More than 200 people are currently hospitalized in Alabama with COVID-19, the most virus patients the state has seen since March.

However, numbers are still far below even some of the mini-surges the state has seen throughout the end stages of the pandemic, and just fractions of what Alabama hospitals faced during the virus’ various peaks.

“The numbers are up,” said Dr. Donald Williamson, head of the Alabama Hospital Association. “If you go back to early July… we had about 60 to 65 in the hospital, 10 or 11 in the ICU. Yesterday, we had 230 in the hospital, and 23 in the ICU.”

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows as of the week ending August 5, the most recent week data was available, Alabama was averaging about 175 virus patients per day. And Williamson’s updated numbers show that figure remains on the rise.

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Based on Williamson’s numbers, Alabama has seen nearly a 300% increase in COVID hospitalizations since early July. But he was quick to note that this bump in hospitalizations was nothing like the surges the state has seen in the past.

“It’s not creating the sorts of disruption that we saw before. And certainly there’s no evidence that it’s more severe,” he said.

According to the CDC, Alabama saw 228 new hospital admissions with COVID the week of Aug. 5. That’s 4.7 new admissions per 100,000 residents, a figure that ranked third highest in the nation.

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Only Florida (7.8 admissions per 100,000) and Hawaii (9.5) ranked higher.

CDC data also shows Alabama is near the top of the list for the percent of both regular and ICU hospital beds that are filled by COVID patients, and the percent of emergency department visits that were diagnosed with COVID.

“Now, what does that mean?” Williamson said. “I think it’s real. I think we are seeing a bit of a wave. It’s probably due to a couple things.”

He said the new EG.5 variant is probably playing a role, along with waning immunity, both from natural immunity and vaccines. Alabama remains near the very bottom of the list for vaccinations, according to the CDC, with just 8.1% of people considered “up to date” on their vaccines. Only Mississippi and Texas had lower rates.

Williamson also the the weather could be playing a role. The extended heat wave that washed over Alabama likely forced people indoors more than is normal for summertime, he said, increasing close contact and transmission possibilities.

The new variant could be causing new infections and hospitalizations, but Williamson said it doesn’t appear to be more severe than previous variants.

“The variant doesn’t seem to be in any way more serious than previous variants,” he said. “Looking back over the past three or four days, we’ve not had any deaths over those days.”

He also said he expects COVID to potentially stick around, possibly with two seasons of increased transmission, one in the summer and one in the winter. He said the healthcare system’s strategy for fighting COVID going forward will probably look a lot like the current strategy for fighting the flu.

“I think our strategy going forward is going to be a lot like influenza,” he said. “We’re going to be encouraging people to get vaccinated against influenza. We’re going to be encouraging people to get vaccinated against COVID. And people over 65 especially, we’re going to be encouraging them to get vaccinated against RSV.”

But COVID presents some unique problems, even now.

“This virus mutates, I think, more efficiently than influenza does,” Williamson said. “So I think we’re always going to be a little bit behind the curve for picking our booster for COVID. We’re probably never going to get as good a match for COVID as we do for influenza.”

Still, he said he believes vaccines will help prevent serious illness, and he recommended people get the latest dingle dose booster when it comes out, and said people who are vulnerable consider getting the booster that’s currently available.

Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Or questions about Alabama that data may be able to answer? Email Ramsey Archibald at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.