Alabama bowl projections: Will the Tide miss the playoff again?

Alabama bowl projections: Will the Tide miss the playoff again?

Spring practice is over, the transfer portal window is closed and talkin’ season is around the corner.

SEC media days begin nine weeks from Monday in Nashville, ramping up discussion about the 2023 college football season. That is when the SEC’s preseason poll will be released, and the Associated Press and coaches preseason polls will follow a few weeks later.

If major media outlets’ post-spring power rankings are any indication, Alabama will not be viewed as the favorite in the SEC and might not crack the preseason top five nationally. That would be an unusual position for the Tide, which has been in the top three of every preseason AP poll since 2010. Alabama was No. 5 in 2009, and began 2008 as No. 24 in Nick Saban’s second season.

But the loss of Bryce Young — and eight defensive starters, including Will Anderson — to the NFL draft without a clear answer at quarterback has cast doubt on where Alabama will finish in 2023.

That has been reflected in early projections for 2023-24 bowl games.

247 Sports predicted earlier this month that Alabama would miss the playoff for a consecutive season. The outlet projected Georgia and Michigan would meet in the Sugar Bowl, one of two CFP semifinals this season, and Ohio State and Texas would meet in the Rose Bowl for the other semifinal. That left Alabama in the Peach Bowl against Tulane in what would be another non-playoff New Year’s Six bowl appearance for the Tide after last season’s Sugar Bowl against Kansas State.

On Monday, Action Network’s Brett McMurphy released his bowl projections. Georgia and Washington were picked for the Sugar Bowl, with Michigan and Florida State slotted into the Rose Bowl. McMurphy left Alabama out of the playoff field and predicted the Tide would face Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

But in early May, CollegeFootballNews.com projected Alabama would return to the playoff. The outlet predicted the Tide would face Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, with Georgia and Texas meeting in the Sugar Bowl.

Alabama and Texas will play Sept. 10 in Bryant-Denny Stadium in a game that could shape the eventual playoff field. On3 Sports referred to the game as one of its “September playoff games,” although conceivably the loser could still earn a spot in the playoff by winning all of its remaining games, including its conference championship. Alabama is an early 7.5-point favorite over the Longhorns on DraftKings, according to TheLines.com.

If Alabama misses the playoff again in 2022, it would mark the third time in five seasons the Tide would be left out of the field after making the first five playoffs from 2014-18. It would also mean Alabama would have one national championship (2020) in a span of six seasons (2018-23) after winning three of the previous six.

But after this upcoming season, the path will widen for teams to qualify for the playoff and to win a national title when the CFP expands to 12 teams beginning with the 2024 season.

Mike Rodak is an Alabama beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @mikerodak.