Experts share how Alabama-owned horse could win 2025 Kentucky Derby
The state of Alabama will be well represented in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. In addition to Publisher, who is owned by Gus King of Guntersville, in conjunction with the estate of late Kentucky governor Brereton Jones, the Yellowhammer State can fully claim Coal Battle, owned by Thomasville grocery store owner Robbie Norman.
Coal Battle, trained by Lonnie Briley, is a huge longshot on the morning line at 30-1 odds. However, in a race that Rich Strike won at 80-1 in 2022, nobody can be counted out.
The colt enters the race with four stakes wins on his record, including the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn. Byron King, news editor at BloodHorse, when asked how Coal Battle could win the Kentucky Derby, pointed to the experience level.
“He is already an existing stakes winner on a muddy track and there is a high probability of rain (Saturday),” King said. “Plus, he’s a horse who accelerates much faster than some of his counterparts, which may allow him to hit some holes in a race filled with a ton of traffic.”
A wet track could serve to slow down some of the speed in the race. That could work to Coal Battle’s advantage, as he tends to come running from behind.
The colt will break from the No. 16 post position, well outside most of the field. Ed DeRosa of Horse Racing Nation emphasized how important the start would be.
“He’s definitely going to want to save some ground going into the first turn,” DeRosa said. “As we saw in the Arkansas Derby, he’s very capable of a strong middle move. I know some people thought he moved too soon in that race. I thought he was ridden to win, which is great. Didn’t sustain the rally. If he’s gonna sustain his rally in the Kentucky Derby though, he absolutely is going to have to save ground to conserve energy for the run. Maybe can get away with being a little wide on the far turn, but from that post, saving ground early is key for him.”
Juan Vargas will be aboard Coal Battle for the race. He has been in the irons for all of the colt’s stakes wins, and his third-place finish last time out in the Arkansas Derby.
Sara Elbadwi, a handicapper for the New York Racing Association, shared what she thought would be key to a potential Coal Battle win in the Derby.
“A patient ride, his tactical ability, getting a good trip of course,” Elbadwi said. “And coming to the race prepared, fit and ready, more so than he was in the Arkansas Derby. His trainer said that he didn’t really feel as though he had him 100% cranked up and worked the way that he fully wanted going into that race, but that things are going to be different going into the (Kentucky) Derby, so he thinks that there’s more in the tank.”
The Kentucky Derby is scheduled to go to post at approximately 5:57 p.m. CT. It will be aired on NBC.