Millions of Social Security recipients could see a 3% increase in 2024′s cost-of-living-adjustment, according to the latest estimates from The Senior Citizens League.

The projection comes from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, which grew 2.3% over the year. The actual COLA is determined using third-quarter CPI-W data – July, August and September – so the percentage of increase is almost certain to change.

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CPI-W is determined by looking at inflation rates for a three-month period, adding those together and averaging them. Those figures are then compared with the third quarter average from one year ago. The percentage difference between the two is the amount of the COLA, which would be payable for the check received in January 2024, the TSCL reported.

It’s highly unlikely, however, that 2024′s COLA will reach the 8.7% recipients saw in 2023, a historic boost that came on the heels of record-high inflation. 2022′s increase was 5.9%.

A 3% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit of $1,787 by a little more than $53.60. Part of that will be chipped away, however, by increases in Medicare Part B premiums. Part B premiums are automatically deducted from most beneficiaries’ Social Security benefit and, in many years, cost increases can take most, or even all, the COLA leaving little else to cover other rising prices.

Some 67 million Americans per month collect Social Security benefits, totaling more than $1 trillion in benefits paid during the year. Social Security benefits represent about 30% of income for Americans ages 65 and older, the Social Security Administration said.