Alabama’s list of largest counties is poised for a shakeup near the top.

Madison County, home to Huntsville and long the third most populous county in the the state, is on pace to pass Mobile County as soon as this year. In fact, it may have already happened.

New population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau show Madison County added a whopping 6,972 people between July 1, 2021 and July 1, 2022. That was the second most new people added by any county in the state, just behind Baldwin County, home to Alabama’s booming beaches.

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Meanwhile, Mobile County – just across the Bay from Baldwin – lost 1,606 people during the same one-year span. Both of those new federal estimates continue long-running population trends. Madison has been experiencing an extended growth spurt for more than a decade, while Mobile has been losing people, especially in the last several years.

As of July of 2022, the date of the latest estimates from the Census, Madison County had reached 403,565 people, while Mobile County had fallen to 411,411 people. If both counties keep the same pace of growth from 2022 to 2023, Madison will pass Mobile this year.

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By this July, it’s likely that Madison will be Alabama’s second most populous county, although we won’t know for sure until 2023 population estimates are released around this time next year.

Madison County has long been projected to pass Mobile eventually, but no one predicted just how fast the change would take place. In 2015, experts at the University of Alabama’s Center for Business and Economic Research predicted the switch would happen by 2035.

Jefferson County – though shrinking – is still far and away the most populous county in the state, and that’s not going to change any time soon. Baldwin County, now the fourth largest county in Alabama, is growing even faster than Madison, but it will be a long time before it can move any farther up the list.

Do you have an idea for a data story about Alabama? Or questions about Alabama that data may be able to answer? Email Ramsey Archibald at [email protected], and follow him on Twitter @RamseyArchibald. Read more Alabama data stories here.