Welcome to Alabama’s 2022 football open week. You made it.

The Crimson Tide will hit the pause button on Saturday competition after eight hard-to-predict weeks of action.

From the preseason No. 1 ranking (and 54 of 63 first-place votes) to the No. 6 slot in late October, it’s fair to say this hasn’t been quite the anticipated revenge tour. Two Alabama wins came down to the final seconds while the only loss came when a knuckleball 40-yard field goal snuck over the upright at Tennessee.

Even a 49-26 win at Arkansas had a few harrowing moments when the Razorbacks scored 23 straight points.

There were the anticipate blowouts of Utah State (55-0), UL-Monroe (63-7) and Vanderbilt (55-3) tucked in with the 20-19 win at Texas to round out the first four games. Texas A&M had a pass to win it on the final snap that fell incomplete in a 24-20 Tide win a week before the 52-49 trip to the upside down in Knoxville.

A week later, the Crimson Tide offense that rolled up 569 yards at Tennessee managed just 290 in a 30-6 win over Mississippi State. One week it’s a defensive meltdown, the next it’s a shutout until the final second of Saturday’s win over the Bulldogs.

So the fact we tried to make specific Sept. 1 predictions about this group is almost laughable. As we reach the two-thirds mark of the 2022 season, let’s take a look back at AL.com beat reporter projections versus the reality seen to date.

The strength of this team will be …

Mike Rodak: Passing game

Michael Casagrande: Defensive pass rush

Reality: It feels like when opponents are game planning for Alabama, they fear the Tide’s pass rush the most. Will Anderson’s six sacks are shy of the nation’s leaders at 7.5, but his eight quarterback hurries against Texas A&M were indicative of how he can affect an offense even without recording sacks. Overall, Alabama has more sacks (23) through eight games this season than its 22 at the same point last season. As for the passing game, Alabama ranks 34th in yards per game, with Jalen Milroe’s game-and-a-half under center helping pull that average down. The lack of a home-run hitter among the receivers changed the math from a group led by Jameson Williams last year.

The weakness of this team will be …

Rodak: Lack of a shutdown cornerback

Casagrande: Cornerback

Reality: As expected, it has been an uneven season for Alabama’s cornerbacks. Nick Saban recently praised Kool-Aid McKinstry’s consistency but the sophomore still has room to grow into a true shutdown cornerback. Terrion Arnold started opposite McKinstry until Saturday’s game against Mississippi State, when preseason All-American Eli Ricks earned the nod from Saban after almost two months watching from the sideline. And when Tennessee’s passing game torched the Tide in Week 7, it was more about the Vol scheme working mismatches with safeties than traditional cornerback busts. But the real weakness for Alabama this season, at cornerback and across the roster, has been penalties. The Tide’s 69 penalties are the second-most among the 131 FBS teams, less than only Bowling Green’s 72.

Most irreplaceable player

Rodak: Bryce Young

Casagrande: Bryce Young

Reality: Life without its Heisman Trophy-winner became reality for Alabama in early October, when Young injured his shoulder early at Arkansas and then missed the following game against Texas A&M. Backup Jalen Milroe showed his athletic ability with a long run to help hold off the Razorbacks, but his deficiencies as a passer and three turnovers against the Aggies were a clear sign that Alabama would be in trouble if it needed to turn to Milroe for a longer stretch. Young worked to return the following week against Tennessee and revived the passing game with 455 yards.

Off-the-radar players?

Rodak: Terrion Arnold, Chris Braswell

Casagrande: Jaheim Oatis, Aaron Anderson, Tyler Harrell

Reality: The three defensive players – Arnold, Braswell and Oatis – have all contributed, with Arnold starting at cornerback until the Tide’s most recent game. The massive Oatis has earned immediate playing time in the middle of the defensive line while Braswell, a five-star recruit three years ago, has seen his most extensive playing time – including the “Cheetah” package of three defensive ends that Alabama employed to success against Texas A&M. The misses on these predictions have been the two receivers, the freshman Anderson and fifth-year transfer Harrell, who both dealt with injuries in fall camp. The speedy Harrell made his long-awaited debut in the closing minutes of Saturday’s game, catching a pass from Milroe.

Which Alabama player will get the most Heisman votes?

Rodak: Bryce Young

Casagrande: Will Anderson

Reality: This is an open question as six weeks remain until Heisman votes are due, but it will take a late-season comeback for any Alabama player to win the Heisman as Ohio State’s CJ Stroud and Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker are the two current betting favorites. Young is not out of range to make a run at a repeat, but his time missed to injury will hurt his overall statistics. There was offseason momentum for Anderson to be included in the Heisman race but any realistic candidacy would need to include the sizzle of eye-popping sack numbers, and those have yet to come for the junior.

Most dangerous game?

Rodak: Ole Miss

Casagrande: Tennessee

Reality: One of us nailed it, with the Vols’ early-season success snowballing into a wild afternoon in Knoxville that lived up to the hype. But danger still lurks in November for the Tide with back-to-back trips to Baton Rouge and Oxford, so the Ole Miss prediction was not far-fetched. Coming off a 10-win season, the Rebels started 7-0, reached a No. 7 ranking and led LSU early in Saturday’s game, 17-3. Things collapsed after that for Lane Kiffin’s team, and now LSU could slide into the SEC West driver’s seat with a win over Alabama.

The sneaky interesting opponent?

Rodak: LSU

Casagrande: Arkansas

Reality: The third quarter of the Arkansas game was interesting when the Razorbacks made a run after Young’s injury, but overall Arkansas (4-3, 1-3) has been the SEC’s most disappointing team not named Texas A&M. LSU lost early to Florida State and then was smoked in Tiger Stadium by Tennessee, but the Tigers’ win over Ole Miss sets the stage for a consequential game against Alabama when both teams return from an open date. Brian Kelly would make some earlier-than-expected noise in the SEC with a win.

Most overrated opponent?

Rodak: Texas A&M

Casagrande: Texas

Reality: The pair of preseason top-25 teams have both been overrated, but it is hard to understate how much the Aggies have fallen short of expectations given their recruiting success and salary paid to Jimbo Fisher. The early-season loss to Appalachian State in Kyle Field was embarrassing for the program, but the true damage has been done by three losses in SEC play – including a closer-than-anticipated defeat in Tuscaloosa. Texas also had a narrow loss to Alabama and has played respectably this season, but will enter November with three losses and ranked opponents in Kansas State and TCU looming.

Who is the best player Alabama will face this year?

Rodak: Bijan Robinson

Casagrande: Hendon Hooker

Reality: Robinson (57 yards on 21 carries) was mostly bottled up by Alabama, although he is still among the nation’s best running backs and could be the first one chosen in the NFL draft next April. Hooker is a better answer to this question. The Vols QB put himself in the center of the Heisman Trophy conversation by throwing five touchdowns to topple Alabama.

Most receiving yards?

Rodak: Jermaine Burton

Casagrande: Traeshon Holden

Reality: Through eight games, Alabama’s leading receiver is Ja’Corey Brooks with 376 yards, followed by Burton (306). Holden is fifth with 266. Bryce Young has spread the ball around to a core group of six receivers this season along with running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Cameron Latu. While there is some balance to the passing game, that could also be the product of not having a game-wrecking wide receiver who needs to stay on the field and can beat defenses even when they are scheming to stop him. Consider that through eight games in 2020, DeVonta Smith had 1,074 yards and two others – Jaylen Waddle and John Metchie – topped 500. Last season, Metchie reached 601 by eight games and Jameson Williams had 710. When both went down with injuries late in the season, Alabama did not have a receiver that could take over a game and that cost the Tide. That risk remains this season, despite the initial promise of Alabama’s incoming transfers and young talent at the position.

Most rushing yards?

Rodak: Jahmyr Gibbs

Casagrande: Jahmyr Gibbs

Reality: Neither of us stumbled on what was perhaps the easiest preseason question. The Georgia Tech transfer has lived up to his billing as an electric play-maker in both the running and passing game, and he now tops 1,000 combined yards from scrimmage while accounting for nine touchdowns. Alabama ranks third in the country in averaging 6.02 yards per carry, although that number is distorted by some long runs by Gibbs and others. Nick Saban has spoken about being a “big-little” rushing offense that needs more consistency on a rush-to-rush basis.