Kirk Herbstreit admits it is early, but he is rolling with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

You might be wondering what the ESPN GameDay analyst is thinking. Nick Saban’s team is coming off a disappointing season. It lost Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Bryce Young. Saban is replacing both coordinators. It doesn’t add up.

According to Herbstreit, that is exactly why he is picking Alabama.

“Whenever that happens in Tuscaloosa,” Herbstreit said of coaching changes, personnel losses and unforeseen losses, “If you’re going to Vegas, that would be a team I would not want to question,” he told On3. “Whenever they have a few losses. Or whenever they don’t quite chase their goals the previous year or whenever they have a new this or a new that … it’s like ‘Oh boy, Nick Saban’s in trouble.’

“I’m telling you he has the same energy he’s had in 2009 when he won his first title against Texas. He has great players like he had in ‘09, maybe better. He has a team that’s going to be upset with a chip on their shoulder.

“As we sit here on May 31, it’s hard for me not to lean toward Alabama in the SEC.”

The Tide went undefeated in ‘09, beating Texas 37-21.

The season came after a disappointing finish to the 2008 season when Alabama lost to Utah 37-13 in the Sugar Bowl to end the season with back-to-back losses in the SEC title game and Sugar Bowl before finishing 12-2.

Mark Heim is a reporter for The Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Mark_Heim. He can be heard on “The Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5 FM in Mobile or on the free Sound of Music App from 6 to 9 a.m. daily.