The latest forecast of Social Security’s 2024 cost-of-living-adjustment has inched upwards.

The nonpartisan The Senior Citizens League forecasts the COLA will be 3.2% based on a jump in consumer price data through August. A 3.2% COLA would raise the average monthly retiree benefits of $1,790 by $57.30.

The 3.2% COLA is significantly lower than the 8.7% received in 2023, the highest COLA in more than four decades and higher than the average over the past 20 years which was 2.6%. Last month, the Social Security increase was projected to be 3%.

The official COLA for 2024 is expected to be announced in mid-October.

READ MORE: Social Security COLA: Here’s what the average Social Security payment will be this fall

Federal law requires an annual inflation adjustment based on the average inflation during July, August, and September as determined by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Inflation for these three months is added together and averaged, then compared with the third quarter average from one year ago. The percentage difference between the two is the amount of the COLA, which would be payable for the check received in January 2024.

The actual bottom line for retirees won’t be known until November when Medicare premiums are announced.

The Social Security Administration automatically deducts Medicare Part B premiums from Social Security benefits before the benefits are received. Early forecasts show Medicare Part B premiums are expected to increase from $164 to $174 in 2024, although coverage of a new Alzheimer’s drug could push that final figure even higher.