In Hugh Freeze’s first year as Auburn’s head coach, there’s a monster opponent that he and the Tigers will have to face this season.

It’s not his former program Ole Miss or Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Heck, it’s not even the two-time defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs, who come to visit Jordan-Hare Stadium on Sept. 30.

Instead, it’s Auburn’s tussle with the turnover battle.

In 2014, Bill Connelly, who is now with ESPN, published an article asserting that there were five factors to winning college football games: explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives and turnovers.

Connelly’s findings are certainly some that might make you ask — with sarcasm — “Who would’ve thunk?” But even he admits “the most revolutionary ideas are sometimes the simplest”.

Using data from the 2013 college football season, Connelly found that whichever team wins the turnover battle has a 73% chance of winning the football game. So while that factor doesn’t decide as much as the explosiveness battle, winning the turnover battle is important. And Auburn didn’t do much of that last season.

Of the 133 FBS programs in 2022, Auburn ranked 122nd in turnover margin, finishing the season 10 turnovers in the hole.

While the Tigers were able to force 13 turnovers in 2022, they gave up 23 — 12 interceptions and 11 fumbles.

Who was to blame last year?

Robby Ashford, who lost the starting quarterback job to junior Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne earlier this month, was a liability with the football in his hands last fall. Just a freshman, Ashford threw seven interceptions and had nine fumbles.

And as easy as it is to single one guy out, it’s also unfair.

If we’re calling it like it is, Auburn’s offense — from top to bottom — just wasn’t very good last season. While the Tigers had a reliable running back in Tank Bigsby, one guy carrying the football can only get you so far.

When Ashford was looking to pass, he was doing so behind a porous offensive line that gave up 32 sacks and 192 yards in the opposite direction — two marks that rank the Tigers No. 89 in sacks allowed for 2022.

This year, however, whether it’s Thorne, Ashford, Holden Geriner or the kid Freeze invites to walk on after seeing him play catch in a frat yard — whoever is under center for the Tigers should have more time to throw the football and should spend less time with their rear ends in the dirt than they would’ve last fall.

And that’s thanks to the relentless work Freeze and his coaching staff did in the transfer portal in the offseason. Using the depth chart Auburn released Monday, three of the Tigers’ five starting offensive linemen came out of the transfer portal ahead of the 2023 season.

Who can fix it this year?

While it’s easy to look at interceptions and fumbles and point the finger at whoever committed them, Auburn’s offensive line will be the key component in limiting turnovers this fall.

That being said, it does appear that the Tigers are leveling up their quarterback play in handing the keys to Thorne. However, there’s still plenty of room for Thorne to improve.

Last fall, which saw him lose many of his weapons on offense and fight through nagging injuries, Thorne threw 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

Thorne’s 19 touchdowns would’ve tied Kentucky’s Will Levis for the seventh most in the SEC, while Thorne’s 11 interceptions would’ve tied Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart for the second most in the league.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, however, it would be fair to say that Thorne is set to be surrounded by more talent at the receiver positions than he was when he was in East Lansing. The receiving corps was another area Freeze and Co. prioritized as soon as they arrived.

The addition of Jackson State transfer Shane Hooks has proved to come with a huge upside throughout fall camp. Meanwhile, fellow transfers like North Texas transfer Jyaire Shorter, Ohio State transfer Caleb Burton III and FIU tight end transfer Rivaldo Fairweather are all weapons the Tigers added to their arsenal this offseason.

The mix of a stouter offensive line, a more experienced quarterback and a handful of talented receivers – including those who are returning to The Plains, like Ja’Varrius Johnson, Omari Kelly and Jay Fair – all make for a recipe that should help Auburn address the offensive side of turnover issue it had last fall.

However, the Tigers’ defense will have to hold true to its end of the deal, too. And just like the offense, that starts with the big fellas up front either forcing fumbles or forcing opposing quarterbacks to make poor decisions.

Auburn is really without much returning production along the defensive line.

Marcus Harris returns as the Tigers’ leading producer with three quarterback hurries and one pass breakup from 2022. Jayson Jones, on the other hand, returns tallying one quarterback hurry and one fumble recovery.

This fall, it’ll be up to them, along with a slew of transfers to make up for the production lost without Owen Pappoe, Colby Wooden and Derick Hall – three guys who applied the pressure and combined for seven forced fumbles in 2022.

Some guys who could fill those shoes include Maryland transfer defensive end Mosiah Nasili-Kite, freshman defensive end Keldric Faulk, Ole Miss transfer linebacker Austin Keys and Auburn’s room of Jack linebackers, which includes Vanderbilt transfer Elijah McAllister, Appalachian State transfer Jalen McLeod and Liberty transfer Stephen Sings.

The backend of Auburn’s defense is a different story.

With Jaylin Simpson returning at safety, the Tigers’ return their leader in interceptions from 2022. Simpson led the team with two interceptions last fall, while also tallying five pass breakups.

Auburn also returns its borderline-elite cornerback tandem in DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett. James grabbed and interception and recorded eight pass breakups last fall, while Pritchett tallied eight pass breakups and a forced fumble of his own.

Keionte Scott, Auburn’s star cornerback, is another guy who could have a major role in helping on the defensive end of the Tigers’ turnover battle. In 2022, Scott notched an interception, three pass breakups and a quarterback hurry.

All this is said to get to this final point: Freeze and his coaching staff have the pieces to fix the turnover battle that haunted Auburn last year. The jury is still out on how quickly and to what extent the issue will be fixed, but the pieces are certainly there.

And as Connelly noted in 2014, correcting that one issue can go a long way.