Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero: Picks for ‘Battle for the Belt,’ Alabama, UAB and Bo Nix’s big test
Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 13th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms. Joe is the reigning king of the picks, but we could only find a jester’s cap ‘n’ bells for him to wear.
Perhaps it is true, then, what William Shakespeare wrote in “King Lear.”
“Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard.
What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than the Hero. Nobody. Abercrombie played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
Before we get started, check out last week!
LAST WEEK
Joe: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Pro: 2-4 straight up, 1-5 against the spread
Hero: 4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Notes: Joe’s hunch about Alabama kicker Will Reichard was spot on, unfortunately. Picking Tennessee gave Joe the win for the week, but he also got a little lucky with USC. Pro couldn’t catch a break, but everyone missed on Kentucky’s victory against Mississippi State and Auburn’s cover in Oxford.
OVERALL
Joe: 29-13 straight up, 20-21-1 against the spread
Pro: 28-14 straight up, 19-22-1 against the spread
Hero: 32-10 straight up, 19-22-1 against the spread
Notes: Everyone’s under water for the first time this season. Maybe SEC Pirate Mike Leach will throw the guys a few life preservers, and also some good sense. What’s a Pirate’s favorite letter? You thought it would be “R,” but it’s actually the “C.” On to the picks!
Troy (5-2, 3-1 Sun Belt) at South Alabama (5-1, 2-0 Sun Belt)
When: 6:30 p.m., Thurs.
Where: Hancock Stadium, Mobile
TV: ESPNU
Series: Troy leads 7-3.
Spread: USA by 3.
Trendy: South Alabama is 0-2 against the spread to begin conference play after covering in four straight games to begin the season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Troy has held its last five opponents to 85.5 yards per game (2.57 yards per carry).
Joe says: The national stage is here for a great Fun Belt rivalry game. Both of these teams are excellent this season, and playing on short rest (Alert: This game is on Thursday night!) will ensure an element of the unexpected. I’m counting the Jags’ test against ULM as a quality victory. The Warhawks are much improved under coach Terry Bowden, but South had a whopping 615 yards of total offense. Troy isn’t getting enough credit for having a great season, though. The Trojans might have the best defense in the Sun Belt, and their edge rushers have the ability to disrupt South quarterback Carter Bradley. Can Troy keep up with South, though? That’s the big question after injuries on Saturday to quarterback Gunnar Watson and receiver Tez Johnson. They’re available to play, but might not be at 100 percent.
Joe’s pick: South Alabama 35, Troy 28
Pro says: The Battle for the Belt should be one of the most underrated games in college football this season. Both teams are much improved and a combined 7-3 against the spread against FBS opponents. South Alabama quarterback Carter Bradley seems to be a little more dynamic than Troy quarterback Gunner Watson, accounting for 15 touchdowns to Watson’s eight. Home field is also a plus.
Pro’s pick: South Alabama 27, Troy 20
Hero says: The Trojans visit Mobile on Thursday night for a huge Sun Belt West showdown against USA. The Jaguars have had some close calls the last few games, but their only defeat remains the loss to UCLA on the last-play field goal by the Bruins. Troy’s only losses were to Ole Miss and App State on a successful Hail Mary play by the Mountaineers. Both teams feature strong defenses, but South Alabama has the more effective offense led by senior quarterback Carter Bradley. I favor South Alabama to pull off a hard-fought victory before the home crowd in Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Hero’s pick: South Alabama 24, Troy 17
UAB (4-2 2-1 CUSA) at Western Kentucky (4-3, 2-2 CUSA)
When: 7 p.m., Fri.
Where: L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, Ky.
TV: CBSSN
Series: Tied 4-4.
Spread: WKU by 2.5.
Trendy: Joe is 1-2 against the spread with UAB this season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UAB running back DeWayne McBride is the national leader in rushing yards per game (155.6). He has 778 total rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.
Joe says: Western Kentucky is going big for its game against UAB. The school announced a “Black Out” to go along with all-black jerseys, but WKU has also hired Shaquille O’Neal to DJ a party on campus before the game. DJ Diesel only plays the hits. As for hitting during the game, this one will come down to how well WKU can contain UAB rushing leader DeWayne McBride. He’s a force, and his presence on the field can open up passing lanes for receiver Trae Shropshire. Can UAB avoid mistakes on the road, though? I’ll take the Hilltoppers, which have played tough this season against quality opponents.
Joe’s pick: Western Kentucky 33, UAB 28
Pro says: The Hilltoppers have been a cash cow since the beginning of last year, winning 15 of their last 21 games against the spread. UAB seems to dominate time of possession and yardage, but has trouble pulling away from opponents due to their run-heavy offense. I just feel their strong pass defense matches up with WKU’s strong passing offense.
Pro’s pick: Western Kentucky 27, UAB 26
Hero says: This is a battle to keep CUSA championship dreams alive on Friday night in Bowling Green, Kentucky. UAB has bounced back at home in their last two games after the disappointing loss at Rice. Former Western Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe led the FBS in passing yards last season and is now throwing touchdown passes for the New England Patriots. New WKU quarterback Austin Reed is not leading the FBS in passing but he is fourth and has the Hilltoppers’ offense scoring 40 points per game. UAB’s offense is more run oriented but also effective in generating 35 points per game. The Hilltoppers will be tough to beat at home.
Hero’s pick: Western Kentucky 34, UAB 24
No.14 Syracuse (6-0, 3-0 ACC) at No.5 Clemson (7-0, 5-0 ACC)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, S.C.
TV: ABC
Series: Clemson leads 8-2.
Spread: Clemson by 13.5.
Trendy: Syracuse is 5-1 against the spread.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Orangemen are 6-0 for the first time since 1987.
Joe says: The last time an undefeated Syracuse played against an undefeated opponent this late in the season was 1959. The opponent was Penn State and ‘Cuse went on to go 11-0 and win the national championship. Is Syracuse legit? Yes. The win last week against N.C. State proved that. The Orange held the Wolfpack to under 300 yards of total offense, and I’ve always liked Syracuse quarterback Garrett Schrader, who began his career at Mississippi State. He’ll keep this one closer than expected, but Clemson has won 37 games in a row against ACC opponents at Memorial Stadium. Make it 38.
Joe’s pick: Clemson 35, Syracuse 24
Pro says: The quarterback and offensive-line play for Clemson have improved. Many experts thought the Tigers could be unbeaten, but no one expected Syracuse to be undefeated at this point in the season. ‘Cuse quarterback Garrett Shrader has 12 touchdown passes so far and only three interceptions. Running back Sean Tucker has rushed for 644 yards and wide receiver Oronde Gadsen II has created a balanced attack with 31 catches for 307 yards and five touchdowns. The defense has elevated their play to No.8 in the country in total defense, allowing just 268 yards per game. To the wire!
Pro’s pick: Clemson 30, Syracuse 23
Hero says: Dabo again has Clemson in the playoff hunt while Syracuse is one of the surprises this year starting out 6-0. This is the first game for Syracuse on the road since an early season trip to Connecticut. I think the Orange will find out that playing Clemson on the road will be a little more challenging than UConn. Tiger quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is looking much more confident this year and it shows in his performance (17 TDs, 2 INTs) while the Clemson defense is still solid. Syracuse is a much-improved team this year, but I think their winning streak will end this Saturday.
Hero’s pick: Clemson 34, Syracuse 17
No.9 UCLA (6-0, 3-0 Pac-12) at No.10 Oregon (5-1, 3-0 Pac-12)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.
TV: Fox
Series: UCLA leads 39-31-3.
Spread: Oregon by 6.
Trendy: UCLA’s games against FBS opponents have all gone over the points total, 5-0. The over/under against Oregon is 69.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Bo Nix has 12 touchdown passes through seven games, and had 11 all of last season with Auburn.
Joe says: He needed a change of scenery and I’m happy for him. There will be people who say Nix never beat Georgia, but, honestly, who does anymore? One of the things that really stood out to me when I saw Nix this season was the strength in his legs. He dedicated himself to rehab after breaking his leg. Still, I think Oregon is a little overrated. This is Nix’s first real test since the season opener against Georgia. UCLA actually has a better resume than Oregon at this point in the season. The Bruins led Utah by 18 points in the fourth quarter. Give me UCLA here to pull the upset. The L.A. boys have had two weeks to prepare for this game, and Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is an emerging star.
Joe’s pick: UCLA 45, Oregon 42
Pro says: Outside of the SEC, Big Ten and Clemson, the Bruins appear to be the only team still alive to make the College Football Playoff. As good as Ducks quarterback Bo Nix has been passing (12 touchdowns and 70.4 completion percent), UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been even more dynamic and accurate. He has 15 touchdown passes and has completed 74.8 percent of his throws. Oregon’s defense seems to be the worst of the four units on the field, ranked 85th in scoring, and is due to get scorched by a talented offense like UCLA. Wrong team favored!
Pro’s pick: UCLA 42, Oregon 38
Hero says: Both teams had a week off to prepare for this huge Pac-12 showdown. The Ducks have recovered from the season-opening beatdown by Georgia, and Auburn transfer quarterback Bo Nix seems to have settled into the Oregon offense, leading it to 42 points per game. This is Chip Kelly’s best team at UCLA led by an effective offense averaging 41.5 points per game. Neither team has displayed great defense this year and that is why the over/under is sitting at 70. I say go with the over, and Oregon to cover at home in Eugene.
Hero’s pick: Oregon 45, UCLA 38
No.7 Ole Miss (7-0, 3-0 SEC) at LSU (5-2, 3-1 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge
TV: CBS
Series: LSU leads 64-41-4.
Spread: EVEN.
Trendy: Joe is 0-2 against the spread with LSU this season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: LSU has used five different offensive line combinations through seven games.
Joe says: LSU is very much still a work in progress during coach Brian Kelly’s first season, but the Tigers are showing signs of a team poised for disruption. The Tigers’ lone loss in conference play was against Tennessee and the victory against Mississippi State looks more impressive now than it did in Week 3. Quarterback Jayden Daniels averaged 15.2 yards per completion in last week’s victory against Florida. Ole Miss piled up the yards against Auburn, but Auburn is struggling this season. The Tigers quarterbacks only completed eight passes against Ole Miss. It’s going to be a wild one, but I’ll take LSU at home. Tigers have better depth and skill players.
Joe’s pick: LSU 39, Ole Miss 36
Pro says: The Ole Miss defense seems to be showing major cracks in their last two games, allowing 28 points to Vanderbilt and 34 to Auburn. Both offenses are having tough years. Even in its game against Kentucky, Ole Miss might have given up 30-plus points if the Wildcats didn’t short circuit in the red zone and on special teams. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffen even tried an onside kick in the third quarter up a score just to try to keep his defense off the field. LSU is gaining confidence and should dominate here.
Pro’s pick: LSU 35, Mississippi 27
Hero says: The Rebels visit Baton Rouge in a huge SEC West game. Both teams had solid wins last week led by their offenses. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels seems to have settled into Brian Kelly’s offense and is making plays with his arms and legs and protecting the football with only 1 Interception. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has also done a great job leading Lane Kiffin’s offense, but he has thrown six interceptions. This game should be decided by who plays the best defense and turnovers. I lean towards the Tigers giving the Rebels their first loss of the season.
Hero’s pick: LSU 34, Ole Miss 31
No.24 Mississippi State (5-2, 2-2 SEC) at No.6 Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 84-18-3.
Spread: Alabama by 21.
Trendy: Mississippi State hasn’t scored in double figures in Tuscaloosa since 2014 (Alabama 25, Mississippi State 20).
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes has four interceptions in his last three games, including two returned for touchdowns. The fifth pick-six of his career came last week against Kentucky, and tied the SEC record.
Joe says: Are we done dissecting Alabama’s loss to Tennessee, or do we need to postpone this game against Mississippi State to take a closer look? Tennessee is a great team, and Alabama struggled on the road at times in a hostile environment. Tennessee made its field goal, and Alabama didn’t. The penalties are a concern, but to me that’s not a sign of Alabama backsliding into mediocrity. So, no, I’m not ready to declare the dynasty dead. Alabama has won 14 in a row against Mississippi State, and the Pirate’s Air Raid offense has never been able to sustain drives against Alabama. Tennessee took some big shots downfield, but Alabama will be ready for the short stuff. Bryce Young should pile on the points just like last season in Starkville. Alabama won 49-9. State quarterback Will Rogers had no chance.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 45, Mississippi State 13
Pro says: Practice this week for the Crimson Tide must have been brutal. I don’t think this is one of its best rosters, but with Bryce Young firing on all cylinders (last throwing for 455 yards) the offense is dynamic. I expect the defense to rebound at least for a week. Alabama has also won 14 straight over the Bulldogs, and I don’t expect a Mississippi State offense that throws early and often but almost always underneath to do much damage.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 45, Mississippi State 18
Hero says: Both teams are coming off tough road losses to SEC East teams. Alabama’s defense gave up the most points in the Saban era last week, but they have shut down the Mike Leach Air Raid offense the last two seasons. The Alabama offense returned to form last week with Bryce Young at quarterback and should continue to score in the 40s if the offensive line protects Bryce and opens some holes for running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The Bulldogs can pull the upset in Tuscaloosa if State quarterback Will Rogers continues to make the Tide pay for pass coverage issues and an improved defense forces several turnovers by the Alabama offense. Given his track record, I believe Coach Saban will make some adjustments on defense to slow down the Bulldogs’ offense and the Tide offense should generate enough big plays to keep the Alabama faithful happy on homecoming.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 41, Mississippi State 18