Week 9 picks are here for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

Week 9 picks are here for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 13th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms. Joe is the reigning king of the picks, but we could only find a jester’s cap ‘n’ bells for him to wear.

Perhaps it is true, then, what William Shakespeare wrote in “King Lear.”

“Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard.

What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT

Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.

The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.

No one works harder than the Hero. Nobody. Abercrombie played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.

Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.

Before we get started, check out last week!

LAST WEEK

Joe: 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread

Pro: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread

Hero: 5-1 straight up, 4-2 against the spread

Notes: Trends are emerging. Everyone nailed UAB’s loss at WKU, LSU’s beat down of Ole Miss and Alabama’s get-right game against Mississippi State. Joe is kicking himself for picking against Bo Nix. Always remember that the Hero was high on Nix before anyone else.

OVERALL

Joe: 33-15 straight up, 24-23-1 against the spread

Pro: 32-16 straight up, 22-25-1 against the spread

Hero: 37-11 straight up, 23-24-1 against the spread

Notes: The Hero is on a roll and running away with the competition straight up. Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is all about picking against the spread, though, and Joe is back in the lead thanks in part to nailing Alabama three weeks in a row going into the Crimson Tide’s off week. On to the picks!

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud leads the country with 28 touchdown passes. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)AP

No.2 Ohio State (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten) at No.13 Penn State (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.

TV: Fox

Series: Ohio State leads 22-14.

Spread: OSU by 16.5.

Trendy: Ohio State has won five in a row in the series.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Ohio State’s defense is allowing an average of 239.9 yards per game. That puts the Buckeyes’ defense at No.2 in the country entering Week 9.

Joe says: Ohio State forced six turnovers last week against Iowa. When the Buckeyes get a chance to score, they almost always take advantage of it. Led by quarterback CJ Stroud, Ohio State is perfect in the red zone and 31 of its 36 scoring opportunities from 20 yards and closer have been for touchdowns. That’s why Ohio State has scored at least 45 points in every game since Week 2 of the season. Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford doesn’t complete passes at the same rate as Stroud (62 percent to 70), but Clifford actually has one fewer interception (three to four). Penn State rebounded well last week after its loss to Michigan, and this game is at Beaver Stadium. Penn State represents Ohio State’s toughest opponent so far this season, and the Nittany Lions are battle tested. I’ll roll the dice and take Penn State straight up. How else am I going to catch the Hero?

Joe’s pick: Penn State 36, Ohio State 34

Pro says: If you base Penn State’s chances on the last two games it could be a long afternoon. They beat Minnesota mainly because the Golden Gophers were without their starting QB. The week before, Michigan ran for 418 yards on new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s defense. Ohio State welcomed back star receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba last week from injury and their rock solid run defense has held six of seven opponents to under 124 rushing yards. If this were a White Out game I’d be considered a black out by the 4th quarter.

Pro’s pick: Ohio State 45, Penn State 21

Hero says: The Buckeyes are playing like the best team in college football right now and they have not been challenged since the opening win over Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions usually play Ohio State tough and may challenge the Buckeyes at times on Saturday but in Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff the Buckeyes should pull away in the second half.

Hero’s pick: Ohio State 38, Penn State 24

Billy Napier, Anthony Richardson

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson shouldn’t be taken lightly against rival Georgia. This is the first Florida-Georgia rivalry for new Florida coach Billy Napier, left. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhach)AP

Florida (4-3, 1-3 SEC) vs. No.1 Georgia (7-0, 4-1 SEC)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville, Fla.

TV: CBS

Series: Georgia leads 53-44-2.

Spread: Georgia by 22.5.

Trendy: Georgia has covered the spread in back-to-back weeks.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: This is the 100th meeting between these two fierce SEC East rivals. Of the 100 games, 90 have been played in Jacksonville.

Joe says: The formula for beating Georgia, theoretically, involves forcing Stetson Bennett III into making mistakes. Good luck. He has been phenomenal on third down, passing for 81.3 percent when Georgia is facing a third-down situation under 10 yards. Here’s the thing, though. Outside of Oregon to begin the season, has Georgia played a defense even remotely capable of beating a good team? Florida might be down, but the Gators have played better competition than Georgia and have remained competitive. Can UF pull the upset here? That’s a big ask, but if Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson gets outside of the pocket, then he can be dangerous against anyone.

Joe’s pick: Georgia 35, Florida 21

Pro says: Most experts are down on Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson because he’s only thrown seven touchdown passes this season. He has led the offense though to 29, 33 and 35 points against their top three opponents, Utah, Tennessee and LSU. Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett is fine, but I doubt he even makes an NFL roster next season. Georgia’s defense is solid but has only seven sacks this season and can’t be compared with last year’s stellar group. This is a classic rivalry game where the line is inflated and could go down to the wire.

Pro’s pick: Georgia 35, Florida 25

Hero says: After looking beatable for a few games, the Bulldogs have kicked it into gear the last two games and dominated their opponents on offense and defense. The Florida defense had a week off to recover from the beat down by LSU’s offense, but they still do not have enough depth to slow down the Georgia offense for 4 quarters. If Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson can keep the chains moving for the Florida offense and keep the Georgia offense off the field, then the Gators may keep this game interesting until late in the third quarter.

Hero’s pick: Georgia 38, Florida 17

Kentucky running back Christopher Rodriguez Jr. carries the football

Kentucky running back Christopher Rodriguez Jr. is back in action for the Wildcats’ big away game at Neyland Stadium.(AP Photo/Michael Clubb)

Kentucky (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at No.3 Tennessee (7-0, 3-0 SEC)

When: 6 p.m., Sat.

Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Series: Tennessee leads 82-26-9.

Spread: Tennessee by 12.5.

Trendy: Tennessee is 6-1 against the spread.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is ranked seventh nationally and second in the SEC in passing efficiency (173.3 rating).

Joe says: Hendon Hooker won’t be the only good transfer quarterback on the field in this game. Kentucky passer Will Levis has been injured, but he passed for 239 yards against Mississippi State last week. UK also rushed for 239 yards, and that’s a good sign of a healthy offense. Tennessee is a great team, but the Vols have flaws. The defense is ranked 11th in the SEC (420.6 yards per game). Meanwhile, Kentucky has the No.2-ranked scoring defense in the league (16.4 ppg) behind Georgia. This feels like a classic trap-game scenario for UT with Georgia on the horizon. Give me Big Blue in the SEC shocker of the season!

Joe’s pick: Kentucky 28, Tennessee 24

Pro says: I feel this game comes down to turnovers and time of possession. Kentucky, with 12 offensive turnovers, probably can’t afford to turn the ball over more than once if it hopes to compete against the most explosive offense in college football. Last year the Wildcats held the ball for 46 minutes in the nip-and-tuck 45-42 loss. With running back Chris Rodriguez back in the fold for Kentucky this game could be a lot tighter than most experts would predict. Tennessee might also be looking ahead to their game against undefeated Georgia next week.

Pro’s pick: Tennessee 38, Kentucky 35

Hero says: The Wildcats had the week off to prepare for Tennessee so it will be interesting to see if Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has developed a game plan to slow down the Vols offense. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis and the Wildcat offense should have some success throwing on the Volunteers defense but I just don’t see them matching Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker and the Vols offense in Knoxville.

Hero’s pick: Tennessee 40, Kentucky 27

Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins carries the football

Ole Miss freshman running back Quinshon Judkins leads the SEC with 12 rushing touchdowns.(Photo by Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No.15 Ole Miss (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at Texas A&M (3-4, 1-3 SEC)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

TV: SEC Network

Series: Texas A&M leads 9-2.

Spread: Ole Miss by 2.5.

Trendy: Texas A&M has lost three in a row.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M is ranked 13th in the SEC in total offense, averaging 342.7 yards per game. Vanderbilt is last with 341 yards per game.

Joe says: This one feels like a dogfight. Ole Miss is a little banged up and Texas A&M only plays in ugly games these days. Last week, South Carolina’s offense was not very good, but the Gamecocks still managed to best Texas A&M 30-24. South Carolina had two fumbles and only managed 13 first downs. The difference in the game was a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Xavier Legette to begin the game. The Gamecocks are improving, but it’s still ranked 10th in the league. Ole Miss, ranked third, is coming off the loss to LSU where everything fell apart in the second half. Still, I think Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin will make the proper adjustments to compensate for some injuries. Yes, I think Ole Miss is a little overrated, but the wheels appear to be falling off the wagon in College Station.

Joe’s pick: Ole Miss 21, Texas A&M 18

Pro says: The matchup of the third-ranked run offense, averaging 251.8 yards per game of Ole Miss, against the 102nd-ranked run defense of Texas A&M, looks juicy. If that’s not enough, then Jimbo Fisher suspended three players this week plus he lost three of his starting offensive linemen last week due to injury. Ole Miss ran into red hot quarterback Jayden Daniels of LSU. I’ll bet on a rebound by Lane Kiffin’s bunch.

Pro’s pick: Ole Miss 30, Texas A&M 20

Hero says: Ole Miss looked like the better team in the 1st half against LSU last Saturday but faded big time in the 2nd half of a disappointing loss. Things just keep getting worse this season for A&M with more injuries last Saturday during their loss to South Carolina and with more suspensions this week. The Aggies certainly have the talent to get things back on track this weekend against the Rebels and maybe Lane Kiffin’s comments about A&M exceeding the salary cap on last year’s recruiting class will ignite the coaches and players. I still have more faith in Coach Kiffin and the Rebels to bounce back from last week and make things worse in College Station.

Hero’s pick: Ole Miss 34, Texas A&M 17

Alabama State Myles Crawley

Alabama State quarterback Myles Crawley threw for 270 yards in the Hornets victory against Mississippi Valley State. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)AP

Alabama A&M (3-4, 3-1 SWAC) vs. Alabama State (4-3, 2-2 SWAC)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Legion Field, Birmingham, Ala.

TV: ESPN+

Parade: 8 a.m. Sat., downtown Birmingham

Parade TV: Fox 6 in Birmingham, Gray affiliates Montgomery/Huntsville

Series: Alabama A&M leads 44-39-3.

Spread: A&M by 2.

Trendy: A&M has won four in a row in the series.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama A&M’s last two opponents are a combined 0-8 (Grambling and Arkansas-Pine Bluff) in conference play.

Joe says: This year’s Magic City Classic is going to be a battle. The buzz leading into the 81st Classic continues to be about the post-game dust up between Alabama State coach Eddie Robinson Jr. and Jackson State coach Deion Sanders. I like that State’s coach is establishing a team culture around toughness. That’s how A&M coach Connell Maynor has built success in Huntsville. The Bulldogs’ offense features running back Donovan Eaglin, and the Michigan State transfer is tough to bring down. I hate that A&M receiver Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim is struggling this season, but A&M remains deep at receiver. State quarterback Myles Crawley has played admirably after Hornets original starter Dematrius Davis (Auburn transfer) injured his shoulder against Jackson State, but mistakes remain a concern for me. Special teams favor A&M and that could be the difference here. The Bulldogs keep the streak alive.

Joe’s pick: Alabama A&M 31, Alabama State 28

Pro says: The Bulldogs have won five straight in the series but seem to have a leaky defense, allowing 27 or more points in all seven games this season. The Hornets have held four opponents to 13 points or less and have the same color scheme in their uniform as my high school. Wrong team favored!

Pro’s pick: Alabama State 20, Alabama A&M 17

Hero says: It should be another great Magic City Classic game at Legion Field on Saturday afternoon between these two SWAC rivals. The A&M Bulldogs started the season with a four-game losing streak, but have bounced back to win the last three games and are 3-1 in the SWAC East. State has a winning season at 4-3, but is a game below A&M in the SWAC East at 2-2. This game could easily go either way, but I like the Bulldogs to continue their winning streak and defeat the Hornets in the Classic for the fifth year in a row.

Hero’s pick: Alabama A&M 31, Alabama State 24

Robby Ashford Tiger Walk

Auburn quarterback Robby Ashford has improved each week as the Tigers’ starter. Auburn had an extra week to prepare for its home game against Arkansas. (Photo by Zach Bland/AU Athletics)Zach Bland/AU Athletics

Arkansas (4-3, 1-3 SEC) at Auburn (3-4, 1-3 SEC)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.

TV: SEC Network

Series: Auburn leads 19-11-1.

Spread: Arkansas by 4.

Trendy: Joe is 1-5 with Auburn against the spread.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Auburn has won eight of the last nine in the series.

Joe says: It’s a battle for the bottom of the SEC West, and I’ll be at JHS to witness all the glory first hand. Arkansas has lost three in a row against SEC opponents and so has Auburn. I’m expecting a lot of offense in this one. Quarterback Robby Ashford is improving for Auburn, and the Tigers’ running game should be fresh after the off week. Arkansas was off last week, too, and is coming off its 52-35 victory against BYU. Auburn has always had better players than Arkansas, and I still think the Tigers have enough to pull the upset at home.

Joe’s pick: Auburn 45, Arkansas 42

Pro says: The Razorback pass defense stinks, allowing 315 yards per game. The Tigers passing game might be one of their worst since the invention of the forward pass, completing just 51.8 percent of their passes with just five touchdowns and an unacceptable 10 interceptions. With quarterback KJ Jefferson back from injury and running back Rocket Sanders an eye-popping 870 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, I’ll go with the team with more weapons and a more sound and secure coaching staff.

Pro’s pick: Arkansas 34, Auburn 28

Hero says: Both teams had a much-needed bye week last week. The Hogs stopped the bleeding two weeks ago with an offensive onslaught against BYU led by dual threat quarterback KJ Jefferson. The Tigers fought hard in Oxford two weeks ago but could not stop the Rebels run game. It will be very difficult for Auburn’s defense to slow down the balanced Arkansas attack so the Tigers primary hope to win this game is for their offense to outscore Arkansas. Even though I think Auburn’s offense led by quarterback Robby Ashford and Tank Bigsby will have some success against a Razorback defense giving up 32 points per game, the Hogs should be able to run the ball when needed to earn a hard-fought victory on the Plains.

Hero’s pick: Arkansas 34, Auburn 27