Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy is enjoying a comfortable lead in polling, and a wave of early endorsements from Republican officeholders nationwide, including in Alabama.

But with Trump facing 91 felony indictment counts in four separate criminal investigations, a looming question is emerging: Is it simply too early to make definitive endorsements?

For now, most of the Alabama GOP is sticking by their top choice more than 200 days out from the March 5, 2024, Alabama primary held on “Super Tuesday.”

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The wave of support stands in sharp contrast to eight years ago, when Trump did not get an endorsement from a member of the U.S. Senate until then-Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama backed him two days before the state’s primary.

Trump, ahead of the 2024 elections, has secured 74 endorsements from members of the U.S. House and 10 from U.S. Senators – including Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville.

“We’re at a point where we need to rally together,” said U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl, R-Mobile, who joined all six Republican members of Alabama’s U.S. House delegation and five state constitutional officers to endorse Trump’s candidacy ahead of the Aug. 4 GOP summer dinner in Montgomery. Trump was its keynote speaker.

“Trump has the strongest chance,” Carl said on Wednesday following a speech in Mobile. “He’s the strongest candidate out there. We know what he can do and what he probably will do. We all came together and fell behind him.”

U.S. Rep. Dale Strong, R-Huntsville, was among the first Alabama Republicans to endorse Trump – back in November 2022.

“I’ve made my commitment to Donald Trump,” Strong also said on Wednesday after speaking before the Huntsville-Madison County Chamber of Commerce at the Von Braun Center. “He’s doing everything that he told me he was going to do. He put conservatives on the Supreme Court, he lowered gas prices, he got us to energy independence. The list goes on. Lower inflation, lower interest rates. Look at what we’re dealing with now. Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, you’re paying more every time you go to the gas station or you go to the grocery store. I think the facts speak for themselves.”

What about DeSantis?

Carl said the pro-Trump endorsements were not meant to freeze out the other candidates from visiting the state ahead of the primary.

But Carl said he feels the other candidates “are really weak” at the early stages of the campaign, though he admits that could have a lot to do with Trump’s popularity among Republicans. The former president sits atop the polling, and websites like FiveThirtyEight.com has him up a whopping 38.7 percentage points over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is in second place.

Strong said he believes “it’s our responsibility” to host other presidential candidates when they visit Alabama but added that he will not be among the hosts.

Only one statewide constitutional officer has emerged to back a candidate who is not Trump. Auditor Andrew Sorrell, first elected to the post last fall, is endorsing DeSantis.

Sorrell said he anticipates DeSantis visiting Alabama. He said that Alabama is an “important state” in the GOP presidential primary, joining a list of 15 states that will host presidential primaries on Super Tuesday.

He said that DeSantis could win one of the early primary states, like Iowa where Trump finished second behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz during the 2016 primary and where he has butted heads with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Trump has criticized Reynolds for remaining neutral in the GOP presidential nomination race. He also opted not to attend any of the popular governor’s “fair side chats” during the Iowa State Fair.

Sorrell, a former state lawmaker from Muscle Shoals, said there is a lot at stake in Alabama, and that DeSantis could secure key delegates in the state during the primary.

According to state GOP rules, if DeSantis gets more than 20% of the vote and Trump finishes under 50%, then DeSantis will win delegates in Alabama. And those delegates, Sorrell said, could be crucial for the Florida governor’s quest to secure the nomination.

“Just because you don’t win the state, doesn’t mean you can’t walk away with delegates,” Sorrell said. “In politics, you have to be prepared for every possible scenario. That’s strategic campaigning.”

He added, “There is an eternity between now and when the people start voting. If DeSantis comes out strong in the first three to four states, you might see Alabama flip to DeSantis.”

General election worries

Sorrell also believes the GOP needs a “backup plan” if Trump is convicted before next year’s elections.

“Who knows what will happen with the Trump indictments?” he said. “Do I think they are politically motivated? Yes, I do. Nothing in politics happens by coincidence. But that does not mean he won’t be convicted … What if he does get convicted?”

Strong said the criminal indictments against Trump is what is making “him appeal more to the people of America.”

“Have you ever seen a president that has been gone after like this?” he said. “They know they’re trying to get him out of this race. We’ve never seen a former president attacked like this at this level. And I’ll promise you, there’s some other presidents that probably did worse than what he did.”

The emergence of the criminal indictments comes after Trump-backed candidates struggled during the 2022 midterm elections in the so-called “swing” states that he will need to win the general election.

Sorrell said he remains concerned about the general election, saying that the former president “drags candidates down on the ballot,” offering up a “problem for the Republican Party nationwide.”

While Trump is popular among GOP voters, he struggles in polling with independents and voters in swing states that he will need to appeal to if he is to win the general election. While 75% of Republicans say they will support him in November, 53% of Americans say they will “definitely not support” the ex-president during the general election, according to new polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Trump has been blamed for the GOP’s disappointing showing in the 2022 midterm elections. Candidates he endorsed in high-profile Senate contests within battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona lost. Democrats walked out of the midterms holding onto a slim majority in the upper chamber.

Sorrell said that DeSantis, who handily won re-election last year, is a proven political winner.

“Not only did DeSantis win by 19 points, but (Florida’s state legislature) has supermajorities in the State House and Senate,” he said. “They were winning dog catcher races in Florida. That’s the kind of candidate we need leading our ticket.”

Alabama dominance

DeSantis has yet to run in Alabama. Trump’s recent wins in the state are among some of the most dominating in state presidential history.

In fact, the margin of victory for Trump during the 2020 and 2016 general elections rivals the biggest back-to-back wins during a presidential contest in Alabama since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s dominance close to 80 years ago.

“If you look at our districts in Alabama, Robert Aderholt’s is 80-plus percent support for Trump,” Carl said, referring to the 2020 general election returns. “My district is 60-plus percent support for Trump.”

Regina Wagner, assistant professor of political science with the University of Alabama, said the wave of Trump endorsements by almost all of Alabama’s congressional delegation and five statewide officeholders illustrates “a sign of just how strong his hold on the Republican base still is.”

She does not believe the ex-president’s strength among Alabama Republican voters is “necessarily stronger than any other states.”

Soren Jordan, an assistant professor of political sciences at Auburn University, said he believes the fate of past politicians from Alabama – Sessions and Mo Brooks, who both fell out of favor with Trump – is likely why the Alabama GOP House members made the early endorsements.

“Many Alabama politicians … probably feel like their own personal success depends on staying in Trump’s good graces,” Jordan said. “House members stand for election every two years. There is no doubt they’re already thinking about how to sew up support.”

Brent Buchanan, president of international polling firm Cygnal based in Montgomery, said Trump is the “known brand” and that it’s a “safe thing for members of the congressional delegation” to endorse him.

“But, keep in mind, the presidential race is not over,” said Buchanan, who serves as a pollster for Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign. “Donald Trump himself was polling in low single digits at this point in the summer of 2015.”