Social Security recipients will likely know this week how much of a benefit increase they will see in the new year.

The yearly Cost of Living Adjustments – or COLAs – are determined by data reported in the Consumer Price Index showing the year-over-year change in prices for goods and services for July, August and September. The CPI data is expected to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the second week of the month.

The CPI for September, the final piece of data needed for the calculation, will be announced Oct. 13 and the amount of the increase should come shortly after, most likely that afternoon.

The increase will go into effect with December benefits on checks dated January 2023.

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How much will the increase be?

The upcoming COLA is expected to be the largest in at least four decades, a jump attributed to record-high inflation. The advocacy group the Senior Citizens League estimates the increase will be 8.7%, the highest figure since 1981 when beneficiaries saw an 11.2% increase. Last year’s increase was 5.9%, a significant jump from 2020′s 1.3%.

The average retirees now receives a monthly benefit of $1,656. If SCL’s prediction holds, payments would increase by $144.10.

Social Security benefits are issued on a rollout basis based on beneficiary’s birth date. People born from the first day through the 10th day of the month receive benefits on the second Wednesday of the month; beneficiaries with birthdays between the 11th and the 20th are paid on the third Wednesday. Retirees born between the 21st and the last day of the month are paid on the fourth Wednesday.