Where Nate Oats says San Diego State ‘has an advantage on us’ in Sweet 16
Nate Oats is one of many subscribers to the popular college basketball analytics website KenPom.com, and his research of upcoming opponents includes it.
One number in particular stood out to Oats when he started digging into San Diego State, which meets Alabama in the Sweet 16 on Friday night in Louisville.
“They’re an experienced team,” Oats said Monday night on his weekly “Hey Coach” radio show. “I looked on KenPom, and we’re 257th in experience and they’re 21st in the country in experience.
“They’ve got some veteran guys. It’s an older group. They’ve got an advantage on us as far as experience goes.”
San Diego State’s starting lineup from its second-round win over Furman included four seniors and one junior. Alabama’s starting lineup since the SEC tournament has included two freshmen in Brandon Miller and Noah Clowney, plus a sophomore in Charles Bediako.
“But our young guys have been super mature and done a great job all year, so I think they’ll continue to prepare well,” Oats continued. “We’ll be ready to go Friday night.”
Alabama is the No. 1 seed in the South region and enters the game ranked No. 2 overall in KenPom, No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
San Diego State is the next-best remaining seed in the region at No. 5, and ranks No. 14 overall in KenPom. The Aztecs sit No. 70 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
“Really good defensive team. Like, really good. They play hard. Our offensive side of the ball is going to have to really get prepared to go against them,” Oats said. “But I mean, we’re a good offensive team. They switch a lot of things.”
The speed each team prefers is also significantly different. Alabama has the fifth-fastest tempo rating on KenPom while San Diego State is 263rd.
“They play a lot slower than us,” Oats explained. “A lot of that is their defense slows people down, because they switch and it takes teams a long time to score. They press, they kind of do a run-and-jump. They’re aggressive, so they try to turn you over, so they score off turnovers. They do a good job.
“They shoot the ball decent. The best things they do on offense are they get to the foul line a lot and they offensive rebound the ball well. Those are the two areas where they’re in the top 100 on KenPom.”
The Aztecs have 29-6 record and won both the Mountain West regular season (15-3) and their conference tournament. They beat No. 12 seed Charleston in the opening round of the NCAA tournament before defeating No. 13 seed Furman in the second round.
San Diego State entered the NCAA tournament ranked No. 14 in NET, with a 5-5 record in Quadrant 1 games, including three wins over Utah State, one over Boise State and one over New Mexico.
“This is a team that really wins the game more on their toughness, their defense, their rebounding, they physicality,” Oats said. “We’re going to have to bring a level of toughness to this game and our guys are going to have to understand that.”
Alabama had a 13-5 record in Quadrant 1, with its top three losses coming against teams that remain in the NCAA tournament — UConn, Gonzaga and Tennessee. After the loss to the Vols in mid-February, Oats said his team needed to handle physicality better.
“We’ve had some issues with the tough, physical teams,” Oats said. “But I think we’ll be alright. We got to bring an intensity about us. But shoot, you get to the Sweet 16 and anybody can beat anybody.”
Friday’s game in Louisville’s KFC Yum! Center begins at 5:30 p.m. CT and airs on TBS. It will be followed by Princeton vs. Creighton, with the winners meeting Sunday in the Elite Eight.
Mike Rodak is an Alabama beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @mikerodak.