense with running back Will Shipley. He has 293 rushing yards on a 6.2 yards per carry average the last two weeks. On top of that, Clemson has a group of ascending receivers. Clemson moves to 9-0 with plenty of room to spare.
Pro’s pick: Clemson 28, Notre Dame 17
Hero says: Notre Dame played better last week in easily beating Syracuse, but the Orange were without their starting quarterback for most of the game. Clemson has been winning ugly most of the year. They needed their backup quarterback to lead them to victory over Syracuse in their last game. Clemson has had an extra week to prepare for this game and even though the game is played at South Bend I expect the Tigers to find a way to beat the Fighting Irish on the road.
Hero’s pick: Clemson 27, Notre Dame 21
Florida (4-4, 1-4 SEC) at Texas A&M (3-4, 1-4 SEC)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
TV: ESPN
Series: Texas A&M leads 3-2.
Spread: Texas A&M by 3.5.
Trendy: Texas A&M has lost four in a row.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Pike County’s Quinshon Judkins rushed for 205 yards on 34 carries last week in Ole Miss’ 31-28 victory against Texas A&M.
Joe says: Texas A&M has lost a lot of close games this season because its offense can’t sustain drives and then has trouble scoring touchdowns when it gets into the red zone. The Aggies have 15 touchdowns in the red zone, which is dead last in the SEC. Vanderbilt has 17. This cross-divisional game looked a lot better at the beginning of the season, but it remains an important test for both head coaches. Aggies are down to their third-string QB but freshman Conner Weigman looked pretty good against Ole Miss. He had four passing touchdowns in his debut. Believe it or not, Weigman might be the key to finally getting A&M off the mat.
Joe’s pick: Texas A&M 31, Florida 17
Pro says: The Aggie defense has faced three totally different offenses in Mississippi State, which is pass happy, Ole Miss, which likes to run early and often, and Alabama, a team that does everything well. Florida doesn’t do any one thing on offense well and the Aggies might have found their quarterback in true freshman Connor Weigman. Don’t overthink this matchup. The Aggies are better on both sides of the ball and will be playing at home.
Pro’s pick: Texas A&M 30, Florida 20
Hero says: Both teams are coming off tough losses last week. A&M freshman quarterback Conner Weigman is taking his lumps, but appears to be improving and is going up against a Gator defense that has been beat down in the last two games. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is at his best when he is a big threat to take off running, but that got him banged up last week. I don’t think Richardson will be as eager to take off running in this game and expose himself to hard tackles by the Aggie defense. A&M coach Jimbo Fisher may finally get a solid win at home over an SEC opponent.
Hero’s pick: Texas A&M 34, Florida 27
No.1 Tennessee (8-0, 4-0 SEC) at No.2 Georgia (8-0, 5-0 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.
TV: CBS
Series: Georgia leads 26-23-2.
Spread: Georgia by 8.5.
Trendy: Georgia has won five in a row.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee is tops in the country in total offense at 553.0 yards per game. Georgia is second with 530.1 ypg.
Joe says: Did I wake up this morning back in high school? November is here and Tennessee is the No.1 team in the country. I thought Tennessee would have trouble getting up for Kentucky after that emotional victory against Alabama. Yeah … no. These Volunteers seem pretty much unflappable and in a lot of ways that win against Kentucky was every bit as impressive as the one against the Crimson Tide. Kentucky had no chance, losing 44-6. The Wildcats aren’t a bad team. This is the game of the year in the SEC. Too much Orange juice for the Dawgs to handle.
Joe’s pick: Tennessee 38, Georgia 35
Pro says: The Vols’ offense vs. LSU, Alabama and Kentucky has averaged 45.3 points per game. The Georgia defense poses the toughest test as this game will be in Athens and the Dawgs’ D ranks fourth in total defense. Where the edge lies in this game is with the Georgia second-ranked offense against the 82nd defense of Tennessee. This isn’t a best of three-, five- or seven-game series. I feel for just one game Georgia’s defense will slow down the Vols’ high-powered offense and chew up their undermanned defense.
Pro’s pick: Georgia 48, Tennessee 34
Hero says: The College Football Playoff Committee did Tennessee no favors in ranking the Vols No.1 and the Bulldogs No.3 this week. Even though this ranking may be fair based on this season so far, the ranking gives UGA coach Kirby Smart the opportunity to motivate his Bulldogs to become the “hunter” rather than the “hunted.” Josh Heupel’s offense will still be very difficult to slow down with Hendon Hooker at quarterback and an outstanding offensive line and receiving core. However, Georgia also has an effective offense led by experienced quarterback Stetson Bennett and do-everything tight end Brock Bowers, who is averaging 42 points a game. UGA has the better defense and should make enough stops to help the Bulldogs pull the “upset” at home in Athens.
Hero’s pick: Georgia 38, Tennessee 35
UTSA (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) at UAB (4-4, 2-3 CUSA)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala.
TV: Stadium Channel
Series: UAB leads 4-2.
Spread: UTSA by 1.
Trendy: UAB is 0-3 against the spread in its last three games.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: This is the 141st football game for UTSA after beginning its program 12 years ago. The Roadrunners all-time record? It stands at 70-70 entering Week 10.
Joe says: UAB’s only victory against a team with a winning record was against Georgia Southern in Week 3. The Blazers’ offense is just too predictable at this point in the season. UAB didn’t score in the second half last week in the loss to FAU. The Roadrunners have a balanced attack with dual-threat quarterback Frank Harris, but UTSA also has one of the best passing attacks in the country. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor has things pretty well figured out in CUSA at this point. Can’t back the Blazers even in this revenge game.
Joe’s pick: UTSA 36, UAB 30
Pro says: At 4-4, this game is huge if the Blazers have designs on going to a bowl game. The offense runs much smoother with Dylan Hopkins under center and he’s expected back after missing last week due to a concussion. On the season, he’s completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. UAB is ranked Top 20 in scoring defense and should be able to limit UTSA quarterback Frank Harris. The Blazers get revenge for last year’s 34-31 loss.
Pro’s pick: UAB 27, UTSA 24
Hero says: UTSA is coming off an emotional victory over North Texas that put them in first place in CUSA. The Blazers are coming off another disappointing road loss, but return home to Protective Stadium where they are undefeated this year. UAB should be able to ride a strong running game and solid defense to another home victory over a Roadrunner team that may experience a slight let down after their big victory last week.
Hero’s pick: UAB 28, UTSA 24
Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC) at Mississippi State (5-3, 2-3 SEC)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
TV: ESPN2
Series: Auburn leads 65-28-2.
Spread: State by 13.
Trendy: Joe is 1-6 against the spread with Auburn.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: State quarterback Will Rogers leads the SEC in passing yards per game (319.4) and passing touchdowns (23). He’s also the only quarterback in the league averaging over 300 passing yards per game.
Joe says: The Coach Caddy Era is here. With Bryan Harsin out at Auburn, former assistant Carnell “Cadillac” Williams is now the interim head coach. I don’t know how long it’s going to last, but I’m going to enjoy it every week until Auburn finds a permanent coach. Auburn’s defense should be reenergized for this one, and quarterback Robby Ashford is starting to look like a long-term option. This line is too high. Tigers will fight until the end for their new coach. I’m expecting a wild one.
Joe’s pick: Mississippi State 42, Auburn 39
Pro says: The Tigers fired their head coach. Will they rally and give a spirited effort? They are a weak run defense, allowing 245 or more yards in four of the eight games. The good news in this matchup is that Mississippi State rarely runs the ball going over the century mark only three times this season. I won’t back Auburn much going forward, but expect them to keep this game close for at least three quarters.
Pro’s pick: Mississippi State 31, Auburn 21
Hero says: The Auburn football team was put in a tough situation for this game, especially the offense, when both their head coach and offensive coordinator were fired earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs had an off week to recover from two SEC road losses and should be primed to get their season back on track. The Tigers were probably not winning this game even if Bryan Harsin was coaching them but now, I expect it will get ugly for the Tigers in Starkville on Saturday night.
Hero’s pick: Mississippi State 41, Auburn 17
No.6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC) at No.10 LSU (6-2, 4-1 SEC)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 55-26-5.
Spread: Alabama by 13.
Trendy: Joe is 3-0 against the spread with Alabama over the last three games.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is sixth in the SEC yards per passing attempt (8.6).
Joe says: Alabama’s offense doesn’t have the weapons this season to go on the road and shut up an opposing stadium in the first quarter. Crowd noise in the SEC makes a big difference no matter who’s at quarterback. It’s just different in this league, and Death Valley will be rocking for this one. Brian Kelly, LSU’s first-year coach, has people believing once again, and the Tigers’ defense is growing up fast. Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels will do enough to keep this one close into the fourth quarter, but I’m not about to pick against Alabama twice in one season.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 33, LSU 28
Pro says: One rule I usually adhere to is never go against a hot quarterback. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has led the offense to 45 points in both victories over Florida and Ole Miss. Bama’s offensive line, wide receivers and defense don’t appear to be playing at or near championship levels. They also are a horrific 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games. This could end up being one of those fantastic finishes in Baton Rouge.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 38, LSU 34
Hero says: LSU coach Brian Kelly has his best shot yet to beat a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team this Saturday night in Baton Rouge. Kelly’s Notre Dame teams were not much competition for Alabama when they faced them, but this improving Tiger squad will be a handful for the Tide. LSU’s offense put up 45 points in the last two games led by transfer quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Bama defense bounced back in their last game to shut down the Mississippi State offense with LSU transfer cornerback Eli Ricks looking like a game changer. Alabama has been very undisciplined on the road this year with double-digit penalties in all road games. If Bama plays a clean game, I like their chances with Tide quarterback Bryce Young out-dueling Jayden Daniels in another classic LSU-Bama rivalry game.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 34, LSU 27