Week 4 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

Week 4 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Week 4 picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Week 4 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.

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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.

This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Fill out the Google Form to submit your picks and then sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to see how your picks stand up against other readers, the experts and Joe. The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.

Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT

Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.

The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.

No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.

Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.

6-0 CHALLENGE

Amazing. Another week of the grand experiment, and another pile of picks without a perfect record. We had 170 reader entries for Week 3. No one hit a Yahtzee. We’re four weeks into the season and we still haven’t had a single reader put together a 6-0 parlay with their picks. Better luck this week. Take the 6-0 challenge, and if you go 6-0 against the spread we’ll give you a shout out in Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero. Click the link here and make your picks for the week by filling out the form.

LAST WEEK

Joe: 3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread

Pro: 5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread

Hero: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Notes: The Pro is sitting pretty this week in sunny South Florida. His only miss against the spread was Alabama. Pro nailed road dogs South Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina and Florida.

THIS SEASON

Joe: 11-7 straight up, 10-8 against the spread

Pro: 14-4 straight up, 9-9 against the spread

Hero: 11-7 straight up, 8-10 against the spread

Notes: The SEC’s non-conference struggles haven’t helped Joe pay off the Fender Stratocaster he bought at the pawn on Oporto Madrid Blvd. He loves to play the blues, but doesn’t have any more credit to lose. On to the picks!

Colorado head coach Deion Sanders runs onto the field with his team for a an NCAA college football game against TCU Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in Fort Worth, Texas. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

No.19 Colorado (3-0, 0-0) at No.10 Oregon (3-0, 0-0)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.

TV: ABC

Series: Oregon leads 15-9.

Spread: Oregon by 20.5

Trendy: Oregon is 2-0 against the spread against FBS opponents.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Oregon is one of two teams in the country yet to allow a turnover this season. Penn State is the other.

Joe says: It feels like Colorado is suddenly America’s team. An upset isn’t out of the question, but Team Coach Prime will be at a disadvantage without superstar Travis Hunter. The Buffaloes were 21-point road dogs to TCU in the season opener, but Hunter played 121 snaps in that game between offense, defense and special teams. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is no stranger to big games, and his experience will be the difference here.

Joe’s pick: Oregon 35, Colorado 33

Pro says: While the Buffaloes’ first two wins were impressive against TCU and Nebraska, quite a few cracks started to show in the overtime win over bottom feeder Colorado State. Now they’ll have to go on the road to face an Oregon offense that averages 58 points per game without Buffs defender Travis Hunter. I’m guessing the home crowd in Eugene will be chanting “overrated” by the end of the third quarter.

Pro’s pick: Oregon 54, Colorado 21

Hero says: Coach Prime and Colorado have been proving their doubters wrong so far this year and when you watch the Buffalos, they look like a well coached team with talented players like quarterback Shedeur Sanders. They face their biggest test so far this season in traveling to Oregon to face the Ducks. Oregon’s offense led by quarterback Bo Nix is hard to stop, averaging 587 yards and 58 points per game even though the competition has not been great so far this season. The Ducks defense has only been giving up 286 yards per game but stopping Colorado will be a bigger challenge. Unfortunately, Colorado will be missing star receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter in this game, so I have to go with the Ducks at home.

Hero’s pick: Oregon 45, Colorado 27

Sam Hartman

Notre Dame Sam Hartman celebrates with Zeke Correll during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Central Michigan on Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in South Bend, Ind.AP Photo/Michael Caterina

No.6 Ohio State (3-0) at No.9 Notre Dame (4-0)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.

TV: NBC

Series: Ohio State leads 5-2.

Spread: Ohio State by 3.

Trendy: Notre Dame has scored over 40 points in every game this season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Notre Dame is 10th nationally in third-down conversion percentage (54.5). Ohio State is tied for 93rd (36.4).

Joe says: This is a mega game of enormous possibilities, or at least it feels that way considering Notre Dame and Ohio State have only played each other seven times throughout their storied histories. Notre Dame won the transfer sweepstakes with quarterback Sam Hartman and it’s paying off. The Irish defense also appears to be a strength this season. Fans of Southern football might disagree, but it would be great for college football if Notre Dame ends up returning to glory thanks to the NIL era. We’ll learn a lot with this one. Go Irish.

Joe’s pick: Notre Dame 38, Ohio State 24

Pro says: How much of an improvement has transfer quarterback Sam Hartman from Wake Forest been to this Notre Dame offense? Last year the Fighting Irish quarterbacks had thrown for only three touchdowns and had three interceptions after three games. So far after four games this season, Notre Dame quarterbacks have 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Home-field advantage for the Irish, and the fact new Buckeye quarterback Kyle McCord struggled in his first road game at Indiana, have to get factored in when handicapping this game. Ohio State is also only a dreadful 1-7 against the spread the last eight games as a road favorite. Wrong team favored!

Pro’s pick: Notre Dame 28, Ohio State 24

Hero says: This is a huge game for Notre Dame in South Bend. If they win this game, they have a great shot at making the playoffs. Ohio State could lose this game and still make the playoffs by winning the Big 10 championship. Motivation, home field advantage and the fact that the Fighting Irish have the more proven quarterback in super transfer Sam Hartman are enough to convince me that the Irish can upset the Buckeyes this Saturday night.

Hero’s pick: Notre Dame 38, Ohio State 31

Brian Kelly

LSU head coach Brian Kelly, right, has a discussion with referee Derek Anderson during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Florida State, Sunday, Sept. 3, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)AP

Arkansas (2-1, 0-0) at No.12 LSU (2-1, 1-0)

When: 6 p.m., Sat.

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, La.

TV: ESPN

Series: LSU leads 43-23-2.

Spread: LSU by 18.

Trendy: Arkansas is 0-2 against the spread this season after last week’s home loss to BYU.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Cougars won in Fayetteville despite only gaining 281 yards of total offense.

Joe says: Second half giveaways by Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson cost the Hogs last week against BYU. Arkansas couldn’t get it done against the Cougs despite an 88-yard punt return for a touchdown in the first quarter. LSU had its own problems out of conference (loss to FSU), so this one will probably be a great game between rivals. They play for a trophy shaped like a boot, but if Arkansas gets blown out I’ll eat my shoe.

Joe’s pick: LSU 28, Arkansas 21

Pro says: The Tigers dismantling Mississippi State in Starkvegas, combined with Arkansas blowing a 31-21 third quarter lead at home to BYU, has probably pushed this line from around minus-10 to a robust minus-18. Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson presents different problems to the Tigers’ defense than Bulldog quarterback Will Rogers because of his duel-threat capabilities. Don’t even factor in last year’s 13-10 game because Jefferson was out with an injury. To the wire!

Pro’s pick: LSU 34, Arkansas 28

Hero says: LSU dominated Mississippi State in Starkville last week while Arkansas could not hold off BYU at home. The Hogs defense may be slightly improved over last year but they will have a hard time slowing down an explosive Tiger offense led by quarterback Jayden Daniels. I believe the Arkansas offense led by senior quarterback KJ Jefferson can score enough to keep the game interesting, but you must go with the Bayou Bengals on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

Hero’s pick: LSU 41, Arkansas 24

Georgia South Carolina

Georgia mascot Uga XI patrols the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against South Carolina Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, Ga. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)AP

UAB (1-2) at No.1 Georgia (3-0)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.

TV: ESPN2

Series: Georgia leads 3-0.

Spread: Georgia leads 42.5

Trendy: UAB is 0-2 against the spread this season and its games have hit over the points totals in back to back weeks. The over/under here is 54.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UAB is ranked 126th in third-down conversion defense (52.8).

Joe says: I covered UAB’s 56-7 loss at Georgia in 2021. The Blazers had a better chance two years ago. UAB’s defense has been a major problem for new coach Trent Dilfer the last two weeks and that was against opponents from the Sun Belt. Kirby Smart isn’t going to cut Dilfer and the Blazers any slack in this one. UAB’s offense isn’t without talent, but scoring in the red zone will be tough and UAB’s kicking game has been shaky, too.

Joe’s pick: Georgia 55, UAB 10

Pro says: UAB has allowed back-to-back teams — neither of which are offensive juggernauts — to score 40-plus points on their defense this year. Now here comes mighty Georgia after scoring only 24 at home against South Carolina. The Bulldogs will be looking to work the kinks out before facing Auburn next week. The Blazers are 0-7 against the spread the last seven road games, and after this beat down Trent Dilfer might want to think about going back to Lipscomb Academy if they’ll take him. Romper Room Special!

Pro’s pick: Georgia 66, UAB 6

Hero says: This appears to be a “name the score” game for Georgia after their hard-fought win last week against South Carolina. I am sure the Bulldogs will be trying to fine tune some things on offense and defense before traveling to Auburn next week. Even though the Blazers’ defense will not get many stops against the UGA offense, I believe the Blazers’ offense will get a late touchdown against the Bulldogs’ backups to end the game under the point spread!

Hero’s pick: UGA 49, UAB 10

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne runs for a touchdown against Samford

Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne runs for a touchdown against Samford on Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn.(AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Auburn (3-0) at Texas A&M (2-1)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

TV: ESPN

Series: Texas A&M leads 7-6.

Spread: Texas A&M by 8.

Trendy: Auburn is 4-1 straight up at Kyle Field since Texas A&M joined the SEC.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Auburn’s defense is tied for second in the SEC with five interceptions. Only Georgia has more (six).

Joe says: Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne came alive last week and I’m hoping it will carry over to Kyle Field. This is a massive test for Auburn coach Hugh Freeze early in the season, and it doesn’t seem very encouraging that Freeze has been emphasizing Auburn’s drop in talent under former coach Bryan Harsin before the game. The early start here should help the Tigers, and Auburn has enough to keep this interesting. Don’t forget: the Tigers upset Texas A&M last season under interim Auburn coach Carnell Williams.

Joe’s pick: Texas A&M 24, Auburn 21

Pro says: Three turnovers and a kick return doomed the Aggies as Miami got their revenge at home two weeks ago. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Texas A&M lost last year at Auburn when they were banged up. This year’s pass offense is averaging 118 more yards per game led by sophomore quarterback Conner Weigman and three or more receivers destined to be playing football soon on Sundays. Revenge served on a cold plate here as Auburn’s offense with no real identity won’t be able to keep up.

Pro’s pick: Texas A&M 37, Auburn 20

Hero says: The Aggies bounced back last week after the beat down in Miami. Auburn has completed the preseason part of their schedule undefeated, but their schedule now gets very challenging beginning in College Station versus A&M. This will be Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne’s first experience of life on the road in the SEC. Even though Auburn caught a break with it being a 11 a.m. kickoff in Texas, the A&M fans will still be loud and supportive of their Aggies in this very critical game for A&M coach Jimbo Fisher. Both defenses are the strength of these teams, so turnovers will play a big role in who wins. The Aggies’ offense led by sophomore quarterback Connor Weigman should have matured enough to protect the football and outscore this young Auburn team.

Hero’s pick: Texas A&M 31, Auburn 20

Quinshon Judkins

Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart pitches out to running back Quinshon Judkins in the first half of an NCAA college football game against Tulane in New Orleans, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP

No.15 Ole Miss (3-0) at No.13 Alabama (2-1)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

TV: CBS

Series: Alabama leads 54-10-2.

Spread: Alabama by 7

Trendy: Alabama hasn’t covered a spread this season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is ranked No.2 nationally in passing yards per completion (18.93). UCLA quarterback Dante Moore is No.1 (19.22).

Joe says: I picked Alabama to win big last week based on the fact that the Tide would have something to prove against South Florida. I’m truly beginning to question my sanity with this team and it’s only the fourth week of the season. Ole Miss Lane Kiffin wouldn’t be chirping all week if he wasn’t confident of a victory here. Oh, wait. Yes he would because he can’t help himself. I’ll take Ole Miss here and hope for the best when Jalen Milroe is needed to keep Alabama in the game.

Joe’s pick: Alabama 39, Ole Miss 35

Pro says: In a desperate move, Nick Saban made a quarterback change against South Florida. To say Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson failed would be an understatement. Both looked pedestrian at best in Alabama’s 17-3 snore-fest against a less-than-stellar South Florida squad. It’s back to square one as Saban gives Jalen Milroe another shot against a hungry Rebels squad that hasn’t beaten Alabama the last seven times they have squared off. The Ole Miss offense is averaging 8.1 yards per snap while Bama is at a pedestrian 5.8. Times are a changing. Upset alert!

Pro’s pick: Ole Miss 31, Alabama 27

Hero says: Based on the performance of the teams so far this season, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels will be coming into Bryant-Denny Stadium very confident they can beat Bama. Kiffin and former Alabama defensive coordinator Pete Golding would love to beat their former boss, so I am sure they have been preparing for this game since last spring. I would not be shocked if the Tide wakes up and wins the game, but it is going to have to win the turnover battle for that to happen. Maturing Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is the type of dual-threat player that has broken the hearts of Bama fans at home games during the Saban era. If the moment isn’t too big for the Rebels in front of a hostile Tide crowd, they have the offensive firepower to earn the biggest win in Lane Kiffin’s head coaching career.

Hero’s pick: Ole Miss 28, Alabama 24