The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet so far but has months still to go.

What are forecasters expecting at this point?

Colorado State University issued a forecast update on Wednesday and slightly decreased the number of storms expected before the season ends on Nov. 30.

However, forecasters are still thinking the heart of the season will likely be a busy one.

The updated CSU forecast is predicting 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger storms).

Earlier forecasts predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

NOAA’s hurricane outlook, issued in late May, predicted 13-19 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. NOAA will update its forecast too, but not until early August.

So far in 2025 there have been three tropical storms, Andrea, Barry and Chantal. All of them have been weak and short-lived. But they still mad

Andrea stayed at sea in the central Atlantic and was only a named storm for one day.

Barry made landfall as a tropical depression in late June on Mexico’s Gulf Coast. However, Barry’s remnants helped cause the recent deadly flash flooding in Texas along with another weather system.

Chantal made landfall in the past week in South Carolina and spread flooding rain into the mid-Atlantic states.

Colorado State University has been issuing hurricane outlooks for more than four decades now.

The updated forecast lowers its numbers a bit because of wind shear in the Caribbean, which is expected to continue for a while.

Wind shear tends to dampen tropical activity and can tear storms apart before they can develop.

The CSU forecast said “high levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

But don’t let your guard down yet: The CSU report said Atlantic ocean temperatures continue to be warmer than average (though not as warm as last year) and forecasters are not expecting El Nino to become a factor for a while (El Nino conditions typically favor less activity in the tropical Atlantic).

“We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the updated forecast report said.

“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

And CSU is continuing to forecast an above-average probability for a major hurricane making landfall.

Here are those probabilities in the updated report:

• Entire continental U.S. coastline: 48 percent (average from 1880–2020 is 43 percent)
• U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Fla.): 25 percent (average from 1880–2020 is 21 percent).
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville: 31 percent (average from 1880–2020 is 27 percent).

Read the full forecast update from Colorado State University here.