Talk of a DOGE stimulus check funded through cuts by the Elon Musk-led agency has circulated since the Trump administration took office. But how likely is it that taxpayers will see a payment?

Much remains to be decided.

Azoria Investment CEO first floated the idea of a DOGE stimulus check in a viral TikTok video that said taxpayers should be in line for thousands of dollars.

“American taxpayers deserve a ‘DOGE Dividend’: 20% the money that DOGE saves should be sent back to hard-working Americans as a tax refund check,” Fishback said. “It was their money in the first place! At $2 trillion in DOGE savings and 78 million tax-paying households, this is a $5,000 refund per household, with the remaining used to pay down the national debt. @ElonMusk, let’s do this! This is how we rebuild trust in our government.”

Trump and Musk indicated they would be on board with the plan.

“I love it. A 20% dividend, so to speak, for the money that we’re saving by going after the waste and fraud and abuse and all of the other things that are happening,” Trump said, adding the payments “could be a lot.”

There’s a big if to the whole idea, however. Any stimulus would have to be approved by Congress and the amount of the payments would depend on DOGE accomplishing the full $2 trillion in cuts, something that many have called into doubt. DOGE has reportedly saved some $160 billion so far, equal to about $993 per taxpayer, The Hill reported.

Fishback remains hopeful the DOGE checks will come – in time. In an interview with Chris Cuomo reported by USA Today, the CEO was asked if he thought the payments were going to happen.

“Yes, I really do believe it will happen and I’ve got unique information because I’ve been on the Hill for the last two weeks, meeting with members in the House and Senate,” he said. “I am very optimistic this will happen.”

According to reports, the checks would only be sent to households that are net-income tax payers, meaning they are paying more in taxes than they receive back. The checks would be issued per household rather than for individual taxpayers.

There is a precedent for stimulus checks.

During the COVID pandemic, people received three separate stimulus payments: $1,200 per person in March 2020, $600 per person in December 2020 and $1,400 per person in March 2021.