Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth‘s announcement that he will not run for governor of Alabama next year reinforces Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s status as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 race.

Alabama’s senior U.S. Senator will be so hard to beat that he may face no serious challengers, the former chairman of the Alabama Republican Party said.

Former GOP chairman and state senator Bill Armistead said other would-be candidates will likely see the same hard road to victory against Tuberville that Ainsworth apparently saw.

Tuberville is not officially in the race.

The senator, who has said for months he is considering a run for governor instead of seeking a second term in the Senate, told the Associated Press he intends to announce a decision on Tuesday.

No Republican candidates have announced for next year’s primary, which is May 19, 2026.

The winner will succeed Gov. Kay Ivey, who will have been governor just a few months shy of a decade when her term ends in January 2027.

Here are five reasons Tuberville will likely win in 2026:

1. There will be no established GOP challengers

Steve Flowers, an author, longtime political commentator and former state legislator, said he does not see a serious challenge to Tuberville.

“I think he’s in the catbird seat,” Flowers said. “His numbers look really, really good. I think he has a cakewalk.”

“I haven’t seen any polls, but I assume Will has,” Armistead said. “And I feel certain that that’s a strong indication as to why he’s moved on.

“And I think that others that might have thought about running would have second thoughts about it.”

Armistead said he expects other candidates to be on the ballot in the primary next year, but probably none with a realistic chance to defeat Tuberville.

“Even though it’s a year out, I cannot see a major opponent to him in the Republican primary,” Armistead said.

“Certainly not in the general election.”

In addition to Ainsworth’s decision not to run, twice-elected state Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate dropped his plans to consider a run for governor when he learned Tuberville was likely to run.

Pate said only Nick Saban could beat Tuberville and turned his attention to a possible run for lieutenant governor.

Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall announced he would not run for governor. Marshall said he would consider running for the Senate if Tuberville does not.

“He got the current lieutenant governor out,” said Jess Brown, former political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of elections.

“The current attorney general says he’s not running. Rick Pate said he’s not running…Even the specter of a Tuberville candidate appears to be clearing the field.”

2. He doesn’t want to stay in Washington

Armistead said he believes Tuberville will choose the governor’s race over six more years in Washington.

“He loves Alabama,” Armistead said.

“He wants to be in the place that he can make the biggest difference for the people of Alabama. And I think he realizes that would be serving as governor.

“I think this is a natural move for him and I’ve been expecting it for some time. And I think we’ll be hearing an official announcement here in a few days that that’s where he’s headed.”

3. No Fob James is waiting to run

Flowers said he has thought over the last few years that the end of Ivey’s long tenure would open the door for a newcomer, a first-time candidate with wealth from success in business in the mold of Fob James.

James was a political upstart who shocked three establishment candidates to win his first election in 1978.

Flowers said he now thinks the emergence of a Fob-like candidate is unlikely.

“I think Tuberville’s persona and numbers are so strong, especially among the conservative base of the Republican party – and that’s who votes in the Republican primary – I don’t see it happening,” Flowers said.

Brown said Sen. Katie Britt might be the only Alabama politician who could beat Tuberville.

Britt, of course, is just two years into her first term as senator and is not running for governor.

“I don’t see any of the others that could,” Brown said. “And they must feel the same way. I mean, he’s pretty much cleared the field already.”

4. GOP doesn’t care about his ‘Florida man’ problem

Brown said one potential problem for Tuberville could be a legal challenge to whether he meets the residency requirement for a governor in the state constitution.

It says the governor must live in the state “at least seven years next before the date of their election.”

When Tuberville retired from coaching in 2017, he recorded a promotional video for ESPN saying he had moved to Santa Rosa Beach, Fla.

AL.com reported in April that Tuberville and his wife Suzanne still have two homes in Santa Rosa, including a beach house valued at more than $5 million. The senator claims a homestead exemption on a home in Auburn.

Jeff Sessions raised the residency issue against Tuberville during their Senate race in 2020.

Senators don’t have the seven-year residency requirement though, and the accusation of being a Florida man didn’t hurt Tuberville with voters. He handily defeated Sessions.

Brown said Republican voters in the governor’s race will probably not be concerned with Tuberville’s residency.

“I don’t sense it’s going to be a major factor in the decision-making of a lot of voters,” Brown said.

“I think it should, obviously. Because it goes beyond the legal question of whether you meet the constitutional requirements. It is this whole question of, should the governor of Alabama be someone with deep roots in the state?”

Even if there is a legal challenge, Brown said the Alabama Supreme Court – nine Republican justices – would have the last word.

“I think it’s going to be difficult to keep him off the ballot with the residency question,” Brown said.

“But I think that’s something that I figure is still an interesting question.”

Flowers said he believes the state Republican Party will back Tuberville on the residency question.

Like Brown, he noted that the state Supreme Court would likely overrule any potential decision that went against Tuberville in a lower court.

Flowers said he believes Tuberville can fend off the questions by pointing out that he has been representing Alabama for six years in Washington.

“So I think he’s home-free on the residency thing, is my guess,” Flowers said.

Armistead agrees and said the residency questions are just an attempted distraction.

“I don’t think that is an important issue that most Alabamians would consider even worth thinking about,” Armistead said.

5. No one is ‘more Trumpian’

Brown said Tuberville’s close ties to Trump, which he has nurtured since launching his campaign for the Senate six years ago, are another asset challengers would find hard to match.

Trump, in his speech at the University of Alabama earlier this month, called Tuberville a “wonderful man, a friend of mine.”

In 2020, Trump endorsed Tuberville over Sessions in the GOP primary runoff and praised Tuberville in an election eve call to Alabama.

“He’s going to take over and he’s going to be representing you and representing you well. He’s going to have a cold, direct line into my office. That I can tell you,” Trump said in 2020.

Devotion to Trump has become essential for successful GOP campaigns in Alabama, Brown said.

“We’ve seen all the candidates for major office, almost all of them, have to go out and declare themselves as loyal Trumpians,” Brown said.

“And I can’t see anybody who’s going to be able to run in a Republican primary for governor who’s going to be able to have a record of being more Trumpian than Senator Tuberville.

“As far as loyalty to Trump, he’s your number one candidate.”

Armistead said Tuberville is the frontrunner because his positions are aligned with the philosophy of most Alabamians.

“It’s a year out from the election and anything can happen,” Armistead said.

“But I think Coach Tuberville is definitely on the pathway to becoming Governor Tuberville.”