What are Trump’s odds of getting a third term? Where bettors are putting their money on 2028

Donald Trump’s hints at running for a third term despite the Constitution clearly forbidding it has not stopped an off-shore gambling website from increasing its odds that the president wins another White House bid.

Trump’s odds to win the presidency in 2028 have shot up from 10-to-1 to 6-to-1 at BetOnline, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported.

Paul Krishnamurty, who sets the odds on politics market for BetOnline, told the outlet that other means besides the Constitution explain why the website increased its odds on a Trump third term.

“A potential world war, highly likely ongoing global instability, mass protests and division across the USA … make it likelier that a state of emergency could be called, or that Trump could use the unique circumstances to consolidate power,” he told the Review-Journal.

Over the last week, Middle East tensions grew as the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.

Meanwhile, federal immigration authorities remain in Los Angeles instituting crackdowns that sparked protests.

Vice President JD Vance is the frontrunner for the White House at 2.5-to-1 odds.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is third at 10-to-1, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is fourth at 11-to-1.

But in order to be president, Trump would first have to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

BetOnline’s odds show the president in second place for the GOP nod at 3.5-to-1, behind Vance at 1.2-to-1.

While the Constitution forbids presidents from seeking a third term, Krishnamurty pointed to other possibilities for Trump.

“Many of his opponents believe he wants to be dictator for life, that his agenda, e.g. Project 2025, is a power grab, that he wants to emulate [other dictators] whom he frequently praises,” the oddsmaker said.

“And on his own side, Steve Bannon says he can and will run again. Lindsay Graham implied the same.”

“Therefore, it would, in my view, be wrong to exclude the possibility, ” he said. “Others believe those arguments are nonsense, that the status quo will prevail, and we are offering a ‘No’ option in these markets.”

BetOnline also lists odds on whether Trump will appear on the 2028 presidential election ballot.

“No” is the favorite at 6-to-1, while “yes” is listed as a 3.5-to-1 underdog.